Israel May Attack Iran Soon

NYT (“Israel Appears Ready to Attack Iran, Officials in U.S. and Europe Say“):

Israel appears to be preparing to launch an attack soon on Iran, according to officials in the United States and Europe, a step that could further inflame the Middle East and derail or delay efforts by the Trump administration to broker a deal to cut off Iran’s path to building a nuclear bomb.

The concern about a potential Israeli strike and the prospect of retaliation by Iran led the United States on Wednesday to withdraw diplomats from Iraq and authorize the voluntary departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East.

It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel might be preparing. But the rising tensions come after months in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pressed President Trump to seize on what Israel sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to a strike.

Mr. Trump waved off another plan by Israel several months ago to attack Iran, insisting that he wanted a chance to negotiate a deal with Tehran that would choke off Iran’s ability to produce more nuclear fuel for a bomb. Two weeks ago, Mr. Trump said he had warned Mr. Netanyahu about launching a strike while U.S. negotiations with Iran were underway.

It is not clear how much effort Mr. Trump made to block Mr. Netanyahu again this time, but the president has appeared less optimistic in recent days about the prospects for a diplomatic settlement after Iran’s supreme leader rejected an administration proposal that would have effectively phased out Iran’s ability to enrich uranium on its soil. Mr. Netanyahu has walked up to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities in the past, only to back off at the last minute.

[…]

Iran’s atomic program has progressed dramatically since Mr. Trump abandoned the 2015 deal. Analysts say that Iran is now on the brink of being able to manufacture enough nuclear material to fuel 10 nuclear weapons.

Constructing a workable device, if Iran chose to pursue that option, could take several more months. But many top Israeli officials already consider Iran’s progress to be unacceptable and have openly threatened military action against its nuclear facilities.

Many Israeli officials believe they have a golden opportunity to solve a decades-long problem. Israel has recently decimated Hezbollah and Hamas, Iranian proxy groups that Tehran has long relied on as a deterrent to Israeli action. And Israeli airstrikes last year severely reduced Iran’s air defense systems.

Some analysts warn that Iran has been restoring those defenses, making Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear program riskier by the week. It is also unclear whether Israel can inflict decisive damage on Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. military assistance.

We’ve seen similar warnings before, but they seem to be widespread in this instance. And the precautionary recalling of US diplomatic personnel is certainly a strong indicator that we’re taking it seriously.

It’s not clear from the reports what the targets would be, but presumably, it would be the nuclear development facilities. Targeting them has been talked about for more than twenty years now, with the consensus that Iran has hardened the targets sufficiently to render them immune to an Osirak-like attack. We may be about to put that theory to a test.