The Democratic Party is dealing with a voter registration crisis across the country while Republicans continue to gain voters, a New York Times journalist explained in an X thread.
Shane Goldmacher shared voter registration data from the 30 states, plus Washington, D.C., that allow partisan registration. In the thread, he noted that Democrats lost 2.1 million voters in those states between 2020 and 2024. Republicans gained 2.4 million voters in the same areas.
In his analysis of the data, Goldmacher reported that Democrats in 2020 had a nearly 11-point lead on Republican voter registration but that the 2024 election showed Democrats leading Republicans by slightly more than six points.
“Along the way, some states have flipped to GOP registration edge entirely,” he continued.
Goldmacher highlighted Florida as an example but added that he expects other states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, to do the same. According to his analysis, Pennsylvania boasted 517,310 more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters in November 2020. In 2025, the edge has been whittled down to a Democratic lead of only 53,303 voters.
He added that North Carolina Republicans took the Democratic voter registration lead down by roughly 95% in only a few years. In 2020, Democrats led Republicans by nearly 400,000. In 2025, Democrats are leading by less than 17,000.
Goldmacher said that the declining voter registration for the Democratic Party proved to be a prediction for the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, noting that “Democratic weakness was concentrated where Trump was strongest, among men and younger voters.”
He continued, “There are few better measurement’s [sic] of a party’s brand than who actively chooses to identify (and register) with it. And fewer and fewer voters are choosing to become Democrats.”
Goldmacher also found that voters are choosing to be independents, rather than identify with the Republican or Democratic parties, but added that “of the people who do choose between the two main parties, the Democratic share has been cratering.”
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Author: Hannah Hiester
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