What The Brand New Inflation Numbers Mean for Your 2026 Social Security COLA

There are many people who get most of their retirement income from Social Security and need those benefits desperately to cover their expenses. It’s people in this situation who are probably very eager to know what Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, they’ll receive in 2026.

The purpose of Social Security COLAs is to help ensure that retirees do not lose buying power year after year due to inflation. There are some people who end up collecting Social Security for decades, and over time, the value of money tends to decline. COLAs are supposed to correct for that so seniors who are very dependent on Social Security do not fall behind.

Meanwhile, some news on inflation just came out that could make a huge difference in 2026’s Social Security COLA. Here’s what you need to know.

June saw a large uptick in inflation

Social Security COLAs are tied directly to inflation. The more it rises, the larger a COLA seniors can typically expect.

Social Security COLAs are not based on a single month of inflation. Rather, they’re based on changes in inflation during the third quarter of the year.

In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% on an annual basis. It also rose 0.3% compared to May.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a subset of the CPI, rose 2.6% on an annual basis in June. It’s the CPI-W that Social Security COLAs are based on.

What does this mean for you? This increase in inflation was larger than many expected. And it could lead to a larger Social Security COLA in 2026. However, because COLAs are based on August and September data as well, it’s too soon to know what number seniors will be looking at in the new year.

A larger COLA isn’t necessarily great news

People on Social Security tend to want as large a COLA each year as possible, which is understandable. But one important thing to realize is that a larger COLA is not necessarily a great thing financially.

On one hand, it’s nice for seniors to get a decent raise. However, the only way Social Security benefits go up substantially from one year to the next is if there’s a significant rise in inflation. And a large uptick in inflation generally means that seniors, and consumers across the board, are spending more on their essential expenses.

In fact, if anything, seniors on Social Security might benefit more from a smaller COLA if it means that their bills remain flat or don’t rise so much. For this reason, it’s hard to celebrate the possibility of a large COLA in 2026, even though that’s what many seniors may want.

The Social Security Administration is scheduled to make an official COLA announcement in October. If inflation slows down in August and September, then 2026’s COLA could be comparable to or even lower than 2025’s raise of 2.5%. But if inflation keeps climbing, seniors could be looking at a larger boost. Whether that’s a good thing, however, is questionable.

The post What The Brand New Inflation Numbers Mean for Your 2026 Social Security COLA appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..