Market Talk – February 23, 2021

ASIA:

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 closed
  • Shanghai decreased 6.09 points or -0.17% to 3,636.36
  • Hang Seng increased 312.81 points or 1.03% to 30,632.64
  • ASX 200 increased 58.30 points or 0.86% to 6,839.20
  • Kospi decreased 9.66 points or -0.31% to 3,070.09
  • SENSEX increased 7.09 points or 0.01% to 49,751.41
  • Nifty50 increased 32.10 points or 0.22% to 14,707.80

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.00169 or -0.21% to 0.79017
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00013 or 0.02% to 0.73313
  • USDJPY increased 0.21 or 0.20% to 105.18
  • USDCNY increased 0.00385 or 0.06% to 6.46681

Precious Metals:

  • Gold decreased 0.48 USD/t oz. or -0.03% to 1,808.18
  • Silver decreased 0.55 USD/t. oz or -1.96% to 27.607

Some economic news from last night:

China:

House Prices (YoY) (Jan) increased from 3.8% to 3.9%

South Korea:

Consumer Confidence (Feb) increased from 95.4 to 97.4

New Zealand:

Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) decreased from 28.0% to -2.7%

Retail Sales Quarterly Vs. Year Ago (Q4) decreased from 8.3% to 4.8%

Indonesia:

Motorbike Sales (YoY) increased from -45.10% to -17.30%

M2 Money Supply (YoY) (Jan) decreased from 12.40% to 11.80%

Some economic news from today:

Singapore:

CPI (YoY) (Jan) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%

EUROPE/EMEA:

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

  • CAC 40 increased 12.40 points or 0.22% to 5,779.84
  • FTSE 100 increased 13.70 points or 0.21% to 6,625.94
  • DAX 30 decreased 85.23 points or -0.61% to 13,864.81

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00197 or -0.16% to 1.21466
  • GBPUSD increased 0.00279 or 0.20% to 1.40982
  • USDCHF increased 0.00684 or 0.76% to 0.90250

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb) increased from -50 to -45

Average Earnings ex Bonus (Dec) increased from 3.6% to 4.1%

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) increased from 3.7% to 4.7%

Claimant Count Change (Jan) increased from -20.4K to -20.0K

Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Dec) decreased from -88K to -114K

Labour Productivity decreased from 4.0% to -1.1%

Unemployment Rate (Dec) increased from 5.0% to 5.1%

 

Swiss:

PPI (YoY) (Jan) increased from -2.3% to -2.1%

PPI (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.5% to 0.3%

Italy:

Italian Industrial New Orders (YoY) (Dec) increased from 5.0% to 7.0%

Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) (Dec) increased from -1.4% to 1.7%

Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Dec) increased from -4.60% to -0.50%

Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Dec) increased from -2.00% to 1.00%

Euro Zone:

Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) remain the same at -0.5%

Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) increased from 0.2% to 1.4%

CPI (YoY) (Jan) increased from -0.3% to 0.9%

CPI (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.3% to 0.2%

CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.3% to 0.2%

CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jan) increased from -0.4% to 0.8%

HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jan) remain the same at 1.4%

HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jan) decreased from 0.3% to -0.3%

US/AMERICAS:

Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress during his semi-annual testimony that the US economy remains volatile and “highly uncertain” due to the coronavirus. Powell noted that a resurgence of cases and variants of the virus hurt economic activity and job creation. Powell has long warned that high levels of unemployment were of utmost concern, with the current unemployment rate sitting at an estimated 6.3%; however, Powell believes the figure is closer to 10%. “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved,” Powell stated.

In terms of interest rates, the chairman stated that he expects them to remain in place until 2023 unless conditions change. The Fed will not raise rates until the “labor markets have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time,” he noted. Powell is not against another large stimulus package or its impact on inflation.

US home prices have grown at their fastest pace since 2014, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Index. Home prices rose 10.4% YoY in December, surpassing Bloomberg analysts’ estimates of 9.9%. San Diego, Seattle, and Phoenix saw the most notable gains across the US. Analysts note that buyers are migrating away from cities to the suburbs. Despite the high price time, supply is at a record low as are mortgage rates which have created a seller’s market.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 15.66 points or 0.05% to 31,537.35
  • S&P 500 advanced 4.87 points or 0.13% to 3,881.37
  • Nasdaq declined 67.85 points or -0.5% to 13,465.2
  • Russell 2000 declined 19.76 points or -0.88% to 2,231.31

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 86.65 points or -0.47% to 18,330.09
  • TSX 60 declined 3.66 poinys or -0.33% to 1,090.58

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 2,559.76 points or 2.27% to 115,227.46

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

  • Crude Oil decreased 0.02 USD/BBL or -0.03% to 61.6800
  • Brent increased 0.15 USD/BBL or 0.23% to 65.3900
  • Natural gas decreased 0.05 USD/MMBtu or -1.69% to 2.9030
  • Gasoline increased 0.0144 USD/GAL or 0.78% to 1.8561
  • Heating oil increased 0.0027 USD/GAL or 0.15% to 1.8613
  • Top commodity gainers: Soybeans (2.58%), Canola (2.91%), Bitumen (3.54%) and Soda Ash (5.55%)
  • Top commodity losers: Lumber (-2.11%), Silver (-1.96%), Palladium (-2.43%), and Platinum (-3.07%)

The above data was collected around 12:40 EST on Tuesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.12%(+2bp), US 2’s 0.00%(-0.00%), US 10’s 1.36%(-1bps); US 30’s 2.00%(+0.02%), Bunds -0.32% (+6bp), France -0.08% (+1bp), Italy 0.66% (+6bp), Turkey 12.65% (-1bp), Greece 0.93% (+4bp), Portugal 0.28% (+6bp); Spain 0.38% (+11bp) and UK Gilts 0.72% (+4bp).

 

  • UK 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction increased from 0.837% to 1.302%
  • US 2-Year Note Auction decreased from 0.125% to 0.000%
  • US 52-Week Bill Auction decreased from 0.090% to 0.070%

 

The post Market Talk – February 23, 2021 first appeared on Armstrong Economics.

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Author: Martin Armstrong


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