Futures and yields are tumbling, and gold and oil are surging following reports of successive explosions in Iran as a result of what Al Arabiya reports are Israeli airstrikes; Axios has confirmed that the Israeli Air Force conducted a strike in Iran, “attacking its biggest and best-armed adversary, without clear backing from the U.S.” It was not immediately clear who Israel is targeting.
As Axios adds, sirens are sounding across Israel on Thursday night. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a special state of emergency across the entire country, and said he expects retaliation after the preemptive Iran strike.
“Following the State of Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against the state of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future,” Katz said.
An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson said only “necessary” activities should take place in Israel starting Friday morning local time. That includes a ban on “educational activities, gatherings and workplaces, with the exception of essential businesses.”
Ahead of the Israeli strikes, the US notified several allies in private on Thursday that Israeli strikes were imminent and made clear it was not involved, one of the Axios sources said.
Sure enough, moments after the airstrikes, CNN reported that Trump is convening a cabinet level meeting.
Meanwhile, as Trump said earlier today, his administration already told Israel it would not participate in any strikes on the nuclear program, however, the U.S. has previously helped defend Israel from Iranian attacks and would likely do so again if this strike kicks off a retaliatory cycle according to Axios.
In doing so, the US president will likely lose substantial backing from those who do not want to be associated with neocons. But at least Lindsay Graham will have wonderful things to say about Trump.
While it is unclear what the targets of Iran’s airstrikes are, some have speculated that since the targets are residential buildings that these are targeted assassinations.
In kneejerk response, stock futures are tumbling…
… as are bond yields…
… while Oil (where we recently warned that the record shorts will be badly burned)…
… and gold are soaring.
The question now is whether this is all performative theater, like the two cases of “non-war” a year ago when the two sides exchanges violently dramatic if completely ineffective strikes against each other, or if this is the real thing and shortly Iran’s nuclear facilities will be a pile of rubble.
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