While it’s true this is a high-stakes meeting with Russia, on Friday, Donald Trump will sit down with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Ukraine will almost certainly dominate the agenda, but it won’t be the only thing that matters.
Absolute mic drop moment from Trump just now on his meeting with Putin:
“In the first two minutes, I’ll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made.”
“How will you know that?”
“Because that’s what I do — I make deals.”
pic.twitter.com/zCim4HEi8n— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) August 11, 2025
Here’s what the talking heads are missing: this summit isn’t just about Russia or Ukraine. The real audience isn’t in the room. It’s in Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang.
China, Iran, and North Korea will study this meeting the way a poker player studies an opponent. Every handshake, every smile, every shift in tone will be analyzed for clues about how the U.S. plans to handle its rivals. They won’t just dissect the official statements, they’ll be reading the body language, the offhand remarks, and the moments in between. It’s the oldest trick in geopolitics: look past the words and watch the tells.
China: Testing the Waters for Taiwan
Xi Jinping’s government will watch closely to see how Trump treats Putin. Is it the language of partnership or the tone of confrontation? A warm, cooperative exchange could encourage Beijing to believe America is willing to overlook bad behavior in the interest of getting along. That could embolden China to push harder on Taiwan, step up military patrols in the South China Sea, and test America’s willingness to respond.
On the other hand, if Trump takes a firm and unflinching tone, China may think twice before escalating. Beijing isn’t just watching the U.S.–Russia dynamic. It’s looking for patterns in how Trump deals with strongmen who challenge American interests. The Taiwan question is never far from their mind, and any perceived softness toward Putin could be read as an opening for China to act.
Iran: Gauging America’s Willpower After the Bombings
Tehran will be watching this meeting with fresh memories of U.S. airstrikes still in mind. In June, the United States launched Operation Midnight Hammer, pounding Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Washington boasted the program was crippled for years. But leaked intelligence tells a different story. One where some facilities could be back online within months. The truth sits in the shadows, and no one outside the inner circle knows exactly how much of Iran’s nuclear machine is still humming.
Iran’s rulers will now be asking themselves: Was that operation a one-time show of force, or the start of a sustained pressure campaign? And how does Trump’s treatment of Putin fit into that answer?
If Trump sidesteps Russia’s role in helping Iran skirt sanctions, build economic lifelines, or funnel weapons to proxies, Tehran could take it as a green light to keep pushing. A summit that looks too cozy could reinforce that confidence.
North Korea: Watching the Respect Factor
Kim Jong Un has been on the receiving end of Trump’s strongman diplomacy before. He knows what it means when Trump offers deference, and he also knows what it means when Trump decides to play hardball.
Sure, maybe the North Korean dictator isn’t sitting around reading body language like a relationship coach. But if Trump treats Putin with the kind of public respect he once gave Kim, Pyongyang might decide it’s open season again on missile launches, nuclear tests, and the usual. North Korea loves a good distraction, and a chummy Trump–Putin summit could be just the excuse Kim needs to make some noise.
The Subtext Matters More Than the Text
Most summits end with some kind of joint statement, but no one expects this meeting to produce a major agreement. The real story will be in the subtext, the things left unsaid, the tone of the exchanges, and the body language that speaks louder than official talking points.
Will Trump project the image of a leader who demands accountability? Or will he focus on building a personal rapport, even at the cost of appearing too accommodating? That’s what America’s adversaries are watching for. But this is Putin, and Trump’s strength isn’t in doubt. Even when the media claims otherwise, he has a way of proving them wrong.
The Kremlin understands this game. So do Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang. They know that international politics isn’t just about treaties and press releases. It’s about reading your opponent and exploiting any sign of weakness.
The Bottom Line
The press will measure this summit in soundbites. America’s enemies will measure it in openings.
For Trump, summits like this are never just about the official agenda. They’re negotiations, plain and simple. He plays them the way he’s outlined for decades: project strength, control the tempo, never give the other side the upper hand. It’s the Art of the Deal on the world stage. And the audience isn’t just Putin. It’s every rival power taking notes.
Feature Image: Generated by Grok via X
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Author: Carol Marks
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