NYT Releases Report That Is Being Hotly Debated

The numbers don’t lie — and right now, they spell disaster for the Democrat Party.

A deep-dive analysis from the New York Times, drawing on voter registration data from L2, shows Democrats bleeding support across the country, with no obvious path to recovery. For the first time since 2018, more new voters registered as Republicans than Democrats nationwide — a seismic shift that underscores just how much Donald Trump has remade the political map.

The scale of the collapse is jaw-dropping. Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, Democrats lost 2.1 million registered voters across the 30 states (plus D.C.) that track party registration. Republicans, meanwhile, gained 2.4 million. That’s a net swing of 4.5 million voters — a crater-sized hole Democrats now have to climb out of. Their eleven-point registration advantage in 2020 has been cut nearly in half, down to just six points in 2024.

NEW at NYT: The Democratic Party is facing a voter registration crisis in red, blue and battleground states alike — losing ground to the GOP everywhere.

My deep dive into the numbers and what it reveals about the party’s brand.

Thread —>https://t.co/X9sU7aJYpE pic.twitter.com/GghDmBCRn2

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) August 20, 2025

And it’s not confined to battlegrounds. The decline spans every single state that registers by party — red, blue, and purple alike. California, the Democrats’ electoral fortress, isn’t immune. Neither are swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, where registration data confirms the same story: the GOP is gaining ground while Democrats hemorrhage support.

This collapse is being fueled by Trump’s reshaped coalition — particularly his inroads with men, younger voters, Latinos, and working-class nonwhite voters. For decades, Democrats relied on a sprawling nonprofit infrastructure to mass-register minorities and the young, assuming they would reliably vote blue. Trump upended that equation. The very demographics Democrats once took for granted are now defecting, often in large numbers.

And here’s the kicker: Democrats have no easy way to buy their way out of this. Their nonprofit network can blanket-register people cheaply and grab donor tax breaks in the process. But the surgical work of actually finding and mobilizing likely Democrat voters through partisan groups is brutally expensive, costing hundreds of dollars per vote. That’s not a sustainable strategy in the long run — especially with donor fatigue already setting in.

Michael Pruser of Decision Desk HQ didn’t mince words when talking to the Times: “There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”

Democrats today face a triple crisis: a collapsing registration edge, a donor model that doesn’t scale to the challenge, and a leadership vacuum. Without a message that resonates beyond the activist class — and without a standard-bearer strong enough to rally the base — they’re watching the ground shift beneath their feet while Trump and the MAGA movement build an even broader coalition.

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