The U.S.-India partnership, once celebrated as a cornerstone of post–Cold War strategy, is unraveling under trade disputes and shifting geopolitical alignments.
At a Glance
- U.S.-India relations face their sharpest downturn in 25 years
- Trump-era tariffs triggered economic and diplomatic friction
- India’s top officials have held recent talks in Moscow and Beijing
- Prime Minister Modi preparing rare visit to China
- Putin expected to host Modi in Moscow before year’s end
From Allies to Adversarial Undercurrents
For more than two decades, Washington and New Delhi cultivated a strategic partnership that reshaped Asian geopolitics. Trade liberalization, shared democratic values, and security cooperation against terrorism provided the bedrock. Today, that foundation is eroding.
The trigger came when President Trump imposed broad tariffs on Indian imports, hitting sectors like steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals. India retaliated with its own levies on U.S. agricultural goods, fueling a cycle of trade tensions. But beyond economics, the damage has spread to political trust. According to Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the underlying assumptions that sustained the relationship for a generation have “completely unraveled.”
Watch now: Even if India and U.S. eventually reach a tariff deal, the trust is most likely gone: Expert · YouTube
As confidence wanes, New Delhi is sending deliberate signals that it has alternatives. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval traveled to Moscow in recent weeks, while Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar engaged in high-level talks in Beijing. Both moves highlight India’s readiness to diversify partnerships amid strained ties with Washington.
Beijing and Moscow Step In
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to Delhi marked a new chapter in India-China dialogue. Despite a tense border standoff in Ladakh and years of mistrust, the two governments appear willing to compartmentalize disputes in pursuit of overlapping economic and regional interests. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now preparing for his first official visit to China in over seven years, a symbolic gesture underscoring a recalibration of India’s foreign priorities.
In parallel, Russia is reinforcing its traditional ties with India. President Vladimir Putin is expected to host Modi in Moscow before year’s end, reviving a relationship that once anchored India’s defense and energy strategy. Moscow has long been a reliable supplier of military hardware to India, and closer dialogue could expand cooperation in nuclear energy and regional security.
India’s pivot eastward also reflects unease over Washington’s unpredictable trade and defense policies. Analysts suggest that Delhi’s engagements with both Moscow and Beijing are designed not as outright alignment but as leverage — a reminder to Washington that India’s partnerships remain flexible, not fixed.
Strategic Calculations Ahead
The downturn poses challenges for U.S. policymakers who, for years, framed India as a linchpin in balancing China’s rise. Military cooperation under the “Quad” framework — linking the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia — may lose momentum if New Delhi shifts focus toward bilateral arrangements with Beijing or Moscow.
The U.S.-India defense partnership, once a bright spot, faces uncertainty. Major defense deals, including aircraft sales and technology-sharing agreements, now risk delay as Delhi reassesses reliance on Washington. Meanwhile, India’s domestic political climate adds further complexity: Modi’s government prizes strategic autonomy and has consistently resisted being drawn into exclusive alignments.
For Washington, the unraveling of trust represents more than a trade spat. It is a warning that global partnerships built over decades can fray quickly when economic disputes collide with shifting power dynamics. Whether the United States recalibrates its approach or doubles down on tariffs will determine if this is a temporary rift or a lasting realignment in Asia’s geopolitical order.
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