Doug Casey on Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’: Defense Dollars, Debt, and the Real Cost of Spending Sprees

Via International Man

International Man: Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” involves massive government spending—how do you see that impacting the already unsustainable US national debt, and is there any real distinction between that and the kind of spending we saw under Biden?

Doug Casey: It’s ironic that the “Big Beautiful Bill” has the same initials—BBB—as Biden’s “Build Back Better.”

I haven’t read all 887 pages of the bill. And I suspect very few Congress critters have either; it’s something only a lawyer or a lobbyist might do. But I have read analyses and summaries. It’s clear that it’s just a hodgepodge, a conglomeration of notions and pork. Nothing new, just like almost every other bill that’s come out of Washington, DC, for many decades.

There’s very little to recommend it if you’re concerned about freedom and prosperity. It’s essentially 887 pages of additional things you must do, and must not do, with penalties for non-compliance, and new taxes to fund it all.

Trump’s utter lack of a philosophical core is increasingly evident. I’ve come to the conclusion that, other than his entertainment value, troll-like sense of humor, and not being Kamala Harris, the only consistently good thing about Trump is his anti-woke stance. And he’s not anti-woke based on philosophical principle, but just because of his gut feelings.

The bill doesn’t just raise spending and taxes, it creates chaos, adding complexity through new mandates and cutouts. Typical of narcissists, much of what Trump does will wind up making enemies everywhere, for no good reason. But he doesn’t realize that. He’s what’s known as a bullshit artist. He thinks his glib words actually pull the wool over people’s eyes, when all they do is expose him as a shallow conman.

International Man: What should have the bill done?

Doug Casey: There’s no attempt to implement the findings of the DOGE, which uncovered immense amounts of fraud, waste, and corruption within the US government. DOGE could have changed the course of the US. But it turned out to be nothing but a shameless PR stunt. No wonder Musk quit in disgust.

Instead of adding to the deficits and total debt, which is what this bill does, I would have liked to see an outright default on the national debt. I realize that sounds like an outrageous, even ridiculous suggestion, because it would lead to the wholesale failure of the current financial system. So let’s explore a few particulars of the mad concept.

The Fed should be abolished. Gold should be reinstated as the national currency. About 90% of Federal agencies should be abolished. The “defense” budget should be decreased by 75%, instead of being increased to a trillion dollars per year. All US troops should withdraw from all foreign bases. The government should resign its membership in the UN, NATO, and scores of other clubs and treaties. All aid and subsidies of domestic corporations and foreign governments should cease… There’s a lot more, but that’s a good start.

Regarding the national debt, it effectively transfers wealth from the average taxpayer—who is already being devastated by currency inflation—to the wealthy individuals and institutions who own it. The debt will be defaulted on eventually, probably indirectly, through inflation. I simply believe it should be defaulted on directly. Insofar as a default can ever be honest, that’s the only honest way to do it.

Compare it to a 100-story building on the verge of collapse. It’s better to conduct a controlled demolition, with a warning, than wait for it to fall on everyone unexpectedly.

There are other reasons for a default, however. First, it would free future generations of Americans from being turned into serfs just to pay it off. Second, it would punish the people who have enabled the State by lending it money to fund all the terrible things it does, like fighting wars, enriching its lackeys, and expanding the welfare state.

But none of that is going to happen. I only mention these things for your intellectual amusement. Maybe John Hunt and I will do a novel about the way a default would sort out. But we’re behind schedule on “Terrorist,” the 4th in the current series. So, one thing at a time as we watch the ongoing collapse of Western Civ…

Another bad thing about the big buffoonish bill is that it’s a distraction from the corruption exposed in the Epstein matter. Trump has said he doesn’t want to hear any more about Epstein. I expect he will, however. It should be the biggest scandal since the Dreyfuss affair in France at the turn of the 20th century.

International Man: Trump’s bill includes a $1 trillion allocation for defense spending and provisions that appear to expand the President’s authority.

Does that signal a trend toward militarization and centralized power under the guise of economic or national security?

