We’re winding down coverage of this live blog.

Here’s the bottom line: NVIDIA’s quarterly results were very good. The stock is down about 3% after hours, but was up 51% in the past six months. The drop is more do to very high expectations headed into earnings rather than anything we see as a ‘red flag.’

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Here’s a summary of all of Wall Street’s questions along with NVIDIA’s response:

CJ Muse (Cantor)

Q: With 12-month wafer-to-rack lead times and Rubin on track for 2H, what’s the growth vision into 2026, and network vs. data center split?
A: Growth is driven by “agentic/reasoning” AI, which can require 100×–1,000× more compute than one-shot chat. NVIDIA built the NVLink-72 rack-scale Blackwell system for this moment, delivering big speed/efficiency gains in token generation. Over ~5 years, NVIDIA expects to scale Blackwell → Rubin (and successors) into a ~$3–$4 trillion AI-infrastructure opportunity; top 4 CSP capex has already doubled to ~$600B/year.

Vivek Arya (BofA)

Q1: What must happen to realize the $2–$5B China revenue this quarter, and what’s sustainable into Q4?
A: There’s demand for H20; NVIDIA has supply and initial licenses. The actual range depends on additional licenses and geopolitical dynamics. More approvals → more H20 shipments.

Q2: Do customer ASICs shift spend away from NVIDIA GPUs?
A: ASIC success is rare because accelerated computing is full-stack co-design and models evolve rapidly. NVIDIA’s platform is everywhere (cloud to edge), supports every framework, and accelerates the whole pipeline (data → pretrain → RL → inference). Platform breadth (GPUs, CPUs, memory, SuperNIC, NVLink, Quantum InfiniBand, Spectrum-X Ethernet, Spectrum-X GS) plus best perf/W and perf/$ keeps lifetime utility and margins highest—hence broad customer preference for NVIDIA.

Ben Reitzes (Melius)

Q: Clarify the $3–$4T data-center infrastructure outlook and NVIDIA’s share; are power limits a bottleneck?
A: Hyperscaler capex is ~$600B/year and rising beyond top-4 and into enterprises/other regions. A 1-GW AI factory can cost ~$50–$60B; NVIDIA is an AI-infrastructure company (six chip types for Rubin). Limiters will be power and buildings; perf/W directly drives factory revenue (“tokens per MW”), and NVIDIA focuses on maximizing it. The $3–$4T through decade end is “sensible.”

Joe Moore (Morgan Stanley)

Q: Long-term China prospects and the importance of licensing Blackwell there?
A: China is a ~$50B opportunity this year if NVIDIA can serve it competitively, and could grow ~50% YoY. ~50% of AI researchers are in China; many leading open-source models originate there, fueling enterprise adoption globally. H20 is approved for non-entity-listed firms (with licenses). NVIDIA is advocating for Blackwell access; bringing Blackwell to China is a “real possibility,” subject to U.S. policy.

Aaron Rakers (Wells Fargo)

Q: Scope for Spectrum-X GS and NVIDIA networking?
A: NVIDIA now offers three layers: NVLink (scale-up) for giant virtual GPUs (key to reasoning workloads), InfiniBand & Spectrum-X Ethernet (scale-out), and Spectrum-X GS (scale-across) to interconnect multiple AI factories. Networking choice can lift effective cluster throughput from ~65% to 85–90%, creating $10–$20B of effective benefit in a $50B 1-GW factory—so networking is economically pivotal. Spectrum-X has become a sizable, ~1.5-year-old “home run.”

Stacy Rasgon (Bernstein)

Q: How to apportion the +$7B guide (Q/Q) across Blackwell vs. Hopper vs. networking?
A: Blackwell is the “lion’s share” of data center growth; Hopper (H100/H200 HGX) is still selling; networking rises alongside Blackwell due to NVLink-rich systems. No finer split given.

