Trump Could Dramatically Cut Crime in DC

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We’re now a week into Donald Trump’s federal takeover of policing in Washington DC because he says crime is “out of control.” Is it? Nobody knows because DC cops cooked the books. “DC police commander suspended, accused of changing crime statistics.”

A typical trick was to downgrade a knifing or a shooting to “felony assault,” which the FBI does not consider a “serious crime.” Or, boyfriend beats girlfriend to a pulp, and it’s classified as “sick person to hospital.” That’s why the DC police union says the city’s claims about crime reduction are “preposterous.”

However, as Steve Sailer notes at Taki’s Magazine, murder is the hardest crime to cover up. I suppose you could claim a sharp rise in drug overdoses, but that’s tricky when the bodies have bullet holes. As you can see in this graph, DC is the fourth most deadly big city in the country, with a homicide rate of 35.9 per 100,000 people, or about six times the national rate.

Mr. Sailer has made a graph of homicides for the last 25 years, and you can see there was a sharp fall from 2002 to 2012, but murders are back up.

And 94 percent of DC murder victims were black. Mr. Sailer reports that for the last seven years, there has been an average of only 1.6 white murder victims every year.

Not even lefties can deny that murder is a black problem. Something called the National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform did a report in 2021 that examined every single killing and every single non-fatal shooting in DC for a period of two years.

It found that 95 to 96 percent of both victims and suspects were black.

In DC, killers mostly kill each other. “Eighty-six percent of homicide victims and suspects were known to the criminal justice system . . . [and] 46 percent had been previously incarcerated.”

“Most victims and suspects with prior criminal offenses had been arrested about 11 times for about 13 different offenses by the time of the homicide.” And that doesn’t include juvenile arrests.

As many as 75 percent of both killers and killed are members of drug gangs, that insult each other on social media. The report says that “most gun violence is tightly concentrated on a small number of very high risk young Black male adults” and that there are “likely no more than 200 at any one given time.”

The report says intense social uplift will claw them back from the abyss.

Sure enough, the very next year, the same National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform issued a Gun Violence Reduction Strategic Plan.

Locking up those 200 very bad eggs would be no good because prison just hardens them.

The solution is “Community Resource Hubs,” a “Real Time Incident Review & Response Center,” and to “expand place-based initiatives,” whatever they are. This is how it’s all this magic is going to work.

But the key is to train Intensive Life Coaches who will track down these 200 awful characters and save them from a life of crime.

Good luck. As the report admits, these lads “have been connected to service providers off and on for many years and are . . . burned out from “services” . . . [and are] “service resistant.”

Of course they are. They have been socially served to within an inch of their lives ever since they slapped a teacher or pulled a girl’s pants down in first grade. And these leftist loons think future killers will sit still for Cognitive Behavioral Therapy.

Before this report was even written, the city must have had hundreds — maybe thousands — of anti-violence gurus. It had Cure the Streets, the Attorney General’s Violence Interruption Program, which ran  “a data-driven, public-health approach to gun violence by treating it as a disease that can be interrupted, treated, and stopped from spreading.”

Get it? They were going to cure sick streets. The Department of Parks and Recreation had a Roving Leaders program “to prevent, neutralize, and control hostile behavior in youth and youth groups.”

DC had a Violence Intervention Initiative, “a collaborative community engagement strategy . . . [to] reduce the incidents of gun-related violence.”

The Office of Gun Violence Prevention dressed its staff in warm-up jackets that said OGVP on them.

Its founding director used “restorative justice . . . to improve the lives of our undervalued, underserved, and at-promise youth.”

The Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement was telling “at risk” youth to put their guns down.

“People of Promise” was figuring out who was “at imminent risk of victimization or involvement in violent crime” and snatching them back from the brink.

The Credible Messenger Initiative was “a transformative, mentoring intervention program for youth.”

And there was Safer, Stronger DC, which “set clear priorities for reducing crime, gun violence, and juvenile crime.”

Non-profits were trying to keep blacks from killing each other. Here is Peace for DC – certainly not diversity for DC.

These folks claim that, “together we can reduce homicides in DC by at least 60%.”

This is the Alliance of Concerned Men.

Its mission is “an all-encompassing village approach to the eradication of violence.”

Here’s a non-profit cheerfully called Yaay Me, which serves “underserved communities,” that are actually lathered with services.

Some of its clients are “returning citizens.” Do you know what they are? “Justice Involved Individuals,” which means they are back from the big house.

Lots of black people make a living in an industry with no bottom line, no accountability, and no real measures of success.

Now, let’s look at some of the 200 very bad people the National Institute of Criminal Justice Reform says make so much trouble.

The institute wants Intensive Life Coaches to round them up, sit them down and cure them with Cognitive Behavioral Therapy. The institute recommends you watch this video to get an idea of how hard-boiled these characters are.

Sorry, but I don’t think it will work. What will?

Remember Steve Sailer’s homicide graph?

Look at that huge dip in murders. The entire country had a dip, though not so steep. Why?

In this graph, the red line is the national homicide rate, which started very high in 1990 and dropped to a low in 2014 before going back up to another high in 2021.

The blue line is the national incarceration rate, which starts low, goes high, and then comes back down. The curves move in opposite directions — for a reason. Putting the bad guys behind bars means they can’t kill you — or rape you or mug you or steal your car. Remember the NICJR’s DC killers and victims who had records? An average of 11 arrests each. Why were they still on the loose?

According to this graph, victims report only 50 percent of serious crimes, the police make arrests in only 11 percent, and only 2 percent lead to convictions.

If these numbers are correct, habitual criminals are getting away with a huge number of crimes. Each one off the streets is a huge service to the public.

And DC has some 200 very bad eggs out there who already have long rap sheets, and who are all but certain to cause more mayhem? Don’t try to turn them into choir boys. Lock them up. They’ll have plenty of time for Cognitive Behavioral Therapy. And fire all those report writers and uplift gurus.

If Mr. Trump’s DC takeover bags even just 50 of those bad eggs, it will do a lot of good. Imagine the city if he collared them all.

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