Lord Ashcroft: My latest polling -‘Sin taxes’, the appeal of Reform, and who will lead the parties in a year?

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

In my latest poll we look in detail at the appeal of Reform UK, and why a crucial chunk of voters say they are glad the party is around but (so far) won’t vote for it. We also ask who would do the best job on the issues facing the country, whether this government is better or worse than the last one, what details the police should release about suspects, whether Ukraine should accept a land-for-peace deal, who will lead the parties in a year, and what people think of “sin taxes”.

What have people noticed? And who has noticed what?

Two stories dominated people’s recollections of recent political news – the Trump-Putin Alaska summit and the surrounding diplomacy over the Ukraine war. Stories about asylum and small boat crossings featured most heavily on the domestic scene.

Our political map shows what kind of voters were most likely to recall which news. Stories about asylum seekers, tax rises, the economy and the acquittal of Labour councillor Ricky Jones on charges of violent disorder were most likely to have been noticed in the Conservative/Reform leaning right-hand side of the map, while the Ukraine meetings, Gaza, the JD Vance visit to the UK and Jeremy Corbyn’s new party were most likely to be mentioned in left-leaning territory.

What have Labour done so far?

Means testing the winter fuel allowance continues to top the list when we ask what the Labour government has done since the election. Presiding over record small-boat crossings, raising employers’ National Insurance and proposing disability benefit cuts were next.

Winter fuel appears at the centre of the map, showing it is mentioned by voters from all parts of the electorate. Small boats, inheritance tax and the Chagos Islands deal were most likely to be mentioned in Conservative and Reform territory. Workers’ rights, disability benefit cuts, the NHS and free school meals were more likely to be mentioned in Labour and Lib Dems parts of the map, while supplying weapons to Israel and proscribing Palestine Action were most likely to be recalled in the more diverse, less prosperous bottom-left quadrant.

Optimism and pessimism

Nearly three quarters of voters said they were pessimistic about the future of the country. Majorities in all 2024 voter groups were pessimistic, ranging from two thirds of Labour voters to 94 per cent of Reform UK voters. Voters as a whole were also more likely to be pessimistic than optimistic about the future for themselves and their families, but by much smaller margins. Labour and Lib Dem voters were slightly more likely to be personally optimistic than pessimistic. Large majorities in all age groups were pessimistic for the country, but those aged 18-24 were more likely to be optimistic than pessimistic for their own future.

 Better or worse than the Tories?

Only just under a quarter of all voters – including only 51% of 2024 Labour voters – said they thought the current Labour government was better than the last Conservative government. Just under 4 in 10, including 12 per cent of those who voted Labour, said the current government was worse than the previous one. Those who switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024 were quite evenly divided between thinking the new government was better (31 per cent), worse (34 per cent) or about the same (31 per cent) as the last Conservative government.

Most effective opposition?

Asked who was providing the most effective opposition to the Labour government, people were five times as likely to name Reform UK as the Conservatives. Nearly half of 2024 Tories named Reform, compared to 18 per cent who thought the Conservatives were being the most effective. Overall, three in ten said there was no effective opposition.

Who will be the leaders in a year?

Asked who they thought would be leading the Labour party a year from now, voters were divided between thinking it would be Keir Starmer and someone else, with only just over half of 2024 Labour voters naming Starmer. Majorities from all parties thought Farage would still be leading Reform UK in a year’s time and people were much more likely than not to think Ed Davey would still be leading the Lib Dems. Overall, respondents were more likely than not to think someone else would be leading the Conservatives rather than Kemi Badenoch.

Most important issues – and who would do the best job

Asylum and immigration was the most important issue for voters as a whole, chosen in the top  by nearly half of all respondents. The cost of living and the NHS and social care were close behind. Asylum and immigration was also the top issue among 2024 Conservatives and Reform UK voters. The NHS and the cost of living were top among Labour and Lib Dem voters.

