Is Putin starting to feel the agony of defeat?

It would be premature to declare a Ukrainian victory in Russian madman Vladimir Putin’s messianic war.  A real victory – ousting the Russians from all of Ukraine soil and paying reparations – is unlikely to impossible, according to the foreign affairs establishment in Washington.  President Trump sees victory in a ceasefire and a peace agreement – even if Putin gets to keep the land he occupies.

(For the record, I see that as a win for Putin.  He will not give up his ambition to seize all of Ukraine.  He will use any pause in the fighting as an opportunity to regroup and rearm.  He will also engage through diplomatic pressure and KGB espionage to weaken the Kyiv government.  Such an agreement will never bring lasting peace but merely set the stage for a future bloody conflict.)

The war in Ukraine — now well into its third year — has reached a critical juncture. Despite Russia’s initial expectations of a swift victory, the conflict has devolved into a grinding war of attrition that has exposed deep vulnerabilities in Putin’s military strategy, his military infrastructure, economic resilience, and political standing.

Ukraine, though battered, continues to demonstrate remarkable ingenuity and resolve, striking back with increasing effectiveness—even inside Russian territory. Meanwhile, international support for Kyiv is intensifying, with new weapons packages, sanctions, and strategic partnerships reshaping the battlefield dynamics. The question now is whether the war is approaching a tipping point. 

Mounting Battlefield Failures

Putin’s forces are struggling to make meaningful territorial gains. According to a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analysis, Russian troops have advanced at a glacial pace—just 50 meters per day in some areas like Kharkiv, slower than offensives in World War I. Even in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia has concentrated its efforts, the average rate of advance is only 135 meters per day. Since January, Russia has seized just 5,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory—less than 1% of the country.

This stagnation is compounded by staggering equipment losses. Russia has lost more than 1,800 tanks, 3,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and hundreds of artillery systems at a cost of billions of dollars. Ukrainian forces, leveraging drones and precision strikes, have inflicted disproportionate damage, with some estimates suggesting a 5 to 1 ratio in Ukraine’s favor.

Ukraine’s Strikes on Russia

Remember when attacking inside Russia was unthinkable?  Ukraine is now taking the fight into Mother Russia. In June 2025, Kyiv launched a daring drone offensive dubbed “Spider’s Web,” targeting airfields across Russia—including in Irkutsk, Murmansk, Ryazan, and Kursk—some as far as 4,500 kilometers from Ukraine. The operation damaged or destroyed 41 aircraft, including strategic bombers and surveillance planes.

Ukraine actually sent troops into Russia’s Kursk Oblast – taking control of more than 425 square miles and 82 settlements, and taking hundreds of Russian prisoners of war. Despite a major Russian counteroffensive, Ukraine maintains a hold on 35 square miles of Mother Russia.

Ukraine has also targeted oil refineries, military factories, and bridges inside Russia, disrupting supply chains and exposing vulnerabilities. These strikes not only degrade Russia’s war machine but also shatter the illusion of domestic security, forcing the Kremlin to divert resources to homeland defense.

Manpower Problem

Perhaps the most devastating impact is the human toll. Russia is expected to surpass 1 million casualties this summer, including 250,000 fatalities. These losses dwarf those from Russia’s previous conflicts, including Afghanistan and Chechnya, and have eroded morale across the ranks. Reports of Russian commanders forcing wounded soldiers to advance under threat of execution paint a grim picture of desperation.

Rebuilding the force is a vexing problem in terms of human beings and money. Putin’s government has dramatically ramped up monetary rewards to entice Russians into military service. In Moscow, authorities began offering a signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles (about $22,000)—a staggering sum compared to the average Russian salary. Recruits can earn up to 5.2 million rubles ($59,600) in their first year, with additional compensation for injuries or death. These incentives are not limited to Moscow.  Other regions have followed suit, offering bonuses ranging from 500,000 to 1.6 million rubles, depending on local budgets.  The Kremlin has also extended these payments to the Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard), offering 400,000 rubles ($4,600) to those willing to fight in Ukraine.

While the money has helped fill some ranks, it’s also exposed a troubling reality.  Many of the new recruits are motivated solely by financial need, not patriotism or military experience. Analysts warn that this approach is unsustainable and risks degrading the professionalism of Russia’s armed forces.

The reliance on financial incentives and foreign fighters may keep troop numbers afloat in the short term, but it also reveals a regime desperate to avoid political backlash. Mobilization is deeply unpopular, and the Kremlin knows it. That’s why it’s trying to buy soldiers instead of conscripting them—and why so many Russians are choosing exile over enlistment.

Mass Exodus

Perhaps the most damning indictment of Russia’s recruitment crisis is the mass flight of young men from the country. Following Putin’s partial mobilization order in September 2022, more than 261,000 Russians fled within weeks. Many crossed into neighboring countries like Georgia, Finland, and Kazakhstan, while others scrambled to book flights out of Moscow—some paying thousands of dollars for one-way tickets.

