Lord Ashcroft: Was Trump’s Alaska summit Europe’s moment of truth?

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com.

“The most disgraceful thing was to watch American President Donald Trump welcome Putin, a war criminal, with a smile and a red carpet rolled out by American soldiers”.

This was the reaction of many Ukrainians I spoke to after the Alaska Summit. Yet, diplomacy has often required leaders to reach out to their enemies in the hope of stopping bloodshed. This is what President Trump appeared to aim for. He frequently highlights the relentless bombardment of Ukrainian civilians and hundreds of daily casualties on the battlefield, suggesting these weigh heavily on him.

We don’t know for sure what was discussed in the meeting, and with Zelenskyy due in Washington on Monday, we may yet see progress. But I fear that this time, Trump miscalculated.

He seemed to believe that a business-style deal with Putin and his inner kleptocratic circle would yield better results than confronting him head on, as Biden once did. Convinced of his own deal-making talents, Trump opted for a face-to-face meeting, despite the record of failed deadlines and empty threats that had never compelled Putin to compromise.

The flaw in Trump’s thinking lies in his view of Russia. He appears stuck in the early 2000s, when Russian elites were more eager to make money than make war, and Putin was a newly chosen leader on top of that oligarchic pyramid. But Putin has changed. Even Germany – once Russia’s closest European business partner — has had to accept that reality.

Some argue that Covid isolation accelerated Putin’s transformation. Whatever the cause, he is no longer a corrupt politician who can be bribed with business deals. Trump thought he was meeting the head of kleptocracy; in truth, he faced a ruthless dictator and a blood-thirsty terrorist.

Putin has reached a point of no return with the war in Ukraine, devoting over 40 per cent of Russia’s GDP to it. Vast defence contracts entrenched in corruption schemes enrich his cronies, most of whom now run their own private paramilitary groups similar to the infamous Wagner Group. Above all, Putin is now increasingly dependent on China, which sees America and the global order it created as its main rival.

Many rightly claimed that Putin returned to Moscow satisfied. But the real victor may have been sitting in Beijing.

Regardless, the long-anticipated summit delivered nothing. Putin, despite his attempts to exhibit relaxed confidence, looked unsettled in an orchestrated space as independent journalists shouted uncomfortable questions. Trump, despite claiming that “great progress” had been made in the short meeting, looked as though he was struggling to conceal his disappointment.

Perhaps, the reality that European leaders have tried to impress upon him since January was finally sinking in. Even so, Putin managed to undermine Trump with an off-the-cuff invitation to host the next meeting in Moscow.

The one clear win for the West was that European leaders managed to persuade Trump not to concede Ukrainian territory without Kyiv at the table. After his debrief with President Zelenskyy and European allies, Ukraine swiftly announced direct talks with Trump in Washington. But we can be certain of one thing: there will be no red carpet for Zelenskyy as there was for Putin.

This highlights the stark reality: the burden of this war now fully falls on Europe. While keeping America engaged, European leaders must assume full ownership of a war on their continent. They can no longer kick the can down the road, as Washington just has.

Strategic autonomy can only be achieved if Europe seizes Russia’s frozen assets in the EU and the UK, redirecting them for defence. With pledges to raise defence spending to five per cent of GDP, Europe must rapidly ramp up production, procurement and delivery of arms to Ukraine.

This alone will not end the war overnight. Russia will persist with its brutal tactics targeting civilians while achieving little progress on the battlefield. Yet, Ukrainians will endure if they see that the civilised world is truly backing them – helping them to win, not extend the war.

Ukraine has already demonstrated its capacity to strike at the heart of Russia’s economy, with long-range attacks reducing oil output by over  four per cent of GDP. With its innovative defence sector, resilience and practical support from European NATO states, Ukraine can, and will, prevail.

But only if Europe steps up.

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