Back-to-School or Back-to-BROKE?

Families are entering the new school year facing higher shopping costs as tariffs push prices upward and shift buying behavior.

At a Glance

• The National Retail Federation estimates families are budgeting nearly $875 for back-to-school spending in 2025.
• A majority of parents expect higher prices this year due to tariffs.
• About 12% more families began shopping earlier than in 2024.
• Most of Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports went into effect in August.
• U.S. trade negotiations with China remain unresolved.

Tariffs Reshape the Shopping Season

As summer winds down, American families are confronting a more expensive back-to-school season. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), households are planning to spend an average of nearly $875 this year on school-related expenses, including supplies, clothes, and electronics. This marks one of the highest average budgets on record, reflecting both rising prices and consumer adjustments to trade policy changes.

The timing of the increase coincides with the rollout of tariffs implemented by former president Donald Trump. Many of these duties, which target imported consumer goods, took effect at the beginning of August. Since a significant share of school supplies and related items are manufactured abroad, parents are preparing for added costs as retailers pass along higher import expenses.

Watch now: Families expected to spend nearly $875 on back-to-school … · YouTube

Consumer Reactions to Higher Costs

The NRF survey highlights that shoppers are changing their habits in response to the tariff landscape. Roughly 12% more families reported beginning their back-to-school shopping earlier than in 2024, an effort to avoid potential price spikes. The survey also found that 72% of parents expect higher costs compared with last year.

Retailers, too, have been signaling price adjustments, particularly for goods heavily reliant on imports. Items such as backpacks, stationery, and clothing are among those most exposed to tariff-related increases. While some families may delay or reduce discretionary purchases, the overall trend shows parents budgeting more for essentials, ensuring that children have what they need for the academic year.

Broader Trade Context

The price pressures are unfolding against the backdrop of ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Despite discussions, a comprehensive agreement has not yet been reached. This uncertainty has kept both consumers and businesses wary of additional rounds of tariffs or policy shifts.

For families, the lack of resolution means that elevated costs could persist throughout the year. Economists note that while some retailers may absorb portions of the tariffs in the short term, the longer-term pattern points toward continued price inflation for everyday goods.

At the macro level, the increased burden on household budgets could translate into shifts in consumer spending elsewhere. With nearly $875 allocated per family just for back-to-school season, spending in other retail categories may soften, affecting broader economic trends as fall approaches.

Retailers Brace for Extended Impacts

Industry groups have been cautious in their outlooks, acknowledging that consumer resilience remains strong but noting risks of tapering demand. Back-to-school shopping is typically one of the most significant retail events of the year, second only to the holiday season. If tariffs continue to inflate costs, businesses may face challenges balancing margins with competitive pricing strategies.

The NRF has emphasized that back-to-school spending serves as a bellwether for household confidence. The elevated budgets this year suggest that families are prioritizing education-related purchases despite financial strain. Whether this willingness to spend will carry over into other retail periods may depend heavily on the trajectory of U.S.-China trade policy in the months ahead.

Sources

The Guardian

National Retail Federation

Reuters