 When we asked which party would do the best job on various issues, Reform UK had a clear lead on small boats and asylum, dealing with crime and disorder, getting the balance right between free speech and public order, and making sure the justice system is fair and effective. Labour led on getting NHS waiting lists down. There were close results on the cost of living; balancing tax, spending and borrowing; growing the economy; making the most of Britain’s influence in the world; and balancing control of the welfare budget with making sure people who need help get it. In each case, between 40 and 50 per cent said they didn’t know which party would do the best job – more than named any of the parties.

Asked who would do the better job running the economy, voters chose Starmer and Rachel Reeves over Badenoch and Mel Stride by a 1-point margin (27 per cent to 26 per cent) with nearly half (saying “don’t know”. Only just over half of 2024 Labour voters named the Labour team; two thirds of 2024 Conservatives chose the Tory team.

 

“Sin taxes”

 

By a 9-point margin, voters were more likely to say that “sin taxes” were a good way to raise revenue and discourage damaging behaviour than that they were a way for governments to squeeze more money out of hard-working people and boss them around. Majorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters took the first view; Conservatives were evenly divided; and Reform UK voters took the second view by a 45-point margin.

Robert Jenrick and “xenophobia”

Overall, a majority of voters felt that Robert Jenrick was expressing legitimate concerns about illegal migration that many people share, with just under one in three thinking he was fuelling xenophobia and unjustified fear of foreigners. Conservative and Reform voters overwhelmingly said he was expressing legitimate concerns, as did around four in ten Labour and Lib Dem voters.

What details should the police give about suspects?

Large majorities in all groups were in favour of releasing the age and sex of anyone arrested for a serious crime. Just under two thirds, including 91 per cent of 2024 Reform voters, 8 in 10 Conservatives and 55 per cent of Labour and Lib Dem voters, supported releasing a suspect’s nationality. Majorities also favoured releasing a suspect’s ethnicity, though Labour and Lib Dem voters were more closely divided and Greens were more likely to oppose than support the idea, as were those aged 18 to 24.

Russia and Ukraine

Thinking about the recent meetings involving Trump, Putin, Zelenskyy and European leaders, a small majority said Ukraine should reject any plan that involves Russia permanently occupying Ukrainian territory, even if this means continuing the war. Majorities in all voter groups thought this apart from Reform UK voters, 41% of whom agreed with the statement; 26% of them thought Ukraine should accept Russia permanently occupying some of the territory it invaded in order to end the war.

Reform UK

Overall, 4 in 10 voters said they thought Reform UK were a negative influence on British politics and they wished the party didn’t exist. Slightly more said either that they were glad the party were around as they said things that needed saying (20 per cent) or that they could see themselves voting for it next time (26 per cent).

Among 2024 Conservative voters, more than three quarters said either that they were glad Reform were around or that they could see themselves voting Reform. Among 2024 Labour voters, more than a quarter said either that they were glad the party was around or could see themselves voting Reform next time.

Those who said they were glad the party were around but probably wouldn’t vote for it tended to think the Conservatives would do the best job on inflation, tax and spending, economic growth, international affairs, crime and justice and welfare, but that Reform would deal best with asylum and crime.

Among those who voted Reform or are leaning towards doing so at the next election, the single thing they like about the party best is that “they put Britain first”, followed by “they stand up for common sense and free speech” and “they say things that need saying that other parties won’t”. Saying things that other parties won’t is also the most attractive feature for those who say they’re glad Reform are around but probably wouldn’t vote for them.

Among voters as a whole, and for those who wish the party didn’t exist, the biggest reservations about voting Reform UK are that there might be racist elements in the party, they embolden people with unacceptable views, and they might be too extreme.

For those who say they are glad the party is around but probably wouldn’t vote for it, the most common reservation is “I don’t think they’re ready to run the country” (chosen by 48% of this group). Worries about racist elements are second, followed by doubts as to whether their policies add up.

