Lord Hannan of Kingsclere was a Conservative MEP from 1999 to 2020, and is now President of the Institute for Free Trade.
If Rishi Sunak is right about a hung parliament, he could make a great deal of money. Paddy Power and Betfair are offering 13/2 on no overall majority after the next election, Ladbrokes 7/1 and William Hill 8/1.
Why are the odds so far removed from the extrapolation of the local elections? After all Thrasher and Rallings, the Plymouth professors who carried out the study, are the gold standard in British political analysis. When they say that the figures would translate into a hung parliament, we can believe them.
Except, obviously, that last week’s poll wasn’t a general election. It took place only in England, and patchily at that; Reform contested few seats; various pro-Palestinian parties and independents offered left-wing voters a free hit; the war in Gaza may be over by the general election.
The bookies are reflecting the consensus of both punters and pundits: Labour is on course to win big. Sure, there might be some black swan event. We have had a few of these over the past eight years, most recently the arrests at the top of the SNP. The Conservative Party must hold itself in readiness in case some unforeseen catastrophe overtakes Labour.
But suppose the polls are right, and that Sir Keir Starmer wins a big majority. What would it mean for the two main parties?
One immediate consequence is that the next Tory leader would say much sounder things. I write this, not because I have the slightest idea of who she (or he) will be, but because Tory leaders always say sounder things in Opposition. One of the few perks of the position is that you can ignore the inevitable compromises of office: the difficult civil servants, the blocking backbench minorities, the hostile opinion polls.
For example, you can say: “Why don’t we just turn dinghies back in the Channel?”. When Boris Johnson tried that, the Royal Navy told him flatly that it was both impractical and illegal. But, out of office, you don’t need to worry about such details.
Similarly, you can airily promise more houses. When the Conservatives attempted to ease our planning laws in 2020, they were defeated by a coalition Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and NIMBY backbenchers. But complexities like that need not trouble an Opposition leader.
You can demand that we leave the ECHR. You make it sound easy. Now, on balance, I think we should indeed leave the ECHR. The outrageous ruling against Switzerland on net zero convinced me that we are dealing with a campaign group masquerading as a court.
But let’s not pretend that it will be straightforward. Our legal establishment, our quangocracy and our civil service will put up the same fight that they did over Brexit. Withdrawal will consume the government’s energies for years.
Now you might think that the fight is worth having; and, on balance, I agree. But the impatient, dismissive tone in which people demand withdrawal suggests that they have given little thought to how to do it. “Why can’t we just walk away?” is a slogan, not a policy.
Think back to the last Tory leadership election. All the candidates, as far as I remember, promised tax cuts. I’m pretty sure they still want them. But other things get in the way – bond markets, the OBR and, above all, an electorate that wants higher spending.
Now don’t get me wrong. Over 14 years, the Tories have made plenty of unforced errors, starting with their failure to repeal the Human Rights Act and the Equality Act, and running through to their preposterous decision to apply customs checks to EU imports.
Many of their critics, though, seem unwilling to consider the trade-offs intrinsic in government. Most human beings want contradictory things, often at the same time. We might want to help Ukraine but to have low energy bills. We might want cheaper homes but no development near us. We might have supported lockdown, but be angry at the consequent tax and price rises.
In each case, confronting these trade-offs is a far more laborious task than declaring that MPs Just Don’t Get It.
The problem is intrinsic in government. Which is why, just as the Conservatives begin to say more popular things, Labour will start letting down its supporters.
A big majority usually suggests a measure of goodwill for the incoming government. But Starmer will not have it, at least not on the scale that Tony Blair had when Labour last came into office.
Impatient Reform voters have their mirror image in those Labour supporters who are convinced that the only reason we don’t live in a better world is that we are governed by Bad People, and that as soon as the Good People take over, everything will improve.
Both sets of voters are blind to the long-term costs of the lockdown (though, on both sides, some have now edited their memories and think they were against it from the start). Both demand that MPs Just Sort It Out.
Yet the election will not change the fact Britain is spending vastly more than it can afford. Even if Labour goes for some smash-and-grab tax rises, it won’t be able to give its public-sector supporters the pay rises they are expecting. The economy will remain depressed until the weight of excessive government is reduced. The sense that nothing seems to work properly will quickly attach itself to Labour.
This is not a counsel of complacency, by the way. Labour won’t go quietly after a single term. It will give the vote to 16-year-olds, and possibly to foreigners, in an attempt to cling to office.
But the inflated expectations, the short attention spans, the facile dismissiveness – these things have been on the rise since smartphones and social media began to distort our politics. And they show no sign of going away.
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Author: Daniel Hannan
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