Ukraine’s Attack on Russian Strategic Forces Will Harden’s Putin Resolve to Subdue It

Tatiana Stanovaya is a pro-Western analyst with Carnegie Center.

Many in Western audiences view Ukraine’s attacks on Russian strategic forces as a move that strengthens Kyiv’s negotiating position. These strikes demonstrate to Russia that Ukraine has capabilities previously thought unimaginable, and signal to the West that Ukraine retains “cards” with which to continue the fight. The idea is that the Kremlin—as a collective decision-making entity—will gradually be compelled to concede.

However, in my assessment, the effect will likely be the opposite. Based on years—now decades—of observing Putin’s decision-making, I believe such attacks will only reinforce his determination to dismantle the Ukrainian state in its current form. He will respond by becoming more hardline and less compliant. The perception that Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation poses a long-term existential threat will harden, and his resolve to make it “friendly” will intensify, regardless of the cost.

The West’s greatest weakness in facing a desperate and confrontational Russia lies in its credibility. The Russian leadership sees no plausible way in which the West can “win” the war. Weapons deliveries, authorisation for long-range strikes, completely unrealistic discussions of troop deployments (which, thankfully, have subsided), and funding packages do not convince Moscow that the West can reverse the situation on the battlefield. It will not change Putin’s calculus, incite a palace coup, or spark a popular revolution. The current policies reinforce anti-Western, anti-Ukrainian, and pro-state sentiment in Russia.

To be clear, I am not arguing that the West should withdraw its support for Ukraine, nor that Ukraine should surrender. Rather, as a long-time Russian political analyst, I aim to explain the current trajectory: Putin’s Russia is now even more prepared to fight indefinitely, and increasingly convinced that it is winning and possesses the necessary resources to continue not only through 2025 but well into 2026 and beyond. Moreover, there remains considerable scope for further radicalisation and escalation. Striking at Russia’s vulnerable points without sufficient military agency to defend and secure Ukraine is a course of action that may carry consequences many currently underestimate.

Source: X

Putin on collapsed bridges:

https://twitter.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1930311863327437126

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