2020 Electoral Math: Trump Up Big in 17 States, Down Big in 16

A new Gallup poll of President Donald Trump’s approval rating offers some insights into the 2020 battleground landscape more than a year and a half ahead of Election Day.

According to the results, Trump’s approval rating is 50 percent or higher in 17 states. Among them are South Carolina, Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana.

Notably, the president’s rating is below 40 percent in 16 states, including New York, California, Illinois, and Minnesota.

The states in which Trump is 50 percent or above constitute 102 electoral votes, while the states that put Trump below 40 percent add up to 201 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

That means that the states in the 40-49% ranges will likely have an outsize role in determining the outcome of the 2020 election. The states are a familiar set for those well versed in presidential politics: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, to name a few.

Some states in the 40-49% range will be critical for Trump to win, however, if he is to have a shot at reelection. They include reliably red states like Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, and North Carolina.

Still, while job approval numbers are important, the 2020 election will ultimately come down to a choice between Trump and whomever the Democrats nominate next year. Much will change between now and then, but this Gallup polls gives political observers some important numbers to analyze in the meantime.

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Author: Jeff Bechdel


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