Doug Casey: Absolutely. I’m surprised that there’s not wholesale outrage at the fact that it increases annual defense spending to a trillion dollars a year, when, in fact, military spending could and should be cut back radically. This is further proof of how supine and degraded the average American has become.

For one thing, it funds the so-called “Golden Dome,” which we analyzed in some detail last week (link).

In addition, it designates about $170 billion to ICE and border enforcement. While sending illegal migrants back where they came from is a good thing, as with all government agencies and actions, the extra agents that are hired will never be fired. The 100,000 new detention beds contemplated by the act will remain long after Trump is gone. They will just be repurposed by the Democrats. The government will continue growing like a cancerous self-licking ice cream cone.

The bottom line is that the bill directs a lot more power and dollars toward the State, and in no way cuts back the State. Americans may not like the migrants, but I suspect they’re going to like thousands of new ICE agents checking to see if their “papers are in order” even less.

International Man: When comparing Trump’s spending to Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda, do you see any meaningful differences in their impact on the economy, or is it simply two sides of the same inflationary coin?

Doug Casey: The main difference between them is who gets the pork and the rhetoric that surrounds it. For instance, there’s a section in the bill reinforcing farm subsidies, which—depending on various conditions—slop from $30 to $60 billion per year to farmers, as if they were hogs. Nothing new, these egregious subsidies have been around for many decades. They’re welfare payments. In addition to corrupting farmers, they necessitate the Department of Agriculture (DOA), which employs 100,000 bureaucrats.

Anything the DOA does that’s useful would be done by entrepreneurs. This bill just further cements industrial agriculture in place and makes the survival of family farms even more difficult.

You might also consider the $1,000 “Trump accounts” for kids. Trump loves anything with his name attached to it. But it’s a bad idea. It gives the public the idea that Trump is giving them something for nothing, and gets them in the habit of receiving stolen goods. Needless to say, a new agency will have to be set up to monitor the accounts. Maybe the amount should be raised to $10,000 or $100,000. Then Trump could claim he was creating a whole generation of multimillionaires.

International Man: Do you believe the spending surge under Trump, including this bill, will help normalize trillion-dollar deficits, and what does that mean for the US dollar going forward?

Doug Casey: Forget about trillion-dollar deficits. That’s far in the rear-view window. We’re looking at three, four, and five trillion-dollar deficits. That’s after the multi-trillion-dollar tax increase through tariffs.

Also, the BBB has almost no reference to deregulation. It’s just another tax, spend, and borrow bill. The additional chaos it causes might immanentize the financial eschaton that we’re facing. I’m not talking about ten years or even five years from now. I think it’ll happen within Trump’s term.

And the Republicans, worthless as they are, will be blamed. I couldn’t care less about them, but because they’re somehow associated with free market values, those values will also be blamed. In 2028, therefore, the chances are excellent that the lefties will be elected. Even assuming that Trump serves out the remainder of his term, which I think is in doubt. Things could get seriously out of control.

I’m afraid that Trump is acting much like Roosevelt did in 1932. Few people know that when Roosevelt ran for office, he ran on what amounted to a radical free market platform. His proposed policies were almost libertarian in nature, as a reaction to the horrible statist and dirigiste policies of the benighted Herbert Hoover, who’s always falsely painted as a free market guy. After Roosevelt was in office, he instituted something close to socialism in the US.

I think Trump—who’s always been an egomaniac—is turning into a megalomaniac. The man never, ever, admits he’s wrong. That’s very dangerous. It’s scary.

For a while, because Kamala was defeated, it looked like Morning in America. But unfortunately, morning only lasts six hours.

Editor’s Note: Doug Casey has long warned that the U.S. is heading toward a major financial reckoning—and now, with soaring debt, political dysfunction, and an overstretched economy, the collapse he’s predicted may be closer than ever.

That’s why this free special report is a must-read. Inside, you’ll discover practical steps to protect your wealth, safeguard your freedom, and uncover overlooked opportunities to thrive—not just survive—when the system starts to unravel.

Download your free copy of the “Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse” now.