Paul Goodman blogging.
Tonight’s general election has been fought in three battlegrounds. Scotland. The Midlands and North. And what we call Remainia – London and its relatively well-off hinterland. (This is a very crude picture, and doesn’t take into other big areas such as the South-West, but it serves a purpose.)
Perhaps 20 per cent of the electorate has voted by post. One CCHQ estimate is that as many as 25 per cent of voters will have made up their minds on the day; a pollster estimate is that this figure will be nearer 10 per cent.
In very broad terms, ConHome hears that the main parties agree that London has been bad for the Conservatives and the rest of provincial England good. One account held that Labour is “bullish”, the Tories “quietly confident”…and of course there has been no opinion poll herding.
The consensus view as close of polls loom is that the Conservatives will win a majority. But the consensus has been wrong before. What about tactical voting? Differential turnout? Turnout itself? The parties’ ground game? Last minute swing?
Which famous names will lose their seats this evening? What of Jo Swinson’s leadership? The future of Nigel Farage? How many votes will Dominic Grieve, David Gauke and Anne Milton get? What will happen in Scotland and Wales – and Northern Ireland? Not long to go now until we all find out.
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Author: Conservative Home
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