Scott Jennings dumps cold water on Dem strategist’s argument suggesting Trump voters will sit out 2026 election

Republican strategist Scott Jennings pushed back on Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha’s Sunday suggestion that President Donald Trump’s handling of issues related to Jeffrey Epstein and Ukraine would diminish his base’s “motivation” in the 2026 midterm elections.

Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has risen despite his base’s backlash to his administration’s handling of documents pertaining to Epstein. When Rocha said on “CNN Newsroom” that Epstein was such a significant issue to Trump’s base that it would hurt Republicans in the midterms, Jennings noted the president’s rising approval rating and disputed that his claim that his base does not back him on Ukraine.

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“This is a classic: ‘The dog who finally caught the car.’ Because that’s all the Republicans — not all about Trump — he’s talked about it some, but their entire base has been fixated on this. And I know we’re going to talk about the midterm elections, I know we’re going to talk about issues and the latest CNN polling,” Rocha said. “But let me tell you something, as an election expert, is that the midterms are about motivation. Every midterm election — I’ve been doing this for 30-some years — I’m trying to figure out how to motivate Democrats, and Republicans are trying to figure out how to motivate [Republicans].”

“This is not good for motivation for their base. You add on to this, giving weapons to Ukraine — which I support — but their base does not, and other things that they feel disappointed in with our own CNN polling, then you start seeing cracks in the fissure for motivation for a midterm,” he continued.

Jennings said he fully agreed about midterms coming down to “base motivation” — but argued Trump’s base remains energized.

“And right now Democrats and Republicans have sort of flipped in terms of who’s got the more committed voters — or frequent voters, I should say,” he added. “But in terms of what the base is doing with Donald Trump right now: they support him on Iran. It’s not true, they do support him on Ukraine. Because what he’s done is he’s put NATO in the middle of this, and it’s not U.S. tax dollars — it’s European countries.”

Trump announced on July 14 that the U.S. would send weapons to Ukraine through NATO, marking a reversal from past policy.

“The base is with Donald Trump. In fact, it is true — his numbers among Republicans continue to rise. They couldn’t go up much higher because they’re so good already,” Jennings said. “But the base is with Trump — regardless of whatever is roiling or boiling in the political seas out there — you can’t deny his numbers among his voters, his Republican voters, are higher than they’ve ever been.”

Quinnipiac University polling published on Wednesday found that Trump’s approval rating among Republicans had risen to 90%.  A CNN/SSRS poll published the same day also found that the president’s approval rating among Republicans had climbed to 88%.

Moreover, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten also noted on Thursday that the same Quinnipiac poll showed congressional Democrats’ net approval rating had plunged to its lowest ever among Democrats.

“In June of 2025, it was their second-worst ever at minus 12 points. Is that not low enough for you? How about we go even lower? In July of 2025, minus 13 points, their worst net approval rating for congressional Democrats among Democrats ever!” he said. “Donald Trump is not the one who has problems with his political base. It is congressional Democrats who are the ones who have problems with their own political base.”

Enten also said on Wednesday that Democrats were historically lagging in polls by significant margins ahead of the midterms compared to 2006 and 2018.