Negotiators working to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have largely focused their attention on proposals for a two-state solution. That work presumes at least the tacit consent of both Israeli and Palestinian populations to agree to and abide by the terms of such a compromise.
However, after Oct. 7, 2023, Israeli public support for a two-state solution plummeted, while Israeli opposition increased. And while most Gazans now support a two-state solution, strong majorities of both Israelis and Palestinians said they do not believe that the opposing side would respect their rights as a sovereign and independent people, underscoring the ongoing difficulties that negotiators face.
Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor Ben Weingarten reviews recent survey data on Israeli and Palestinian public opinion and shares his analysis on the implications of this data.
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The following is an excerpt of the above video:
In fact, the polling of the civilian population – which is never talked about by U.S. leaders nor their global counterparts – is really worth parsing. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research has been polling Palestinian Arabs in Gaza and Judea and Samaria for years, providing one of the few credible indicators we have of the population’s sentiment. Here’s what the center found in its most recent round of polling, dated April 15, 2024:
Seventy-one percent say Hamas’ decision to launch the Oct. 7th attack was correct – up 14% in Gaza since Dec. ’23.
Seventy percent are “satisfied” with Hamas’ “performance” in the war, highest among all options between Hamas; its leader Sinwar (61%); Fatah, which polls at a mere 27%, and its leader Abbas (just 14%).
Ninety-one percent think Hamas did not commit war crimes during the Israel-Hamas war.
Fifty-nine percent want Hamas to control the Gaza Strip after the war – 64% in Judea and Samaria and 52% in the Gaza Strip.
Seventy-three percent oppose a “long-term vision for the day after [the war] in which the U.S. and an Arab coalition comprising Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan would develop a plan that would strengthen the Palestinian Authority, restore negotiations based on the two-state solution, and bring about an Arab-Israeli peace and normalization.”
Thirty-four percent – a plurality – support Hamas over Fatah (17%) and other political parties or trends.
Seventy percent would vote for Hamas’ Haniyeh as a leader in a one-on-one presidential contest with Fatah’s Abbas.
Forty-six percent – a plurality – believe “armed struggle” is the most effective method to “to end the Israeli occupation and establish an independent state.”
And yes, again, a majority – 52% – oppose the idea of a “two-state solution.”
The entire public conversation in America is completely and totally unmoored not only from what Israelis want, but from what Palestinian Arabs want. These figures show that our leaders and again the international community are operating in a dream world – that the terms they are trying to dictate are opposed by the parties they impact. And they ignore the uncomfortable truth that the Palestinian Arab population is largely with Hamas, likely because they can’t grapple with the implications of it. But anyone who wants to credibly talk about a day after in Gaza has to grapple with these numbers.