One third of residents on the sinking Polynesian island nation of Tuvalu want off, but only 280 people can leave for higher ground in Australia in 2025. The desperate attempt to leave comes as the island is just around 6.5 feet above sea level. By the end of the century, scientists expect it to be lost to the sea due to rising ocean levels caused by climate change.
Where is Tuvalu?
Inhabited by more than 11,000 people, Tuvalu is situated between Australia and Hawaii. The island is renowned for its scenic beauty and diverse marine life, as well as one of the globe’s lowest crime rates. However, parts of the nation are already under rising water.
With the nation likely uninhabitable within decades, residents have turned to the Australian government for help, which in late-2023 agreed to take in residents from Tuvalu through the Faleipili Union Treaty.
Thousands of residents apply for climate visas
Under the treaty, so-called “climate visas” are allowed for up to 280 Tuvaluans annually to relocate to Australia with access to permanent housing, health care, education and work. Applications opened for the first time in June 2025.
Since applications opened for Australia’s visa lottery, 1,124 have reportedly registered with family members, bringing the total number looking to relocate to 4,052 under the climate and security treaty.
Tuvalu’s ambassador to the United Nations, Tapugao Falefou, told Reuters on Sunday, June 29, that he is “startled by the huge number of people vying for this opportunity,” and the small nation is eager to know who the first climate migrants will be.
Deadline for applications approaches
The deadline for applications is July 18, with a cap of 280 people per year to ensure mass migration doesn’t cause brain drain from Tuvalu, according to officials when they announced the treaty nearly two years ago.
The phased migration is also meant to preserve the nation’s sovereignty. The treaty keeps Tuvalu’s statehood intact even if the land is submerged. It also commits Australian resources for defense and disaster relief.
A grim prediction
NASA predicts that by 2050, daily tides will leave half of the nation’s main atoll of Funafuti underwater, which is currently home to 60% of the nation’s population. NASA puts the worst-case scenario at double that, with roughly 90% of Funafuti submerged.
Tuvalu has seen sea levels rise by roughly six inches over the past three decades, which is one and half times greater than the worldwide averages. With scientists forecasting two atolls that are part of the nation to be mostly submerged by the end of the century, which will likely make the country uninhabitable.
Tuvalu, meanwhile, has built 17 acres of man-made land and is expected to build more in hopes of staying above water until at least 2100.
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Author: Alex Delia
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