This exodus has continued as fears of a broader draft persist. In March 2025, Putin signed a decree ordering the largest conscription campaign in 14 years, calling up 160,000 men aged 18 to 30. Although the Kremlin insists these conscripts won’t be sent to Ukraine, skepticism remains high. The result is a growing demographic crisis. In recent days, highways leading out of Russia have been jammed with single men between 18 and 30. Flights leave Russia with no empty seats.

With so many young men fleeing or avoiding service, Russia faces not only military strain but long-term economic and social consequences. The pool of qualified recruits is shrinking, and the burden of war is increasingly falling on poorer, rural, and minority communities.

Outsourcing the War

As domestic recruitment falters, Russia has increasingly turned to foreign nationals to bolster its ranks. Reports indicate that up to 15,000 Nepalese soldiers have been recruited, many of whom were misled about the nature of their service and now face trauma, injury, or death. Other foreign fighters hail from India, Cuba, Syria, Somalia, and even North Korea, with some lured by promises of high salaries and fast-track Russian citizenship.

In one particularly striking case, North Korea reportedly sent 10,000 troops to support Russian operations in Kursk, a region near the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Russia has granted citizenship to over 3,000 foreign fighters, further incentivizing enlistment from abroad.

(We were told that we had to be restrained in order to avoid kicking off a third world war.  Methinks this looks like a world war on at least one side.  But I digress.

Economic Strain

Russia’s ability to sustain the war is increasingly in question. The ruble has plummeted, inflation has soared past 8 percent, and interest rates have hit 21 percent—the highest since the early 2000s. The Kremlin’s war spending now consumes a whopping 40 percent of the federal budget, with defense costs projected to reach $176 billion in 2025.

To fund Putin’s folly, Russia has resorted to off-budget loans, pressuring banks to extend credit to defense contractors. These loans—estimated at over $400 billion—are now eating into corporate profits and threatening a credit crisis. Meanwhile, social services, infrastructure, and healthcare are being gutted to prioritize military expenditures.

Despite these challenges, Russia continues to export oil and gas, generating revenue that helps fund the war. However, Western sanctions and falling global energy prices are squeezing these lifelines.

Trump Turns More Hawkish

President Trump, initially hesitant to back Ukraine, has recently pivoted toward a more assertive stance. In July 2025, he announced a plan to send Patriot missile systems and other advanced weapons to Ukraine via NATO, with European allies footing the bill. This arrangement allows the U.S. to support Ukraine without direct financial burden, while bolstering NATO’s role in the conflict.

Trump also issued a 50-day ultimatum to Putin to reach a ceasefire or face severe economic penalties. While some critics argue the timeline gives Putin room to maneuver, others see it as a strategic pressure campaign. 

Trump’s proposed 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia—such as China and India—could further cripple the Kremlin’s economy.  He should proceed rather than dangle them as bait to get Putin to the table.  Yes, it will temporarily put upward pressure on American gas prices, but that seems a small sacrifice for the greater good.

Trump currently opposes attacks on Russia’s two largest cities – Moscow and St. Petersburg.  However, he has suggested that if Putin does not come to the table, that position could change.  Putin has responded by again rattling the nuclear war saber.  It is a desperate, empty threat and should be treated as such.

Increased Global Support

NATO and other nations are ramping up support for Ukraine. Germany, Norway, and Finland are among the countries supplying Patriot systems and other air defense platforms. The NATO Support and Procurement Agency is coordinating logistics, ensuring the rapid delivery of weapons and equipment.

Beyond NATO, countries like South Korea and Israel are contributing artillery and air defense systems, while Ukraine’s domestic arms industry is booming. Kyiv now produces 40 percent of its own weaponry, including millions of drones that account for up to 80 percent of Russian casualties.

The European Union is also considering releasing frozen Russian assets—worth over $200 billion—to fund Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction. These moves signal a long-term commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. The Union should proceed with that option immediately – without hesitation or delay.

Is the War at a Tipping Point?

Russia is not winning.  It is struggling to maintain a war of attrition – hoping for unforeseen opportunities in the future.  Putin is seeking time. But the convergence of battlefield setbacks, economic strain, and international pressure suggests the war may be approaching a decisive moment. Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russia, combined with growing Western support, is shifting the strategic balance.

Putin’s regime faces mounting internal dissent, logistical challenges, and a faltering economy. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s resilience and innovation continue to defy expectations. If Trump’s tariffs materialize and NATO’s weapons arrive swiftly, Russia may be forced to reconsider its objectives—or risk collapse under the weight of its own ambitions.

Perhaps this is not the time for a cease-fire or a dubious peace agreement.  Perhaps there is the possibility of a true victory.  Perhaps it is time to double down and leave the Madman of Moscow only one option – defeat.  We can only hope that Trump and our allies will seize the opportunity.

So, there ‘tis.

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