Derek Scissors offers clues for those searching for false information within future government economic assessments.
The issue is whether we’ll still be able to trust data published by our government or if data falsification is another tactic in . . . whatever the Trump administration is doing.
For reference, here’s how China’s National Statistics Bureau opened its presentation of economic performance in the first half of the year (a 100-word sentence, if you count stuff like that):
“In the first half year, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the efforts to create a new pattern of development, coordinated domestic economic work and endeavors in the international economic and trade field, and implemented more proactive and effective macro policies.”
The Statistics Bureau wants to make clear to all that politics comes first. Once you understand this, you can understand their numbers properly. …
… When should we consider if data are being falsified? One tactic frequently used around the world is to revise results seen under the preceding government to be worse than when they were reported. This sets a new baseline that makes it easier for the existing government to look like it’s succeeding.
A similar phenomenon is when (manipulated) statistics suddenly show an improving economy when new methods are applied or when new policies are announced or implemented. An economy the size of ours typically doesn’t react that way. If policies or events are anticipated, behavior changes in advance. When they are a surprise, our economy is too large in most cases for immediate, large changes.
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Author: Mitch Kokai
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