Via YouGov.
He wins Republicans (natch) and that’s it. He even loses men and is tied with whites and those 65+ (accounting for MOE)!
Side note: it is striking that Hispanics are the most decisive group–zero are “not sure” about their opinions of Trump!
Keeping in mind that these days it is expected that the baseline for popularity is around the 50/50 due to polarized partisanship, the reality is that Trump is an especially unpopular president. The fact that he is doing what he promised, and a lot of people don’t like it (note “independents” above in particular), adds credence to the notion that he won in 2024 as much because of general frustration with the incumbent administration as it was anything about Trump himself. This is not to say he and his policies don’t have ardent supporters (they do), but that those policies are less likely the reason he won than, again, a global anti-incumbency mood due to COVID and inflation.
In regards to Biden, note below that he was simply quite unpopular towards the end of his term. Presidential elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent party.
This is heartening only insofar as the threat Trump poses to American democracy and general governance would be even greater than it is if he were popular (and it is still a significant threat, don’t get me wrong).
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Author: Steven L. Taylor
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