Shocking 89% Spike: What’s Up with the Vanishing Act?

Poor children are experiencing absenteeism rates almost twice as high as pre-pandemic levels, with research showing COVID-era lockdowns have created a crisis that disproportionately harms our most vulnerable students.

Key Takeaways

• Chronic absenteeism has more than doubled from 17% in 2019 to 37% in 2023 in states like North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia, with low-income students suffering the most severe impacts.
• National chronic absenteeism increased by 89% by 2022 compared to three years prior, with rates remaining significantly elevated in 2024 despite some improvement.
• Income disparity is the primary driver of attendance problems, with researchers finding that when income is controlled for, racial gaps in absenteeism become relatively minor.
• Traditional intervention methods including home visits, rewards, and community outreach have largely failed to reverse the post-pandemic attendance crisis.
• Some COVID emergency responses, such as relaxed graduation requirements and online makeup work options, may have inadvertently contributed to ongoing absenteeism problems.

COVID Lockdown Policies Created a Lasting Attendance Crisis

The disastrous school closure policies pushed by leftist officials during COVID have created an absenteeism epidemic that continues to plague American education. While national rates have improved slightly from their 2022 peak of 28% to 23% in 2023, they remain catastrophically higher than pre-pandemic levels. The damage is particularly severe in low-income communities, where chronic absenteeism – defined as missing 10% or more of the school year – has become endemic. This widening attendance gap between economic classes represents yet another way that ill-conceived pandemic policies have harmed those already struggling.

“Absences are both more common for everybody, but they are also more extreme,” explains Jacob Kirksey, assistant professor at Texas Tech University

The statistics show a disturbing pattern that continues years after schools reopened. In state after state, the numbers tell the same story – poorest students missing the most school. In Virginia, for example, the attendance gap between low-income and non-low-income students grew from 7.2 percentage points in 2018-19 to 19.5 points in 2021-22. Similar patterns have emerged in North Carolina and other states that track detailed attendance data. This represents a massive failure of leadership by the same officials who insisted on keeping schools closed despite evidence that it would harm children.

Income Gap Drives Attendance Problems

Research has consistently shown that family income, not race, is the primary predictor of school attendance. USC education professor Morgan Polikoff’s analysis found that when controlling for income, racial gaps in attendance become relatively insignificant. This inconvenient truth undermines the left’s preferred narrative that emphasizes racial factors over economic ones. The data clearly shows that liberal policies that undermine economic opportunity and family stability directly contribute to education problems that disproportionately affect low-income children.

“The income gap really was the main driver that showed up over and over again,” explains Morgan Polikoff, professor at University of Southern California

Absenteeism rates vary significantly by state, reflecting both policy differences and demographic factors. Alabama reported an 18 percent chronic absenteeism rate in 2022, which improved to 15 percent by 2024. In contrast, Washington, D.C., a jurisdiction under complete Democrat control, had absenteeism peak near an astounding 50 percent before falling to a still-catastrophic 40 percent. These numbers represent millions of children missing crucial educational opportunities, a crisis that persists while the Biden administration focuses on identity politics rather than basic educational needs.

Failed Interventions and Unintended Consequences

Despite numerous attempts to address chronic absenteeism through conventional means such as home visits, rewards programs, and community outreach efforts, these interventions have largely failed to make significant headway in low-income communities. The persistence of elevated absenteeism rates years after schools reopened suggests that more fundamental issues are at play. Transportation difficulties, housing insecurity, and changing student attitudes toward in-person education all contribute to the ongoing crisis. Many students have become accustomed to the flexibility of remote learning during the pandemic.

“Absenteeism is what the corona did,” explained a 21-year-old student, reflecting the changed attitudes that persist among many young people.

Ironically, some of the emergency measures implemented during the pandemic may have inadvertently contributed to the problem. Relaxed graduation requirements, online platforms for making up missed work, and diminished consequences for absences created a perception that daily attendance is less essential. Meanwhile, teacher absenteeism has also increased, although research indicates this has minimal impact on student attendance patterns. What remains clear is that the left’s preferred pandemic policies have created educational damage that will affect an entire generation of American students.