Jim Schneider (Goldman Sachs)

Q: Rubin transition—incremental capability and size of step vs. Blackwell?
A: NVIDIA is on an annual cadence to keep lifting perf/W and customer revenue. Blackwell delivers ~order-of-magnitude higher perf/W vs. Hopper for reasoning; Rubin brings “a lot of great ideas” to be detailed at GTC. Today, NVIDIA is ramping GB200 and GB300 (Blackwell Ultra); 2024 is record, 2025 expected record. Rubin consists of six new chips and is already in fab; supply chain will be more mature at launch.

Timothy Arcuri (UBS)

Q: With AI market ~50% CAGR, can NVIDIA data-center revenue grow at least in line next year; visibility and puts/takes?
A: NVIDIA has strong forecasts from large customers and rising wins. AI funding is surging Capacity is tight (H100/H200 sold out; CSPs renting from each other). With hyperscaler capex at ~$600B/year, NVIDIA expects multi-year, through-the-decade growth as a significant share of that spend.

Closing notes from Jensen (summary):
Blackwell (NVLink-72 rack-scale) is the platform the market needed as reasoning AI drives huge compute jumps. Blackwell Ultra is ramping fast with extraordinary demand. Rubin (third-gen NVLink rack-scale) is already in fab with six chips and will scale into the $3–$4T AI-factory build-out. Customers are moving from tens of MW (Hopper) to hundreds of MW (Blackwell) and, soon, multi-GW multi-site “AI super-factories” (Rubin). The “AI race is on.”

The conference call just ended, we’ll post our notes shortly.

NVIDIA is currently down about 2.4%, which is about where it traded at the start of Wall Street’s Q&A.

Frankly, we haven’t found anything discussed very interesting so far.

Perhaps the most notable part of the call is Jensen Huang once again directly defending the company against custom chips (from companies like Broadcom and Marvell).

At 24/7 Wall St, we believe there will be room for both custom chips (Google has already proven out the value of its TPU chips developed with Broadcom) and NVIDIA.

Yet, it remains the largest competitive threat to the company.

NVIDIA’s prepared remarks are over and we’re into Wall Street’s questions.

Sovereign AI is the category that could reduce NVIDIA’s reliance on large cloud companies (Microsoft, Google, Amazon).

Here’s what the company had to say about that segment on its call:

“Sovereign AI is on the rise as the nation’s ability to develop its own AI using domestic infrastructure, data and talent presents a significant opportunity for NVIDIA. NVIDIA is at the forefront of landmark initiatives across the U.K. and Europe.

The European Union plans to invest EUR 20 billion to establish 20 AI factories across France, Germany, Italy and Spain, including 5 giga factories to increase its AI compute infrastructure by tenfold. In the U.K., the AI supercomputer powered by NVIDIA was unveiled at the country’s most powerful AI system, delivering of AI performance to accelerate breakthroughs in fields of drug discovery and climate modeling.

We are on track to achieve over $20 billion in Sovereign AI revenue this year, more than double than that last year.”

So, sovereign AI is a $20 billion opportunity and looks to be scaling at growth rates above overall company revenue.

NVIDIA shares have risen slightly during their conference call.

Shares are now down about 2.3%, which is an improvement from the 3% loss headed into the call.

NVIDIA says absent geopolitical issues they could ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 sales this quarter.

Obviously, if that was instituted it could mean next quarter’s sales could rise to $59 billion (at the high end).

Wall Street’s reactions are starting.

Goldman Sachs says they expect the stock to trade down ‘modestly’ following an in-line quarter and guidance across the backdrop of elevated expectations headed into earnings. We had warned about these elevated earnings earlier in the live blog.

As a reminder, if NVIDIA is down 2% tomorrow, that’s against the backdrop the stock is up 51% in the past six months!

The conference call just started.

It’s all boring stuff and legalese at the start.

As soon as it gets interesting, we’ll post updates.

We’re about to hop on NVIDIA’s earnings call.

You can register to join here.

We’ll likely provide a few updates on the segments we believe are most important.

As a reminder, simply leave this page open and new updates will post automatically. If you’d like to come back in the next 60 to 90 minutes, you’ll find all our earnings thoughts will have automatically laoded. 

One common theme of this live blog has been us saying to focus on NVIDIA’s networking business.

