The voice I wanted to hear after the Tories had battered Labour on welfare reform, was Reform

Nigel, Nigel, Anderson, Anderson, Pochin, McMurdock, Tice.

The ‘famous five’ sound more like an AA Milne poem, or the fire service of Camberwick Green written like that, but the following is not a satirical hit job.

It’s a request. I want to know.

This list is of course the five MP’s Keir Starmer likes to play along with as the ‘real opposition’. Certainly recent polls have made it clear they are the ones to beat – we’ll come back to that, but in Parliament they really aren’t the opposition. I’m told Labour insiders are split over whether Starmer should have even tried that trick.

The thing is, I genuinely wanted to hear what they had to say in yesterday’s welfare debate and not leave it to another ‘I wasn’t sacked, I resigned and was moved sideways’ Zia Yusuf video on X. After all, heads of DOGE don’t always have it their own way – eh Elon?

The Opposition – that’s the real and official Conservative opposition – had a good day.

Kemi Badenoch found her better dispatch box gear and led the charge. She laid out carefully the ludicrous mess the Government had got themselves into over their welfare cuts which, by the way, aren’t even cuts.

The really effective statistic she deployed was the 3000 people that sign up to incapacity benefit every day, now. Using figures from the TPA she explained how you can now get benefits for acne, and obesity and not go to work. She also answered a number of questions about what she would do and highlighted that within a year what also doesn’t work is the welfare system itself.

She defended the last government that brought in Universal Credit and got millions into work – 800 every day they were in office – as opposed to Labour who’ve seen unemployment rise every month they’ve been.

Now people can make their own mind up on the performance. I’d suggest it was a solid case, well-argued and defended, that got to the elephant in the room – that current welfare spending is simply unsustainable. She also suggested ways the Conservatives would address that ballooning unsustainable bill, when Labour MPs got up to their stale tricks and tried to blame everything on the Tories.

Never mind mint-cake this was ‘Kendall’s fudge’.

Wrapping up the debate Helen Whately, the shadow work and pensions secretary seemed exasperated that whilst debating Labour’s watered down U-turn bill, the Government U-turned again at the 11^th hour removing almost all vestige of it’s primary (and wrong) purpose: of making Rachel Reeves’ dodgy sums add up.

“What is there left to vote for…or against” she asked. The Government won by 42 votes. Their current majority is 156.

Now all of this Conservative argument aside and without premeditated judgement or ill will, I wanted to know where Reform UK were at on this debate. I looked throughout it for one of them and not one of them spoke. Nor could I see them until the end.

Richard Tice did give an afternoon interview to Talk TV to say he’d vote against, but it was all what was wrong with Labour’s position, little of what Reform would do. No, that’s not fair, he listed two things, the reintroduction of face to face assessments and a harder look at ‘anxiety’ as a barrier to work, both of which the Tories had already called for.

As the Tories fired at Reform:  “Voting against Labour’s chaotic welfare proposals is no substitute for a proper plan for welfare reform”

Now Reform might well call that a cheek, the Tories voted against too, but before any calls of foul, we know Nigel Farage is in favour of lifting the two child benefit cap, apparently so is Sarah Pochin, I think. Farage favours nationalised Steel and wants to restart heavy industry in Wales. He’s tackled non-doms with his Britannia card the bill for which could be £34 billion. This ‘uniparty’ they love to talk about sounds increasingly like a spending-love-child of Labour… and themselves.

So, it is legitimate to ask, that in order to support the most truly vulnerable (nobody is advocating scrapping all welfare) and to move those who really can work into work, are Reform in favour of cutting the welfare budget dramatically and how? It’s not a loaded question it’s a genuinely fair one.

Bear in mind from Lord Ashcroft’s latest focus groups, it’s a question people genuinely thinking about Reform as a voting choice, are asking too. They know what Reform are against, they just aren’t sure what they are for. That the same accusation is fired at the Conservatives doesn’t stop that still being a valid question and one a Welsh voter posed in those groups:

“Now is a perfect time for them to stop going on in that Trumpian way, be a bit more grown up, tone it down. You’ve got my attention now. Win me over. What is it you’re going to do?”

