Horn of Africa: Geopolitical Showdown in Somaliland

The geopolitical scene in the Horn of Africa is becoming more intricate by the day, with both international and regional powers competing fiercely for influence through military, economic, and diplomatic strategies. Nestled along the southern shore of the Gulf of Aden, the Republic of Somaliland has been a self-declared state since 1991, following its split from Somalia. It shares borders with Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Somalia, making it a region of strategic significance. However, despite this importance, Somaliland remains unrecognised by any UN member state, largely due to the United States’ “One Somalia” policy. In an intriguing twist, both Israel and the US are looking to deepen their connections with Somaliland’s leadership as a countermeasure to China’s expanding footprint in Djibouti and Yemen’s unconditional support for Palestine, which has created maritime security challenges in the region  Their ambitions include the establishment of military bases in the area, while recent reports suggest that Taiwan, the UK, the US, and the UAE are eyeing the region’s rich resources, such as lithium, iron ore, copper, gypsum, and gold. This evolving situation promises to keep the Horn of Africa at the forefront of geopolitical discourse.

The name “Somaliland” traces back to the era of the British Somaliland colony, which thrived from the 19th century until the upheaval of World War II. It was during this global conflict that British Somaliland joined forces with Italian Somaliland, paving the way for the birth of the independent Republic of Somalia in 1960. However, in 1991, the regime in Mogadishu crumbled, creating the circumstances that allowed Somaliland to boldly break away from Somalia and assert its own identity. Since then, many actors have sought to use Somaliland as a foothold in the Horn of Africa, but nothing notable was ever achieved, until the geopolitical complexity of the 21st Century and the war in West Asia and the Middle East forced countries like the US and Israel to refocus on this much-coveted 460-mile coastline near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Somaliland geopolitical chessboard

The U.S. is focused on establishing a robust military foothold in the region, aiming to protect its geopolitical interests and maintain control over the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The move also comes as a response to the tenacity of Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen, who remain fervent advocates for the Palestinian cause and have shown tremendous resilience and great military acumen. Moreover, the U.S. efforts at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti face challenges from China’s first overseas naval base nearby, a stronghold bolstered by significant investments in port infrastructure. Opening a large military base in Somaliland seems to be the US’s favoured option, although nothing concrete has been announced.

On another front, the United Arab Emirates has poured half a billion dollars into Somaliland, enhancing the Berbera port and a neighboring military airstrip, while also reportedly providing training to local security forces. Alternatively, Turkey has built its influence in Somalia through military training and a base in Mogadishu, but has also kept diplomatic ties in Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital, which some locals view as a veiled attempt at espionage and meddling in local politics.

In this intricate web of alliances, a potential Israeli partnership with Somaliland could align with U.S. and Emirati ambitions.   However, it is crucial to recognise that such a move risks inflaming tensions with Turkey and Iran, as both nations perceive Israel’s growing presence in the Horn of Africa as a significant threat, setting the stage for a complex geopolitical showdown. In 2010, Israel was one of the few countries to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland, and open-source information confirms that Israel is still very much looking at increasing its footprint in what the Ancient Egyptians referred to as The Land of Punt.

As for Ethiopia, its pursuit of a coastline is more than just an issue of geography; it’s a crucial factor reshaping the geopolitical landscape in the region. Last year, things heated up when Ethiopia made headlines by signing a controversial deal with Somaliland to build a port, in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s independence. The agreement didn’t sit well with Somalia, raising concerns about possible regional unrest. To complicate matters further, Egypt has thrown its support behind Somalia, influenced by its own concerns over Ethiopia’s ambitious Nile mega dam project—Africa’s largest hydroelectric facility—which Egypt fears could significantly diminish its access to vital Nile waters.

The cost of recognition

For over twenty years, Somaliland has been on a quest for international recognition, seeing strategic partnerships as a crucial step toward gaining sovereign legitimacy. Although there isn’t yet a formal agreement between Israel and Somaliland, military activity is hard to overlook, especially on Abd al-Kuri Island, which is part of the Socotra island chain, where the construction of a port, airstrip, and helipad raises eyebrows, hinting at plans for a comprehensive military base. On July 29, 2024, Maariv reported that Israel and the UAE were fast-tracking the establishment of an intelligence military base on the island, strategically located near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Additionally, the United Emirates also maintains close security ties with Puntland, an autonomous region located in northeastern Somalia, bordered by both the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, which is officially under Mogadishu’s rule but de facto largely autonomous, and makes military use of the port and airport in the city of Bosaso.

