Ex-advisor to Clinton explains why AOC could take the White House in 2028, and Kamala Harris wont

A potential third White House bid by former Vice President Kamala Harris could be over before it begins, as political analyst Doug Schoen pointed out which congresswoman holds a significant edge.

Whether rallying for open border lawlessness, wasteful spending, or Marxist ideologies, Democratic lawmakers have shown themselves to be unfazed by disfavor for their radical positions moving forward. So, while it would track for them to pick the twice-failed Harris for a third go at the White House, polling was just one metric Schoen used to make his case that New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had a better shot in 2028.

Writing for Fox News, the onetime adviser for then-President Bill Clinton argued in his op-ed that Harris was not “the real Democratic contender to watch” after passing on a bid for the California gubernatorial race.

“Rather — implausible as it may seem to some,” Schoen said, “New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appears to be the front-runner for Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination, should she forgo a Senate campaign, which she would almost certainly win.”

To support his case, he pointed out that the New York lawmaker was “even stronger” numbers than previous presidential candidates this far out from White House runs, including then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who “was not even considered enough of a serious candidate to be included in polls,” shortly after taking office in 2005.

Adding quantifiable data to his argument, Schoen cited polling aggregator Race to the White House that put Ocasio-Cortez in a close third behind the virtually tied former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with Harris out of consideration.

Meanwhile, with Harris in the running, she lost 14 points of support to hold onto a slim lead while Ocasio-Cortez gained 4.6 points in her favor. Like Buttigieg and Newsom, she was on the rise.

2028 National Democratic Primary polling average by @RacetotheWH

• Kamala Harris: 21.1% (-14.0)
• Pete Buttigieg: 17.4% (+7.4)
• Gavin Newsom: 12.7% (+4.7)
• A. Ocasio-Cortez: 11.9% (+4.6)
• Cory Booker: 4.9% (+2.5)
• Josh Shapiro: 4.2% (-1.1)

(+/- shift vs March 1) pic.twitter.com/BDCAcTou2t

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 3, 2025

Further, though the former vice president has an edge on the overall pack, when pitted head-to-head against the New York lawmaker, AtlasIntel put the Squad member up 19%-15% and also ranked her with a 46% favorability rating, higher than President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and Harris at 44%, 42% and 42% respectively.

Another point to consider is the congresswoman’s considerable fundraising, as the Wall Street Journal showed progressive politicians were banking big bucks with Ocasio-Cortez already raising over $15 million in 2025, having toured the United States with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), jet-setting to “Fight Oligarchy.”

“To be sure, there are legitimate doubts as to whether or not Ocasio-Cortez would be a viable candidate. She will turn 39 years old just weeks before the 2028 election, and her far-left ideology may be less attractive in a general election,” opined Schoen. “And yet, in terms of winning a Democratic primary, history and current polling suggest that AOC may well be a formidable candidate for whichever position she chooses.”

In addition to the zeal for donations, the analyst argued leftist ideology could help her in the primary, given the radical nature of the party in recent years and the likelihood that moderates would support whoever was atop the ballot come the general election.