Skewed Poll: Harris, Caruso Top 2026 in UCI Gubernatorial Poll

A new University of California, Irvine School of Social Ecology poll released Wednesday found that former Vice President Kamala Harris still has a commanding lead in the 2026 California Gubernatorial race with 24% of total support, with 40% of Californians currently undecided.

According to the poll, in a straight binary choice between Harris and a generic Republican, Harris currently has the edge leading 41% to 29%, with 16% undecided and 14% not voting. However, when it comes to a range of candidates, it shows where pockets of support are statewide.

The UCI SSE poll proved to be a bit skewed as they didn’t list all the current candidates in the race, and included several who have not declared yet. In addition to Harris, candidates included Developer and former Los Angeles Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso (D), former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D), Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D),  former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D), Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis (D) and Construction manager Kyle Langford (R). Of these, Harris and Caruso have yet to declare. However, the poll also didn’t include other top runners like state Superintendent Tony Thurmond (D), former state Controller Betty Yee (D), and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron and former Fox News Host Steve Hilton (R). Other major speculative candidates were not included as well, most notably Special Presidential Envoy Ric Grenell (R).

Even with these limitations, the polls showed some interesting results. In a straight Gubernatorial race, for example, Harris would with with 24% of the vote and Caruso coming in a surprising second with 9% of the vote. A distant third would be Porter with 6% of the vote, with Bianco and Villaraigosa rounding out the top 5 with 4% each. 40% in total likewise said they were currently undecided, with another 6% saying that they wouldn’t vote.

A quiet comeback for Caruso

When broken down by party, Harris is leading the Democrats with 49% of the vote, with Porter the only other candidate in the double digits with 11%. In total, 25% are also undecided. Amongst Republicans, Caruso showed a surprising 28% of the vote, followed by Bianco at 10%. A total of 38% still aren’t sure there. And then amongst independents, Harris has a small 13% total, with the nearest being Caruso with 8%. 52% of independents are currently undecided.

Amongst racial categories, Harris and Caruso have a one-two punch across the board, except with black voters. There, Harris leads, with Villaraigosa sliding into second place instead of Caruso. However, when it comes to all races, there is a unifying factor – between 40% to 50% of them are still undecided.

By region Harris holds major leads in most regions. In L.A. County she leads 25% to the next closest Caruso, who has only 11% there. Orange County/San Diego is much closer, with Harris only managing 17% support there, with both Caruso (14%) and Porter (9%) close by. In addition, the Inland Empire is sort of close as well, with Harris garnering 25%, but Caruso showing 11% and Bianco 10%.

Finally, name recognition has been proving to be an obstacle for many candidates. While only 5% of voters don’t know who Kamala Harris is, 47% don’t know Villaraigosa, 48% don’t know Porter, 55% don’t know Caruso, and 67% haven’t heard of Bianco.

“Former Vice President Kamala Harris has not entered the gubernatorial race, but if she were a candidate, voters would prefer her, according to the Poll,” said the UCI SSE team on Wednesday. “When presented with a binary choice between Harris and an unnamed Republican, 41 percent of survey respondents chose Harris, 29 percent chose the Republican, 16 percent were undecided, and 14 percent said they would not vote. Harris maintains an 11 percent net favorability rating among Californians, the highest of candidates tested. Many respondents proved to have never heard of several candidates, including those who have run statewide before.”

“The path to governor seems well-paved for Vice President Harris if she decides to run. Although she lacks majority support at the moment, people know her better than the other candidates and generally view her favorably,” added UCI SSE Dean Jon Gould.

While Caruso came as something of a surprise in the poll, the other numbers generally mirrored where figures were before. The last major poll, an Emerson College poll from a few months ago, showed Harris with 31.2%, Porter with 7.7%, Bianco with 4.2%, and Kounalakis with 2%. Undecided in that poll was 39%. The major change from that poll was simply the introduction of Caruso.

The UCI poll did show that, with another big name like a Caruso or a Grenell in there, Harris’ odds of winning go down significantly. It also showed that Bianco, Villaraigosa and Porter are still significant presences in the race, and could see wider support should Harris and Caruso not run. However, right now, everything is still banking on if Harris decides to run or not, with a similar problem brewing with Caruso’s decision.

Primary day is in about 11 months, and the current top candidates are not even in the race yet.