By analysing the answers to a series of further questions we can learn more about what distinguishes those who are likely to vote for Reform from those who say they won’t vote for them but are glad they’re around. For example, agreement that current levels of immigration are bad for Britain does not necessarily indicate a strong likelihood of voting Reform, since the “glad they’re around” group are almost as likely to agree. More telling is the preference for Farage as prime minister over not just Starmer, but also Badenoch and Boris Johnson. They prefer a strong, single-party government to a coalition and think the established parties have failed, and hold the current Labour government largely responsible for Britain’s economic problems.

The “glad they’re around” cohort are more equivocal about their preference for Farage over Starmer, tend to prefer Badenoch to Farage as PM, are less likely to blame Labour for the economic situation and on balance prefer to be closer to Europe than the US.

The political map

As above, our political map shows how different issues, attributes, personalities and opinions interact with one another. Each point shows where we are most likely to find people with that characteristic or opinion; the closer the plot points are to each other the more closely related they are. Here we see how issue priorities are distributed among the electorate, with national security, tax, debt, crime and immigration towards the right-hand side of the map in Conservative and Reform-supporting territory.

The Reform-leaning bottom right is also where we find those most likely to be pessimistic about the future of Britain, and those who see “sin taxes” as a way of squeezing more money from people and bossing them around. The more prosperous, more diverse, Labour and Lib-Dem supporting top-left quadrant is where we find those most likely to be optimistic for the country, with the less well-off, more diverse quadrant home to those most likely to prioritise the cost of living, housing and the NHS.

Best prime minister

Given a choice between Starmer and Badenoch, voters overall say Starmer would make the better PM by a 10-point margin, though with nearly half saying “don’t know”. Sixty-three per cent of 2024 Labour voters say Starmer would make the better PM, while 55 per cent of 2024 Conservatives named Badenoch. Those who voted Reform UK in 2024 said they preferred Badenoch to Starmer by 47 per cent to 4 per cent, with just under half saying “don’t know”.

Given a choice between Starmer and Farage, voters as a whole chose Starmer by 40 per cent to 30 per cent, with a further 30 per cent saying “don’t know”. 2024 Conservatives chose Farage over Starmer by 51 per cent to 14 per cent, while 2024 Labour voters chose Starmer by a 61-point margin.

Offered a choice between Starmer, Badenoch and Farage, voters chose Starmer over Farage by a 6-point margin, with Badenoch in third place on 10 per cent.

The next general election

Those who voted Labour in 2024 put their chances of doing so again at the next election at an average of 49/100, compared to 58/100 in March. Those who voted Conservative were more likely to repeat their 2024 vote (61/100, down from 68/100 in March). Those who voted Reform UK put their chances of doing so again at 75/100, up from 64/100 in March.

Those who switched to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting for the party again next time at 38/100. Those who switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting Labour again next time at an average of 30/100 (and their chances of going back to the Tories at 24/100 and of going to Reform UK at 28/100). Those who switched away from the Conservatives in 2024 currently put their likelihood of returning to the Tories next time at 22/100.

Those leaning towards Reform were the most intense supporters – they gave themselves a higher mean likelihood of doing so (91/100) than those leaning Conservative (86), Labour (81) or Lib Dem (83).

Looking at those more likely than not to vote for a particular party (those whose highest likelihood of voting for one party was at least 50/100), this implies current vote shares of

Reform UK 27%, Labour 23%, Conservative 20%, Green 11%, Lib Dems 11%, Others 8%.

This chart shows the flow of voters in our poll from the 2019 general election to the 2024 general election, and then to their current voting intention – defined as those who put their chances of voting for one party at more than 50/100. It indicates how many 2019 Conservatives went straight to Labour in 2024 or stayed at home compared to voting Liberal Democrat. It also shows the relative size of the segment that went from the Tories to Reform, and the proportion currently considering making the same journey at the next election.

We can also see the potential threat to Labour from the combination of Reform on the one hand, and the combination of the Lib Dems, Greens and Others (such as Jeremy Corbyn’s new party) on the other.

Full data tables at LordAshcroftPolls.com

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