Cutting DEI schemes, and aping Elon Musk’s underwhelming DOGE achievements (Nick Candy is still waiting for that big donation, or apparently to make one himself), will undoubtedly find some savings, but it isn’t going to amount to much more than a rounding up error in the welfare bill.

In a sign that the “we’ll-just-order-them-to-do-it” school of thought doesn’t always work Zia Yusuf spent time this week online as if he was taking part in Sheldon Cooper’s ‘Fun with Flags’ after the CEO of Warwickshire County Council simply said no, to their flag ban.

I still don’t know why showing support to Ukraine should be ‘verboten’ unless you feel Putin might be put out – but to be fair, I agree the elected council should direct officials (Warwickshire is no overall control by the way). However complaining an official hasn’t played ball really did smack of finding out it’s just not as easy as they love to make out. And that’s flags. Not bins, roads, street lighting and oh what was the other thing Zia complained on X about….yes, local welfare spending.

Also this week, Labour’s completely predictable failure on small boat crossings – up almost 50 per cent on this time last year in terms of illegal migrants, and a Sun editorial declaring that without a Rwanda type deterrent nothing will change, Reform made heavy play of how appalling the situation is. It is. Agreed.

Still nothing at all on what they’d do to stop it.

I’m genuinely interested. I’ve tried, it was damned hard, and we had some success but now we didn’t stop all boats.

Nigel has talked about deterrence. He’s said whilst the country keeps giving them benefits they’ll come. Alright I, like the Welsh focus group participant, am listening. Go on. So if you stop all benefits to illegal migrants, ergo you are tackling the problem assuming they’ve already got here. I’d like to see the crime figures that might boost but how do you actually stop them getting here? Sarah Pochin told a an audience in Essex this week that it’s simple, if they come here they’ll just be deported. Cue applause. Ok if only someone had thought of that, fought for that, and had some success with that, especially after a deal with Albania, whom Reform have also been focussed on this week.

Or might they just find as every party so far has, that when it comes to waves of small boats it really isn’t as simple as being a King Cnut. Again, it’s got to be a valid question to a party quite clearly doing really well in the polls, if they formed the next government, what exactly would you do?

The answers we’ve had before were either completely unworkable, illegal or underneath the surface (an unfortunate turn of phrase in the circumstances) seemed implicitly based on the deterrent of people being left to drown. Now that was most articulated by Ben Habib, who has a new outfit that isn’t Reform, however if Reform still think that’s valid, I think they should say so.

Did the last Tory Government tackle small boats and welfare spending thoroughly enough? No. But despite the ‘uniparty’ label so beloved of those Reform fans who’ve recently colonised ConHome’s comment section, the Conservative party now is nothing like Labour. It’s just not serious to say it is. They just won’t make wild promises, unthought through policy, and will tell difficult truths.

The truth may not care about your feelings, it also won’t bend to simple, easy solutions either.

I have a lot of time and respect for Nigel Farage’s chief comms man. He’s done nine years of hard yards and is far more savvy than the Labour operation. If I didn’t know he’d never accept I’d ask the Tories to bring him in. But even he must see, if the polls stay the same – and we disagree whether they will – they have to answer the question: what would you do?

The Tories have started to and there’s signs of more to come but I’m comfortable with the same searching question to both.

I don’t underestimate Reform’s chances, I never have, but I don’t want to see another government that was vague and ambiguous about its plans, get’s elected because no-one liked the others, and then watch as hard reality smacks them in the chops – as it clearly has Labour – and they’re forced to accept this ‘governing thing’ isn’t as simple and easy as they liked to make out.

That’s what’s hurting Labour right now.

An answer of ‘greater political will’ – or just demanding things harder – really, really isn’t going to cut it.

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