‘Imminent’: Tehran’s nuclear threat and the urgent need to trigger the snapback mechanism

The barbaric conflict that started Oct. 7, 2023, marked by widespread casualties, terror, torture and hostage-taking, delivered a harsh lesson to the West: Appeasing the Iranian mullahs’ regime inevitably leads to war.

Under the 2015 nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, in an effort to contain Tehran $150 billion in frozen Iranian assets were released to the Middle East’s major sponsor of terrorism. The regime used these funds not for the welfare of its own people, but to expand its network of proxy militias across the region, enrich uranium to 60%, and move dangerously close to building a nuclear bomb.

Even targeted airstrikes on its nuclear facilities can no longer ensure that the world is safe from a weapon that would undoubtedly be used as an instrument of war and destruction.

The nuclear threat posed by Iran must be taken seriously. The Islamic Republic currently possesses over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% and is just a few technical steps away from producing a nuclear weapon. In 2020, Iran operated only 512 centrifuges. By 2025, that number has soared to over 11,000 advanced centrifuges.

Simultaneously, the regime continues to test ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. This is no longer a theoretical danger – it is an imminent one.

Despite international scrutiny, the Iranian regime has never abandoned its pursuit of nuclear weapons. It has merely continued its efforts in secrecy, with increasing sophistication.

According to revelations from the theocratic regime’s main opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, or NCRI, Tehran’s nuclear weapons program was never halted – it was simply concealed behind a new political façade. Since 2009, under direct orders from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a secret initiative known as “Project Kavir” has been underway, managed by the SPND organization, a research and development agency within the Iranian Ministry of Defense tasked with developing new military technologies. It’s aim: the development of long-range nuclear weapons with a reach of over 3,000 kilometers.

Concurrently, research on tritium and nuclear fusion is being pursued to amplify the destructive power of these weapons.

To support this program, Iran’s Semnan province has been transformed into a military zone, where four secret military facilities have been constructed. Additionally, the regime is producing “Ghaem 100” solid-fuel and “Simorgh” liquid-fuel missiles – both with ranges exceeding 3,000 kilometers – under the guise of civilian space exploration.

Feeding the crocodile didn’t tame it, but made it more dangerous

European policymakers had hoped economic engagement would lead to a more moderate Iranian regime. Instead, the opposite occurred: More money led to more centrifuges, more missiles and increased domestic repression. The regime failed to honor its commitments and exploited the diplomatic vacuum to accelerate its militarization.

Rooted in medieval ideology and incapable of meeting the demands of a young, modern and forward-looking population, the mullahs’ regime depends on war and regional terrorism for survival. Nuclear weapons and long-range missiles are tools of survival – not deterrence – for this regime. Its survival is so deeply entwined with its nuclear program that expecting a voluntary halt to enrichment, or the abandonment of a project that has consumed over $2 trillion, is dangerously naïve.

In the face of this mounting threat, the only effective legal mechanism left is the JCPOA’s “snapback” provision. This allows any of the remaining signatories – especially the European troika of Germany, France and the United Kingdom – to unilaterally restore all U.N. sanctions against the Iranian regime, without the need for a vote or consensus. Crucially, neither Russia nor China can block this process.

With support from its lobbyists in the West, Tehran promotes the narrative that sanctions harm the Iranian population and lead to shortages of food and medicine. Yet the 2017 uprising, which occurred after billions of dollars were released under the JCPOA, revealed the truth: Those funds were funneled into repression, armament and the export of terrorism – not into improving the lives of ordinary Iranians.

Today, the Islamic Republic is closer than ever to building a nuclear bomb. The snapback mechanism, enshrined in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, is the last viable legal and practical tool to prevent a nuclear catastrophe. Silence or delay in triggering it will carry a heavy cost – for regional stability and for global peace. Europe must not hesitate to act.