Cllr Cameron Smith is a councillor in Bexley and the Head of Communications for Onward.
“I do not for one minute believe that this election shows that London has been transformed overnight into a Conservative city,” declared Boris Johnson after his first mayoral victory in 2008. Instead, he pinned the win on a “changed” Conservative Party that Londoners could trust again with the “greatest, most cosmopolitan, multi-racial, generous-hearted city on earth”.
Sixteen years and three mayoral defeats later, London’s Conservatives are now at our lowest-ever ebb across much of the capital. The question isn’t why London has moved away from us, but how we can change again to catch up.
There’s no point kidding ourselves about the severity of the challenge in London. Yes, we can point to some recent successes: Jason Perry’s mayoral victory in Croydon two years ago, Harrow Conservatives retaking the council, and Steve Tuckwell’s by-election win.
But Susan Hall’s mayoral defeat is the latest in an overwhelmingly clear trend in London; we’re losing ground consistently and mostly permanently. Our councillor numbers dropped down to a record low, with just over 400 elected in 2022, and some opinion polls forecast us catastrophically losing all but five of the parliamentary constituencies we hold later this year.
Hall’s best hope was to run on an anti-ULEZ ticket, which promised to mobilise many voters in traditionally Conservative-leaning outer boroughs. Her strategy was also pinned on believing that most Londoners had tired of Sadiq Khan’s failings and would stay at home.
It was a fair assumption. After all, in normal politics any mayor who presides over both the police and fire service going into special measures, run-away knife crime, council tax hikes, unpopular driving charges, and lacklustre housebuilding should be shown the door.
But it’s led to our worst mayoral result in London in two decades. There are simply too few Conservative voters left in the capital, even in outer boroughs.
The reason we’re losing isn’t surprising. Our capital is a young, diverse city of renters: Four-in-ten Londoners were born abroad; fewer than half own a home; the median age is five years below the rest of England (35 to 40).
London’s rapidly-changing tapestry isn’t going anywhere – and nor should it. It’s what makes the city great, and is a sign of its success as a global centre.
But these demographics perfectly map our electoral failings. Two years ago, we won four times fewer council seats in boroughs where homeownership has tanked; most London Conservative MPs hold home-owning and homogenous constituencies.
We need to substantially change our message to reach out to new voters. The conservative movement is too negative about London, downbeat on devolution, and talks more about cars than bikes, buses, or trains. Nor does it talk enough about building clean and green communities to answer people’s anger about lack of housing, air quality, and environmental decline.
We need a return to Boris’s boosterism about London. He banged on about buses, City Hall, and London’s prowess in fields from sport to financial services; it says it all that his London legacy is a bike. Until we start doing this again, we’ll never regain the right to be heard in London.
As Lord Ashcroft‘s recent research showed, Khan isn’t personally unpopular despite his failings. Londoners are more likely to lay the blame at the Government’s door rather than City Hall, where it often lies. This is why Khan’s multitude of failings haven’t moved the dial in our favour.
It’s also why we should be the boldest advocates for devolution in London and powering up the London Assembly. Ending the complicated “who is responsible for what” is electorally necessary, as well as critical to delivering a safer, more affordable, and better-connected city.
But until we’ve won the right to be heard again, London Labour will paint us successfully as the (dare I say it) nasty party. Khan’s universal free school meals are a middle-class bung, his pre-election fares freeze financially irresponsible, his rent control plans are a failed socialist pipedream, and the ULEZ expansion is hurting working people.
But when Londoners already think our party isn’t for them, compassionate or green, our arguments confirm what they fear. It’s only when we’ve proved ourselves as on London’s side again that voters will listen to us on areas they’re inclined to trust us on, like policing and crime.
Rebuilding also means changing policies. The two areas that need an urgent rethink are housing and transport.
London Conservatives should be the radical party of homeownership, adopting policies to support beautiful, gentle densification while protecting the green belt; thankfully, Britain Remade has already laid out a few ideas.
The Party must also be the voice for pedestrians, cyclists, and public transport users in London, not just motorists. Nothing is unconservative about helping more people travel by foot, bike, bus, or rail, and ensuring cars don’t dominate communities. Our policies should reflect that, offering a clear green alternative to Labour’s war-on-the-motorist approach.
Renewal isn’t an option but a necessity. London politics is increasingly dominated by the people to whom the party most struggles to appeal. Millennials will be the largest cohort in 67 of London’s 75 seats come the next election, homeownership rates will be less than half in 47, and ethnic minority voters will make up a majority of 28.
The Conservative Party can’t afford to be locked out of London politics permanently; no national party can write off over a tenth of parliamentary seats, the nation’s capital, or the national economy’s primary engine. The Party will also face similar demographic challenges elsewhere, especially with millennials, who are the first generation not to get more Conservative as they age. London is our chance to get ahead of a growing problem across the country.
There are no excuses not to change. We can’t blame the London mayoral election result solely on Hall: she ran the best campaign she could with the resources given. Nor is it solely symptomatic of the national party’s woes; these challenges have been building for decades in London.
This argument also shouldn’t be written off by the handful of content Conservatives in the few outer boroughs we still win. We owe it to our voters to build a broader coalition capable of winning back City Hall. Nor is this a call to “build our vote out”; a huge problem we face is we’ve failed to build our vote in with decent, affordable family homes.
So, how do we go about it? There are three choices: the Conservatives nationally move to rebuild in London, a mayoral-led approach, or a reformed London Conservative Party.
Whatever happens at the general election later this year, the Conservatives will need to renew across the country to win big again. The party will need to build back one step at a time, and building support again in London is unlikely to be one initially.
There’s a possibility a future mayoral candidate, with enough stature could start the renewal. As Ben Houchen has shown in Tees Valley, voters may back their preferred mayoral candidate even when the national party is rejected. Once elected, they can spearhead a wider rival.
But, in London, a mayoral campaign is almost the equivalent to a Scottish Parliamentary election: nearly 2.5 million people voted for the capital’s mayor on Thursday, only about 220,000 fewer than those turning out for Holyrood in 2021. Standing for any mayoralty is gruelling, but in London, it’s another level.
It’s simply not possible to attract a superb candidate without the beginnings of a revival already underway. Nor can a revival happen without a mayoral standard bearer.
That’s why we need a reconstituted London Conservative Party, as Gareth Bacon MP has argued before. Distinct but not totally independent, like the Scottish and Welsh parties, with its own identity and party machinery, accountable leadership, and distinctive messages and policies, working slowly but consistently to retake City Hall, town halls, and, ultimately, return more Conservatives to Parliament.
We know Khan is beatable, and we know Labour is failing London. But our party’s support is going backwards. We can’t bleat on about how London has changed; we must change with it. Many London Conservatives know this and are already attempting to put these ideas into practice, but we don’t have the vehicle or brand to get them elected and into power.
A renewal is overdue, and it will start with a radically reformed London Conservative Party.
The post Cameron Smith: To win back the capital, we need a London Conservative Party appeared first on Conservative Home.
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