That’s not something many investors focus on, but its beginning to ramp as the company begins sales of its powerful GB200 (and GB300) systems.

Networking revenue hit $7.2 billion last quarter, which was up 46% versus the prior quarter.

Here’s what’s astounding: Wall Street estimates for the coming October quarter had been projecting $6.4 billion in networking sales.

Wall Street researcher Jefferies had said they believed NVIDIA could hit $9 billion, which is a figure nearly 50% ahead of Wall Street expectations.

In short, NVIDIA’s networking business is fast becoming a trillion-dollar ‘sub-unit’ as AI rises. 

That’s great news for NVIDIA, but it is also very encouraging for Broadcom which is their main competitor in the networking market.

Broadcom shares are currently down after hours, but that seems like a classic short-sighted reaction by Wall Street. The biggest ‘read through’ from NVIDIA’s earnings is that networking is about to becoming a battleground and its NVIDIA versus Broadcom for leadership.

We will continue updating this live blog during NVIDIA’s conference call.

If you want the big takeaways from the call, it’s pretty simple: Stay on this blog and new updates will post automatically. 

NVIDIA’s conference call begins at 5 p.m. ET.

NVIDIA is currently down about 3%.

We believe these results were very good and do little to impact NVIDIA’s long-term story. Wall Street is likely reacting to guidance that’s slightly below very bullish ‘whisper numbers,’ but the quarter is complicated by NVIDIA excluding sales to China in its guidance.

Looking across the broader AI space, there are some big winners after hours:

• Pure Storage: Up 14%
• Snowflake: Up 12%

It’s not ALL good news. CrowdStrike is down about 7%. But overall, it’s a good after-hours performance for AI stocks.

One note: we’ll be providing in-depth earnings coverage on our next episode of the AI Investor Podcast.

If you’re looking for new AI stock ideas and analysis of the biggest news in the AI space, simply subscribe to the podcast in your favorite Podcast app and you’ll get the newest episodes when they’re announced.

Not to be lost in our analysis of all other areas: NVIDIA approved a $60 billion share buyback.

NVIDIA’s Networking continues to be a bright spot.

In the prior quarter (Q1), networking grew 64% Q/o/Q. In their just released earnings release NVIDIA reported networking grew another 46% Q/o/Q. 

Networking is now at nearly a $30 billion run rate.

As we have been banging the drum on over and over in this blog – the initial move on NVIDIA could reverse as investors dig into the details.

NVIDIA initially moved down 5% on guidance ($54 billion) being below the ‘whisper number’ of $55 billion.

However, as we noted, there is a lot of nuance this quarter. Some analysts incorporated sales to China into their expectations for guidance but NVIDIA has excluded China sales.

We are now seeing a moderation on losses, NVIDIA is down 2%.

Overall, these are very good earnings, and as we noted earlier NVIDIA has been up 3 times, down 3 times, and flat twice the day after earnings in the past 8 quarters.

Across that same time shares are up about 300%.

That is to say, from our analysis, NVIDIA’s results tonight have no ‘red flags’ or should affect your bullishness if you’re a long-term NVIDIA shareholder.

We will continue updating this live blog. The company’s conference call starts at 4:33 p.m.

NVIDIA | Company Name Q2’26 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $1.05 []; [UP] +30% YoY
• Revenue: $46.7B (Est. $46.7B) []; [UP] +56% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 72.7% []; [DOWN] -30 bps YoY
• Net Income: $25.8B []; [UP] +52% YoY

Outlook:

• Revenue: $54.0B ±2% (Est. $54.0B) []
  • We have not assumed any H20 shipments to China in our outlook.
  • Expectations for continued strong demand in AI and data center markets.

