Republicans Increase Their Voter Registration Edge over Democrats in Arizona

Republicans outpaced Democrats by a margin of 7 percent for the second quarter of 2025, Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes – a Democrat – revealed in a new report of voter registration numbers. The move to the Right was seen statewide and in Maricopa County, the largest and most influential of the state’s 15 counties.

Despite the perception of Arizona becoming more Democratic due to Democrats winning major offices since 2020, Republicans have been steadily expanding their voter registration advantage over Democrats.

The new figures reveal that Republicans are at 35.74 percent of the electorate statewide compared to 28.41 percent for Democrats. Independents maintained their lead over Democrats as well, at 34.13 percent. The figures for Maricopa County almost exactly mirror the state figures, with Republicans at 35.29 percent and Democrats at 28.01 percent. Independents are at 34.87 percent.

In 2020, at the time of the general election, Republicans made up only 35.24 percent of statewide registered voters, just 3 percent more than Democrats at 32.20 percent. In Maricopa County, Republicans constituted 35.26 percent, while Democrats constituted 31.37 percent, a difference of less than 4 points.

Some of the heavily Republican counties reported even higher gains. Mohave County reported 56.11 percent Republicans to 12.27 percent Democrats, over 43 percent more. In 2020, that lead was only 36 percent. Pinal County reported 39.64 percent Republican to only 22.64 percent Democrats, 17 percent more. In 2020, that lead was just over 9 percent.

In Yavapai County, another Republican stronghold, the report showed Republicans grew to a 33.85 percent lead over Democrats. In 2020, they held a 27.21 percent lead.

In heavily Democratic Pima County, where Tucson is located, Republicans increased to 28.22 percent, narrowing Democrats’ lead to just over 8 percent at 36.40 percent. A little over a year ago, Democrats held a 10 percent lead. In 2020, at the time of the general election, Democrats commanded an 11 percent voter registration edge, 40.36 percent to Republicans’ 29.12.

The smaller parties remained at low numbers, none reaching over 1 percent statewide. The Green Party reported no change from January at 0.11 percent, and the Libertarian Party saw no change either at 0.71 percent. No Labels increased from 0.78 to 0.89 percent.

Despite a legal settlement with county recorders requiring them to scrub noncitizens from voter rolls, there hasn’t been a noticeable dip in registered voters, which continue increasing. In January, there were 4,462,819 registered voters in the state. That increased to 4,470,621 in July, an additional 7,802 voters.

In January, there were 50,000 federal-only voters on the state’s voter rolls, who are only allowed to vote in federal races due to failing to produce documented proof of citizenship (DPOC).

According to the latest July numbers, that number has dipped to 46,562 federal-only registered voters statewide. Of those, 32,440 have never submitted DPOC. Another 8,114 have not provided proof of residency, and 6,008 have provided neither DPOC nor proof of residency.

State Attorney General Kris Mayes issued an opinion this week stating county recorders should not reject a voter’s registration status unless the voter proves he or she is ineligible. However, Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap is taking a different approach. He notified 83,000 voters that if they do not submit a DPOC within 90 days, they will be reclassified as eligible to vote only in federal elections.

Turning Point Action, which is headquartered in Arizona, has been aggressively registering voters in the state over the past couple of years, to “make the election too big to rig.”

Recent surveys of migration within the U.S. find that approximately 60 percent of new arrivals to the state settle in Maricopa County. In comparison, Pinal County had the state’s highest growth rate at 12.6 percent. The Town of Queen Creek, which is located in both Maricopa and Pinal counties and is a Republican stronghold, grew by 28.6 percent between 2023 and 2024. Tucson isn’t in the top five cities or towns people are moving to in Arizona, according to Consumer Affairs.

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Rachel Alexander is a reporter at The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Rachel on Twitter / X. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “People Voting” by Lorie Shaull. CC BY 2.0.

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