Additionally, Somaliland has granted permissions for a base in Berbera intended for potential Israeli forces, with local partners already making adjustments to meet Israeli standards. There are even words that an Israeli radar system is now operational in northern Somalia (likely Somaliland) to keep an eye on Houthi missile launches emanating from Yemen. This development hasn’t gone unnoticed—Egypt is wary of the strategic consequences an Israeli base in Somaliland could have on Red Sea security. Meanwhile, African nations are apprehensive that U.S. and Israeli recognition of Somaliland could spur separatist movements, complicating Israel’s ties across the continent.  So far, both the African Union and the U.S. have prioritised the territorial integrity of Somalia, but the pressing question remains: for how long?

In a revealing July interview with Bloomberg, Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro shared an intriguing proposal: a military base for the United States positioned strategically near the entrance of the Red Sea. In exchange, he offered access to the region’s strategic minerals, all in pursuit of official diplomatic recognition. Adding to the drama, just a month later, US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)—a prominent supporter of Israel and chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa—joined the conversation. He urged the Trump administration in a public letter to recognise Somaliland’s statehood as a sovereign entity. This discussion gains even more momentum as reports, including one from The Guardian, suggest that certain members of the Trump team are contemplating a shift away from the long-standing “One Somalia” policy. The outlet cites the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 report on the presidential transition, which characterises China as a hostile actor in Africa and recommends “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.deteriorating position in Djibouti; and a focus on supporting American companies involved in industries important to U.S. national interests or that have a competitive advantage in Africa.”

Former UK Defence Secretary, Sir Gavin Williamson, a staunch supporter of official recognition of the ex-British protectorate, believes it’s just a matter of time before Trump comes around to recognising Somaliland’s statehood. A 2024 report from “The Independent,” notes that one of Trump’s final acts during his first term was to order the withdrawal of troops from Somalia, a move that President Biden later reversed. Previous efforts to gain recognition for Somaliland faced significant challenges, largely due to the backing of former US President Barack Obama for Somalia’s claims.

The Somaliland Lithium and Rare Minerals Rush

Africa, sitting on roughly 5% of the world’s lithium reserves, is witnessing several nations capitalising on this thrilling opportunity, and Somaliland is stepping into the limelight as a promising player in the global lithium game. While it’s still early days in the exploration phase, Somaliland has already identified lithium resources that could transform its economic landscape. Following in the footsteps of countries like Zimbabwe and Namibia, Somaliland not only stands eager to fuel global industry but also to ignite its own progress, all while aiming for the long-desired international recognition.

In June 2024, Somaliland made headlines by signing a pivotal agreement with Saudi mining giant Kilomass to explore its lithium potential—a noteworthy milestone for foreign investment in the region’s mining sector. Attention from U.S. companies and allied nations is also sharpening, as Congressman Chris Smith drew attention to Somaliland’s burgeoning mineral wealth during a recent congressional hearing. He noted the significant lithium deposits uncovered in Somaliland and the interest of a Taiwanese firm looking to invest. 

This is a critical moment: Taiwan, a partner of the U.S., established a mining cooperation agreement with Somaliland in 2022, leading Taiwanese firms to actively pursue opportunities in the mineral-rich territory. Notably, Taiwan’s state-owned CPC Corp. has already secured a 49% stake in an oil exploration block in Somaliland and is setting its sights on the mining sector next. Taipei’s involvement not only demonstrates a vote of confidence in Somaliland but also underscores a shared strategy to challenge China’s dominance in resource extraction. It seems like the future looks bright for Somaliland as it embarks on this perilous journey. However, it would be wise for them to remember that being friendly to the US, Israel, and Taiwan bears its own risks, which they will need to mitigate judiciously.

On July 19, 2025, Somaliland’s Minister of Energy and Minerals, Eng. Ahmed Jama Barre celebrated a significant milestone by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a consortium of three international partners. This partnership includes US Indiana-based evangelist humanitarian organisation Feed the Hungry headed by Stefan Radelich,  mineral resource specialist Phoenix Resources, and the UK-based advisory group Gaskins Advisory Limited. Phoenix Resources and Gaskins Advisory Limited will lend their expertise and financial resources to propel mineral exploration and development, while “Feed the Hungry” is set to champion community development initiatives. 

