A Stanford University-led study estimates that COVID-19 vaccinations saved 2.5 million lives from 2020 to 2024, mostly among older adults and far fewer than earlier reports suggested.
That’s the equivalent of one death averted for every 5,400 vaccine doses administered worldwide during the period, according to the findings published Friday in JAMA Health Forum. Official estimates say 7 million people died from the virus worldwide in those years.
Led by three Stanford researchers, the study noted that 90% of the lives saved were among people 60 or older, and 82% stemmed from vaccinations administered before they tested positive for COVID.
Lead author John P. A. Ioannidis, a Stanford epidemiologist, said the estimates are much lower than the 20 million lives that early studies claimed vaccines saved in the first year of inoculations alone.
At the same time, he said they refute the exaggerated estimates of vaccine skeptics who claim the jabs “killed many millions of people.”
“I hope that people who have taken or even published extreme positions regarding COVID-19 vaccines, either favorable or unfavorable, will be willing to consider our findings with calm reflection,” Dr. Ioannidis said in an email. “We are open to revising our estimates if better data arise in the future.”
He said the “substantial uncertainty” that still clings to official COVID death tallies calls for rigorous long-term randomized trials of future vaccines, which did not occur in the rush to inoculate people during the recent pandemic.
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Author: Marty Kaufmann
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