With the United States Congress finally passing another major defensive aid package and France now threatening to send its own armed forces in to defend Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is promising his people that Russia is prepared to fight a long, protracted war for however long it takes. But how realistic is that promise?
Straight Arrow News contributor Leon Aron takes a look at the Russian economy and current trends to forecast whether or not Russia is, in fact, prepared to fight a much longer war in Ukraine.
While Ukraine is being ravaged by Russian bombs and missiles, the Kremlin is telling the world and the Russian people that it could indefinitely fight what Vladimir Putin calls a “long war.” But could it, really?
Putin’s game is to have enough in blood and treasure to pay for the war while preserving social peace at home and waiting for a breakdown in Ukraine’s morale and for “Ukraine fatigue” to set in the West.
He has been successful so far at home. But the mole of war is burrowing day and night into the Kremlin’s stores of money and men. A day of war costs the Kremlin an estimated $300 million.
Although a great deal of this amount has been covered by oil and gas sales, in order to pay for a huge expansion of the military-industrial complex, Putin had to withdraw $38 billion last year from the National Welfare Fund, Russia’s piggy bank of last resort.
The civilian economy is being starved for investment and workers. The funding for education, health care and utilities maintenance has been slashed. Taxes are set to be raised, and inflation is heating up, especially for the key staples of most Russians such as eggs, sugar and chicken. And then there are the Western sanctions.