MLB Best Bets for Saturday, September 25, 2021

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We have a nice slate of matchups on this early Fall afternoon, let’s look at some that have playoff impact and others that don’t. What we really care about is winning money though.

Nationals vs. Reds

I have very little faith in Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez. At home, Gutierrez has a 5.51 ERA and in September, his overall ERA is even worse – 7.63. In his last two home games, against soft-hitting teams the Tigers and Pirates, he’s allowed nine total runs over 6.2 innings pitched. Don’t get me wrong, Erick Fedde, the starter for the Nationals, doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing hitters. He also has a 5+ run ERA as a road starter, but I can’t make the Reds a favorite today and will take the Nationals to win at +110.

White Sox vs. Indians

Lance Lynn hasn’t exactly fallen off the face of the earth, but he certainly is no longer the dominant pitcher he was for the first four-ish months of the season. He still has great stats overall and on the road is just a 2.25 ERA pitcher. He has faced Cleveland three times this season and allowed eight earned over 16 innings pitched. Eli Morgan, though, has been really bad at home for the Indians. He has an 8.31 ERA over 9 starts and has allowed 31 earned runs over 36 innings pitched. This will be his first time against the White Sox, and that is a dangerous team. I am going to play this game as an under for the Indians total runs at under 3.5 -128, but also play the Sox over 5 runs at -110. If you prefer only one bet, play the over 8.5, but the total is a bit harder for me than just the individual team performances.

Mets vs. Brewers

Neither one of these teams is very great at making contact and scoring a ton of runs. Tonight they also have two pitchers that are capable of posting a bunch of scoreless innings. For the Mets, Rich Hill is not always going deep into the game (sometimes as little as three innings) but he also isn’t allowing more than three earned runs in his starts. Corbin Burnes has a 2.34 ERA and has been outstanding for the majority of the season. I’d love this play if he was on the road, but instead, I like it and think it stays low-scoring. Play the under 7.5 runs at -120.   

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Author: David Troy


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