The Ministry of Energy and Minerals signed an MoU with Phoenix Resources, Feed the Hungry, and Gaskins Advisory Ltd. to boost mining investment, skills development, and sustainable livelihoods for local miners.#Mining #Development #Partnership #Somaliland pic.twitter.com/iIeRXc2Itm

— Ministry of Energy and Minerals | Somaliland (@SLMoEM) July 22, 2025

China’s recent diplomatic maneuvers in Somaliland’s eastern Khaatumo region are stirring intrigue. This area, encompassing parts of Sool, Sanaag, and Togdheer, has long had a fraught relationship with Hargeisa’s central government. Known for its vast wealth in gold and strategic minerals, including lithium, this region has become a focal point of interest for its mining opportunities (See survey). Many analysts suggest that these meetings with local clan leaders could be a strategic move by China, particularly in light of Somaliland’s warming ties with Taiwan, which Beijing vehemently opposes.  On the other hand, the United States finds itself at a crossroads. With an urgent need to lessen dependence on rare minerals, it has hoped to secure in areas affected by the Ukraine conflict, it must now carefully navigate China’s assertive presence in Djibouti and its interest in Somaliland and the greater Khaatumo region. If the U.S. hopes to tap into the rich deposits of rare earth elements and lithium in Somaliland, it will need a deft diplomatic approach to counterbalance China’s influence in the region. The stakes are high, and the unfolding dynamics are certainly worth watching.

Taiwan Somaliland Pact

On July 30, 2025, the outlet Horn Diplomat brought to light an intriguing development, which they have titled the Taiwan-Somaliland pact, a Coast Guard Cooperation Agreement, which the media describes as “a new geopolitical flashpoint in the Horn of Africa.” The pact seeks to elevate the Taiwan-Somaliland relationship beyond mere development aid, forging it into a robust strategic partnership to empower Somaliland with sovereign capabilities. However, China’s response will likely see this as yet another provocation by Taiwan in violation of the “One China” principle, ultimately heightening the stakes in an already complex relationship. On Aug. 17, 2020, Taiwan opened a representative office in Hargeisa that exacerbated tensions, which China believes are purposely fueled by the US. 

Displacing Palestinians to Eastern Africa

Recent rumours and strong denials have emerged around discussions between the US, Israel, and certain Eastern and North African nations regarding the resettlement of civilians from the Gaza Strip. This notion of displacing the Palestinian population has sparked widespread opposition, even from the nations being approached. A Financial Times report from March 14, 2025, reveals that Israeli officials, including strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer, have reached out to Somalia and Sudan—countries currently grappling with civil conflict. Meanwhile, US diplomats have been in touch with the breakaway province of Somaliland.

The report mentions a US official who shared insights into Washington’s preliminary talks with Somaliland’s presidency, which hinted at a potential deal to recognise the de facto state in exchange for allowing the establishment of a military base in proximity to the port of Berbera on the Red Sea coast. According to this unnamed source, initial conversations included the prospect of relocating refugees from both the US and Gaza. It was The Associated Press that first brought these discussions to light regarding the three East African regions.

The idea, which is clearly devoid of compassion and respect for international law, first emerged earlier this year when Trump suggested transferring a significant portion of Gaza’s 2 million residents following the onslaught in Gaza, which has now turned into a catastrophic famine, confirming Israeli ethnic cleansing, war crimes and genocide against the Palestinians. Somalia has made its stance clear, consistently stating that “Gaza belongs to the Palestinians.” As for the government of Somaliland, which understandably could have been tempted by the potential for US recognition, it believes that displacing Gaza refugees in the de facto state would destabilise the region and inadvertently strengthen the influence of Islamist hardliners in East Africa. Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro has firmly denied any negotiations with the US concerning the resettlement of Palestinians, urging instead for a solution that enjoys the consensus of Arab nations.

It appears that both Israel and the US are encountering significant pushback regarding their troubling and unlawful actions aimed at displacing Palestinians to Eastern African countries. Many nations, like much of the global community, are reluctant to associate themselves with Israel’s serious violations of human rights that have unfolded in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, the people of Somaliland, who rightfully aspire to peace and prosperity, must remain alert to the dominance of US and Israeli interests. These powers may see Somaliland’s economic vulnerabilities as an opportunity, but they should be prepared to stand firm against any form of exploitation, as both hegemonic nations pursue their empirealist quest for rare earth minerals and Lithium, whilst attempting to fulfil their geopolitical ambitions in the region.

Freddie Ponton
21st Century Wire

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