US Attack Likely Set Iran Nuke Program Back Mere Months

CNN (“Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say“):

The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by seven people briefed on it.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also said on Sunday that Iran’s nuclear ambitions “have been obliterated.”

Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely “intact.” Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes.

“So the (DIA) assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” this person added.

The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but said they disagreed with it.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN in a statement: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community. The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”

Trump, who’s in the Netherlands attending this week’s NATO summit, pushed back on CNN’s report in a Truth Social post. “One of the most successful military strikes in history,” Trump wrote in the all-caps post adding, “The nuclear sites in Iran are completely destroyed!”

The US military has said the operation went as planned and that it was an “overwhelming success.”

It is still early for the US to have a comprehensive picture of the impact of the strikes, and none of the sources described how the DIA assessment compares to the view of other agencies in the intelligence community. The US is continuing to pick up intelligence, including from within Iran as they assess the damage.

It’s almost certainly too soon for a complete assessment, which would presumably require actual inspectors on the ground. But this is consistent with longstanding unclassified assessments of what was possible from an aerial strike on the facilities and, indeed, why previous administrations decided an attack was unwise.

Still, as retired Lieutenant General Charles Hamilton, who retired under duress* last year as head of Army Materiel Command, writes (“Saturday’s strike on Iran was perfectly timed“), the circumstances could hardly have been more favorable.

The bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites represents the culmination of what may be the most rehearsed, examined, and studied war plan of the last twenty years. President Trump’s swift shift from diplomacy to direct action—just a month ago, he was holding Israel at arm’s length, pursuing talks with Tehran, and warming relations with Gulf countries with little appetite for war—appears to reflect a unique convergence of favorable conditions. 

The first is Israel’s systematic and sequential degradation of Iran’s network of proxy groups since Hamas’ October 2023 attack.

A more recent development is Israel’s assault on Iran itself. Since June 9, missile attacks and special operations have degraded Iran’s air defense network, penetrated and consequently disrupt Iran’s military communications, and helped deplete and destroy perhaps half of its missile arsenal. The first two effects enabled the U.S. strikes with unprecedentedly low risk to American forces, while the last two reduced the threat of effective retaliation.

 And a third condition, of longer standing, is the state of the U.S. military’s arsenal and operational art. The GBU-57/B “bunker-buster” bombs that pulverized Iran’s Fordo facility were designed by the U.S. Air Force beginning in 2004 for exactly this mission. The 30,000-pound munitions are the only U.S. weapon that can penetrate the hundreds of feet of concrete and rock protecting Iran’s most critical nuclear infrastructure. Saturday marked their first combat use, dropped from B-2 stealth bombers, while a submarine fired Tomahawk missiles from waters south of Iran.  

Operation Midnight Hammer was one of the most complex, coordinated, and sequenced military operations ever conducted. The strike required coordination across geographic combatant commands in secrecy that limited the number of leaders aware of the timing. It required deception, deconfliction of a tight airspace corridor, and communication across every operational domain. If the attack is eventually found to have destroyed Fordo—a facility that many analysts considered virtually impregnable—it would validate two decades of military planning and technological development.

The convergence of factors that made Saturday’s operation possible was both rare and temporary. Iran’s air defenses will eventually be rebuilt, its proxy networks reconstituted, and its communication systems restored. The IRGC’s command structure will adapt to operating under compromised conditions, and new leaders will emerge to replace those eliminated by Israeli operations.

More fundamentally, Iran’s nuclear program itself will evolve. Tehran will disperse its uranium stockpiles, harden additional facilities, and could build a nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, while we don’t know the damage done at the point of enrichment, Saturday’s strike set back that timeline.

The combination of Iran’s degraded ability to intercept an attack and to retaliate in its aftermath changed the calculus. But, of course, the attack has changed Iran’s calculus.

Hamilton was a four-star, forced to retire early as a three-star after it was revealed that he’d abused his authority to advance the career of a subordinate with whom he was having an affair. So far as I can ascertain, though, he was otherwise a highly competent officer and qualified to make assessments of operations.