Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger (left) and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (right) are facing off in Virginia’s 2025 race for governor. A new VCU poll shows Spanberger leading by 12 points among registered voters. (Spanberger photo by Markus Schmidt/Virginia Mercury, Earle-Sears photo by Parker Michels-Boyce for the Virginia Mercury)
With fewer than four months to go before Virginians elect a new slate of statewide leaders, a new poll from Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs finds Democrats holding early leads in all three top races — and voters sharply focused on economic pressures and personal freedoms.
The latest Commonwealth Poll, conducted June 19–July 3, captures evolving voter sentiment in advance of the 2025 election and suggests momentum has shifted further toward Democratic candidates, particularly among independents.
In the closely watched race for governor, former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by 12 points, 49% to 37%. That marks an improvement from the Wilder School’s previous poll in December 2024, which showed Spanberger ahead 45% to 35%.
State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Richmond, running for lieutenant governor, leads Republican John Reid, a conservative radio host, 46% to 36%.
Meanwhile, former Democratic Del. Jay Jones holds a 47% to 38% lead over incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares.
While Democrats lead across the board, the poll also highlights significant uncertainty: nearly half of independents — 47% — remain undecided in all three races.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who has spent months working to raise his national profile, remains in relatively good standing with his Republican base but is struggling with independents.
Among registered voters, 49% said they approve of the job Youngkin is doing, while 39% disapprove. The Republican governor enjoys overwhelming support from his party (84%) but low ratings among Democrats (20%). Independents are split, with 51% disapproving. That marks a slight decline from December, when Youngkin had a 51% approval rating and 38% disapproval.
President Donald Trump, who remains the GOP’s most dominant figure nationally, is faring far worse with Virginia voters. Just 40% approve of the job he is doing, while 55% disapprove.
Trump’s numbers highlight a stark partisan divide — he enjoys 84% approval among Republicans but faces near-universal disapproval from Democrats (93%) and strong rejection from independents (66%).
When asked to identify the issue most influencing their vote, 28% of Virginia voters named the rising cost of living — far and away the top concern. Women’s reproductive rights (14%) and immigration (14%) followed, rounding out the top three.
This marks a notable shift from the December 2024 poll, when 58% of voters said the cost of living was their top issue and 14% pointed to K-12 education as their second priority.
The change indicates a possible reframing of the 2025 campaign narrative — with economic pressures and civil liberties now front and center as Virginians prepare to choose their next leaders.
“The poll results show a clear message from the voters: Performance matters, and so do priorities. This poll should be a wake-up call,” Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia and the nation’s first elected Black governor, said in a statement.
“Governor Youngkin’s slipping numbers among independents and the overwhelming disapproval of Trump make clear that Virginia voters are not buying political spin. They want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women’s rights and immigration policies. The shift from education to economic and personal freedoms shows an engaged electorate.”
Wilder added, “As always has been maintained in this space, money and its influence will play a pivotal role in all of the elections. The people are speaking. The question is: Are the ‘leaders’ listening?”
The Summer 2025 Commonwealth Poll is based on telephone interviews with a representative sample of 809 adults aged 18 and older living in Virginia. Of those, 764 respondents identified themselves as registered voters, and their responses form the basis of the findings referenced in this release. Interviews were conducted via landline (80) and cell phone (729), including 558 respondents who did not have a landline.
The poll’s margin of error is 4.16 percentage points.
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Author: Markus Schmidt
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