The Plain Truth [Even If Frustrating To Some]

Iran, Israel | MEMRI Daily Brief No. 796

Following the war, the bare reality emerges: Trump’s goals are:

A. Stability in the non-stop turbulent Muslim world, preferably through regional dictatorships and reaching a deal with them (rather than seeking to eradicate them), be it the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir, (a jihadist who recommended Trump for a Nobel Prize for peace…) Saudi Arabia’s Muhammad bin Salman, the United Arab Emirates Muhammad Bin Zayed, and Egypt’s Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi (to name just a few.)

B. Low and stable oil prices.

C. Recognition of his leadership through the Nobel Prize.

D. Succeeding in the mid-term elections, without which he might become politically paralyzed, (and that success demands all of the above.)

Another goal is the need to solve the public affairs wound of Gaza, which all Arab countries and Europe demand of Trump.

President Trump is not interested in a replay of the Neo-Conservatives’ experiments in exporting democracy that ended with jihadist control in Afghanistan and Iranian control in Iraq.

President Trump will have no business with the repressed ethnic minorities nor with anti-regime Persians because this will only create chaos and a rise in oil prices. Such an uprising is not even possible as it would require leadership, weapons, money, and food. All are unavailable. Let alone the fact that exporting Western values – such as democracy, freedom, etc. – is a recipe for disaster.

Europe joins Trump in this understanding and in the focus on stability and on low and stable oil prices that can only be guaranteed through dictators with whom Europe works well.

At this point in time Khamenei is granted immunity and Israel cannot touch him because President Trump does not want chaos now or ever.

Since Khamenei is accepted and protected, so will be Hamas, whom America has already recognized and talked to. If they do not come up with crazy demands, they will continue to rule Gaza and, in time, Israel will be forced to withdraw and will be allowed to take military action when a threat is imminent just like before the war.

If Netanyahu stands in the way, Israel will not get warplanes and ammunition, so he cannot do much in opposition to the above.

In the coming months, Iran’s prevailing within the Muslim world will be clear. Their threat to the oil of the Middle East will make them hegemonic in the region. KSA and UAE will slide gradually toward Iran’s hegemony.[1]

What Trump seems to be committed to is preventing the nuclear threat, which constitutes a problem not only for Israel. But the Iranian regime could still buy elements of these weapons from the U.S. “ally,” Pakistan.

The other Iranian threats – missiles, terrorism by its proxies, and cyberattacks – will continue. Israel will continue to have to fight for its life. With regard to the long-range missiles, which can reach Europe, Israel will have some European support.

The few past anti-regime disturbances that occurred in Iran in the last decade were inconsequential.

For the foreseeable future, the reality created in the last decades by the Islamic revolution will prevail.[2] The only hope for a possible change is if the Sunni world rebels against the hegemonic ambitions of the Shia. But even if that happens – it probably will not – it is not clear how that could be of any benefit to the West, since it will be led by Islamist powers hostile to the West, such as Turkey and Qatar.

AUTHOR

YIGAL CARMON

Yigal Carmon is Founder and President of MEMRI

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