New York—Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist leading the mayoral race, is splitting the Big Apple right down the middle with nearly half the city giving him the cold shoulder in a fresh poll.
A recent survey by Gotham Polling & Analytics, conducted for the AARP, shows Mamdani holding a commanding 42% of voter support, yet facing a stark divide with 47% viewing him unfavorably and an equal 47% in his corner, while challengers like ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo (23%), GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa (16%), and Mayor Eric Adams (9%) trail far behind.
This poll, taken on August 11, 2025, with 1,400 likely voters, dropped on a Tuesday and paints a picture of a city wrestling with Mamdani’s progressive vision, especially after his unfavorability numbers climbed from a previous range of 30% to the low 40s.
Mamdani’s Lead Holds Despite Growing Doubts
Let’s rewind a bit—Mamdani clinched the Democratic primary in June 2025, besting Cuomo, who’s now running as an independent for the November general election.
Meanwhile, Mayor Adams, skipping the primary and seeking re-election on an independent line, can’t even crack double-digit support in recent polls, a sign his grip on the city may be slipping.
Mamdani’s 42% lead is no small feat, but the poll’s dropout scenarios reveal he still clears that mark even if rivals step aside, suggesting his base is rock-solid for now.
Establishment Democrats Snub Mamdani’s Campaign
Here’s the rub—Mamdani’s struggle to win over establishment Democrats is glaring, with heavyweights like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both Brooklyn natives, keeping their distance.
Gov. Kathy Hochul hasn’t endorsed him either and recently took a swipe at his plan to raise taxes on businesses and the wealthy, a policy that’s got free-market folks raising eyebrows.
Over the weekend, Hochul also criticized Mamdani’s city-run grocery proposal, championing free enterprise instead, which underscores the ideological rift within the party.
Polling Insights Reveal Mamdani’s Firm Base
Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics, noted, “Mamdani sits on a hard floor around forty percent.”
That’s a polite way of saying Mamdani’s got a loyal crowd, but breaking past a majority seems like climbing the Empire State Building without a rope, especially in a fragmented field where his ceiling looks capped.
Graves also remarked on Cuomo’s chances, suggesting that even in a one-on-one matchup, the ex-governor lags by double digits, a tough hill to climb against Mamdani’s entrenched support.
Can Challengers Close the Gap?
Graves added, “A disciplined persuasion campaign could still make this a race.”
That’s a glimmer of hope for Cuomo, Sliwa, or even Adams, but let’s be real—turning the tide against Mamdani’s lead would take a messaging miracle in a city skeptical of anything too far left or too tied to past controversies.
While Mamdani dominates the numbers nearly two months after his primary win, the split in voter opinion and lack of party unity hint at a rocky road ahead, especially when half of New York seems ready to vote for anyone but a socialist. With Cuomo and Sliwa in the mix, and Adams floundering, the mayoral race remains a battle between progressive ideals and a city craving practical governance over ideological experiments.
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Author: Sophia Turner
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