Live Updates
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Final Reaction
| Metric | Prior FY26 Consensus | Post-Guide FY26 | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.99B | $21.0–$21.2B | Higher |
| EPS | $22.9 | $22.98–$23.18 | Higher |
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Bullish: Clean beat, raised FY26, Credit Karma momentum intact, AI monetization visible.
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Balanced: Guidance sets a high bar into FY26 — execution on mid-market and AI agents is now priced in.
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Bearish: Consumer unit still saw flat TurboTax unit growth (-2% total units), meaning reliance on upsell and ARPR remains high
My take on earnings
The stock is still down 5.5% after-hours and here are my three takeaways from the report:
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Strong beat & raise across the board, but TurboTax unit decline and peak comps overshadowed AI upside.
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Credit Karma’s rebound was solid, yet investors see FY25 as a high-water mark.
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With shares at ~30x forward EPS, expectations were too high, leading to “sell the news.”
Management Commentary
“Our virtual team of AI agents and AI-enabled human experts are powering success for consumers and businesses. We could not be more excited about the opportunity ahead.” – CEO Sasan Goodarzi
Analyst Note: The CEO leaned heavily on AI as the differentiator, suggesting that Intuit sees its agents not just as features, but as revenue drivers that will compound across TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma.
Share drop 5%
Why the Stock is Down
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Tax season comps peaking: TurboTax Live was the hero (+47%), but units actually fell 2% YoY. Investors may see FY25 as a peak growth year with tougher comps ahead.
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High expectations baked in: Management already raised FY25 guidance last quarter — today’s “beat and raise” wasn’t enough to reset the bullish narrative.
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Segment reshuffle: Combining Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProTax into one unit adds optics risk that growth pockets get harder to isolate.
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Valuation pressure: At ~30x forward EPS, the bar is very high. Even with raised FY26, some may see margin leverage already priced in.
More on the numbers
Intuit posted a clean top- and bottom-line beat, powered by 47% TurboTax Live growth and 34% Credit Karma strength. Management not only raised FY25 to the finish line but also set FY26 guidance at 12–13% revenue growth and 14–15% EPS growth, reinforcing confidence in AI-driven momentum.
Numbers are in
Intuit numbers are in and so far not much of a reaction to the stock price. But a beat across the board.
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Revenue | $3.83B | $3.75B | Beat |
| Q4 EPS (Non-GAAP) | $2.75 | $2.66 | Beat |
| FY25 Revenue | $18.83B | $18.75B | Beat |
| FY25 EPS (Non-GAAP) | $20.15 | $20.10 | Beat |
Earnings Up Next
Intuit will close the day slightly down with earnings dropping in about 20 minutes. Stay tuned here as we give you updates on the stock.
Earnings History
Four straight EPS beats, with the last two quarters producing double-digit positive post-print moves; earlier reactions were negative—underscoring the market’s focus on sustained growth and FY26 margin credibility.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2025 (May 22, 2025) | +6.78% | +8.12% | +14.80% | +15.03% |
| Q2 FY2025 (Feb 25, 2025) | +28.68% | +12.58% | +9.13% | +8.37% |
| Q1 FY2025 (Nov 21, 2024) | +5.93% | –5.68% | –6.29% | –0.95% |
| Q4 FY2024 (Aug 22, 2024) | +7.57% | –6.83% | –6.08% | –2.84% |
Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) reports after the close. We’re late in a year where Consumer (TurboTax Live) outperformed and the Business platform kept 20%-type online ecosystem growth while Credit Karma re-accelerated. This print matters because management raised FY25 guidance last quarter and previewed AI “agents” plus a refreshed lineup—investors need confirmation that these are translating to durable growth and margins into FY26.
Estimates Snapshot
- Revenue (Q4 FY2025): $3.75B
- EPS (Q4 FY2025, Normalized): $2.66
- FY2025 Revenue: $18.75B
- FY2025 EPS: $20.10
Key Areas to Watch
-
TurboTax Live durability & margin flow-through
Management highlighted TT Live revenue up ~47% in FY25 with assisted tax adoption inflecting. Investors will watch if upsell/pricing holds into FY26 without outsized marketing. -
AI “agents” commercialization and pricing
CEO detailed upcoming customer, payments, project-management, and accounting agents that “do the work” and may enable value-based and module pricing. Execution and attach rates will be key. -
Mid-market IES (Intuit Enterprise Suite) traction
Company cited growing wins and a boomerang customer example; analysts will gauge pipeline build, ARPC lift, and channel leverage with large accounting firms. -
Credit Karma momentum
Guidance lifted on renewed strength in cards/personal loans and insurance; investors will check sustainability into FY26 and macro sensitivity. -
Operating leverage from AI & automation
Management targets operating income growth > revenue and cited broad productivity gains; watch FY26 margin setup.
The post Live: Will Intuit Beat Q4 Earnings Tonight? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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Author: Joel South
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