MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, October 20, 2021

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Baseball was, once again, wild yesterday. The Astros and Red Sox had three runs scored through seven innings. The Astros put up one run in the eighth to tie it, then scored seven in the top of the ninth, finally breaking their bats out. The same can be said about the Dodgers – they finally had an offensive awakening. Corey Seager hit a home run early in the game, but Walker Buehler was chased early from the game. After looking like they would go down 3-0 in the series, they stormed back and won 6-5. We have two games again tonight, let’s see if there are any betting angles.

Astros vs. Red Sox

Framber Valdez was pulled early in his last start for the Astros against the Red Sox. It was the opener of the series and he allowed two earned runs over 2.2 innings. I feel like managers have way too quick of a hook in the playoffs, but Valdez didn’t look particularly sharp in his start, walking three batters. If he has control, he can be pretty effective. At Fenway this year, Valdez went 7.1 innings, allowed five hits and just one earned run. The key in that game, he had no walks The Red Sox offense is still very hot, although they cooled a bit last night. Today they get ace Chris Sale on the mound. Sale too was pulled after just 2.2 innings in the series opener. He was removed after 61 pitches and just one earned run allowed. He wasn’t missing many bats though as he allowed five hits and got only eight outs. Tonight, it appears that the wind will be blowing from left to right field. I lean towards the Red Sox winning this game. Both bullpens are tired, and neither starter has been good, so instead of a side, I’ll take the over 9.5 runs at -114.

Braves vs. Dodgers

If the Braves weren’t up two games yesterday, it would’ve been devastating. Instead, they got a bit of a taste of their own medicine in losing a game late. The dog of Game 2, Julio Urias is pitching for the Dodgers. After surrendering the lead (in a game I still don’t think he should’ve been in) Urias may now not be able to go quite as long in the game tonight. In the one inning against the Braves, he allowed the same amount of runs as he did in nine innings against the Giants. Against the Braves in the regular season, he has allowed just three earned runs in 11 innings. If Urias didn’t pitch a few days ago, I’d probably play over his 5.5 strikeout total, but I also can’t take the under at -160 because it just seems too juicy for me (even though it probably hits). The Braves have not announced a starter, but are looking at a bullpen game. They have had their starters go deeper into games so this might position themselves better than the Dodgers who have needed to use their bullpen a lot and did it again last night. The Braves bullpen has just a 2.70 ERA this playoffs so they are pitching great. My play for this game is the Braves over 3 runs at -114. I feel that the Dodgers’ arms are tired, not that they will lose the game, but they should allow runs to a very good Atlanta team.

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Author: David Troy


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