Q2 Segment Performance:

• Compute & Networking Revenue: $41.3 (Est. $41.3B) []; [UP] +56% YoY
• Graphics Revenue: $5.4B (Est. $5.4B) []; [UP] +51% YoY

Other Key Q2 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $30.2B (Est. $30.2B) []; [UP] +51% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $3.8B (Est. $3.8B) []; [UP] +36% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $13.5B; [UP] +0% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 15.3% (vs. 15.0% YoY)
• Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Securities: $56.8B; [UP] +63% YoY
• Accounts Receivable: $27.8B; DSO: 54 days
• Inventory: $15.0B; [UP] +32% YoY
• Total Purchase Commitments: $45.8B; [UP] +5% QoQ
• Share Repurchases: $9.7B; [UP] +0% YoY

CEO Commentary:

• Jensen Huang: “In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, we benefited from a $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory related to the sale of approximately $650 million of H20 to an unrestricted customer outside of China. The strong year-on-year and sequential growth was driven by demand for our accelerated computing platform used for large language models, recommendation engines, and generative and agentic AI applications.”

Other Executives:

• Colette Kress, EVP and CFO: “The increases in operating expenses were primarily driven by compute and infrastructure costs and higher compensation and benefits due to compensation increases and employee growth.”

NVIDIA’s guidance is $54 billion BUT IT DOESN’T INCLUDE CHINA SALES. 

As we noted earlier, the ‘whisper number’ was $55 billion, so NVIDIA’s guidance is below that. However, we once again note that different analysts had incorporated China revenue into their figures.

This is a very messy quarter because of China. We’ll see whether the stock reverses as Wall Street digs deeper into the quarter’s earnings.

What’s driving the initial 5% move down? It’s the fact data center revenues missed. 

NVIDIA beat on revenue and EPS last quarter, but its data center revenue missed expectations ($41.1 billion vs. Street expectations of $41.3 billion).

As a note, NVIDIA clarified there were no H20 sales to China…

This is what will make analysis of their quarter so nuanced. Wall Street had added revenue to their guidance on expectations of increasing China sales headed into the quarter.

Here we go 

Revenue: $46.7 billion vs. $46.2 billion expected. 

Shares are initially down 4%. Stay on this blog as we’ll be tearing these earnings apart. 

We are just three minutes from NVIDIA’s earnings.

Once again, we will be providing a live stream of analysis the moment they go live.

Other technology stocks are now reporting, but there’s no need to hit ‘refresh’ on Google over and over again for NVIDIA’s after-hours price movement.

That’s because the company’s earnings are expected to drop at 4:20 p.m. ET, or 7 minutes from now.

The moment earnings are released, we will be providing live analysis of share price movements, and key data points from the company’s earnings. 

Simply stay on this live blog and new updates will post automatically.

It’s a massive beat for Snowflake; shares are now up 12%.

Software stocks had been under pressure heading into late-August earnings, but MongoDB and Snowflake have both trounced earnings now. The AI wave continues to sweep over technology.

The first tech earnings tonight (Snowflake and CrowdStrike) are about to hit.

We’ll post an update with how they look. Both stocks are rising from the AI supercycle.

As a reminder, NVIDIA earnings are expected at 4:20 p.m. and we will post immediate news and analysis the moment their earnings release. Simply stay on this page and new updates will load automatically. 

There’s just minutes left until the market closes. NVIDIA shares are currently down .03%.

The bottom line: the entire market is waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings and the larger reaction will come tomorrow.

We expect NVIDIA’s earnings to release at 4:20 p.m. ET.

The number one factor that will drive NVIDIA’s performance tomorrow is what the company’s guide will look like:

Here’s what Wall Street expects:

• Revenue: $52.76 billion
• Normalized EPS: $1.19
• Gross Margins: 73.51%

Typically, Wall Street’s insitutional buyers have a ‘whisper number’ that’s above Wall Street consensus, so NVIDIA will almost surely need to top $53 billion to see shares rise after hours.

One BIG asterisk is how NVIDIA handles Chinese H20 sales in its guidance. AMD excluded China from its guidance, so its unclear how NVIDIA will handle this situation. Investors will need to not only look at the guidance NVIDIA reports but also look for disclosures on how the company incorporated sales to China in any guidance.

Over the past 4 quarters on average, Nvidia stock dropped 7.31% over the week period following earnings. Will tonight’s numbers buck that trend?