President Biden and former President Trump have bypassed the longstanding debate commission and scheduled their first contest for well ahead of the summer party conventions. Will this bold move matter?
Reporting for the NYT (“For Biden and Trump, a Debate Rematch With Even Greater Risks and Rewards“), Lisa Lerer, Shane Goldmacher, Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman set the stage:
The debate between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump this week will be the highest-stakes moment of their rematch, plunging two presidents into an extraordinarily early confrontation before a divided and angry nation.
For Mr. Biden, the debate in Atlanta offers an opportunity to remind voters of the chaos of his predecessor’s leadership, his criminal convictions and to warn of an even darker future should he win a second term. For Mr. Trump, it’s a chance to make his case that America has grown more expensive, weaker and more dangerous under his successor.
But the face-off on Thursday also poses significant risks for the two men — both of them the oldest candidates ever to compete in a presidential race — who have been locked in a contentious rivalry defined by mutual hatred for more than four years. That animosity heightens the evening’s unpredictability. A notable misstep — a physical stumble, a mental lapse or a barrage of too-personal insults — could reverberate for months, because of the unusually long period until they meet again for the second debate in September.
[…]
This presidential debate will be the earliest in the nation’s history and notably different from those familiar to many Americans. Hosted by CNN rather than a nonpartisan commission, it will be simulcast on more than five networks, without a live audience and without opening statements. Each candidate will have two minutes to answer questions, followed by one-minute rebuttals and responses to the rebuttals, and their microphones will be muted when it is not their turn to speak.
[…]
Almost no one — including some of Mr. Biden’s top strategists — expects the debate to immediately upend a race between two extremely well-defined candidates. Biden aides view the debate as the starting bell for the general election, an event that will provide a high-profile opportunity to define the terrain of the contest. They sought successfully to move the debate months earlier to help prod the public to pay closer attention.
[…]
Both candidates are, in their own ways, incumbents. Yet, the debate reverses their standing from 2020. Four years ago, it was Mr. Trump who was forced to defend his record in the midst of a raging pandemic. Now, it is Mr. Biden who will face attacks over his stewardship of an economy that, while strong by some measures, has been defined for many voters by high prices and a tight housing market.
The Editors of The Atlantic weigh in with “A Test of Coherency at This Year’s Debate.”
On the debate stage, the candidates each face a test to prove that they have what it takes to be in office. For Trump, the debate will be one of his first public forays before a national audience since leaving the White House—and concern about his cognitive well-being will be center stage. Until now, people have largely tuned out the former president, Jonathan Karl argued on Washington Week With The Atlantic. And despite his omnipresence as a political figure, this is not “the same Donald Trump of the Trump presidency,” Karl said. “His ideas have gotten fuzzy.”
Meanwhile, Biden will almost certainly face attacks about his frailty as concern about his physical health and mental presence has become central to arguments against his candidacy. Both candidates face a certain kind of danger in taking the stage, but whereas Biden needs to prove he’s not senile, “the expectations for Trump are higher,” Anne Applebaum said. “It will be harder for Trump to appear coherent, to sound coherent.”
“One of the things that’s at stake in this election is: Do we vote on policy, do we vote on what’s really happening in the economy, or do we vote on bombast and identity politics and, essentially, lies that suit whatever biases you have?” Applebaum asked. “The debate might show that.”
Ken Thomas and Alex Leary (“Biden vs. Trump: Will the First 2024 Debate Jolt the Race?“) weigh in for WSJ:
Thursday’s showdown in Atlanta, the first of two debates scheduled for this year, provides the campaign rivals their biggest platform to establish the stakes of the race. It marks the earliest encounter ever by two presumptive presidential nominees since the beginning of televised debates in 1960 and will offer the many voters who haven’t fully tuned in to the campaign a chance to see the two side by side.
“That’s the power of this moment. The political world will stop, sit still and focus its attention on this debate for one night,” said Kevin Madden, an adviser to Sen. Mitt Romney’s presidential campaigns.
[…]
Ahead of the debate, Biden has repeatedly attacked Trump’s character while Trump has time and again assailed the president’s cognitive abilities, telling audiences Biden can’t find his way off a stage. Each faces the challenge of winning over a small but crucial group of voters who aren’t happy with either choice.
Millions more will be tuning in expecting fireworks, and Biden and Trump are poised to deliver. Both share a common objective as they prepare for the debate: how to get under the other’s skin.
WaPo’s Dan Balz (“Let’s see if a debate can change the trajectory of voter sentiment“):
Though there have been some predictable attempts to lower expectations, the two candidates and their allies have spent time and money portraying each other in the most negative light possible: Trump as an unhinged felon on the one hand; Biden as a frail and not mentally sharp incumbent on the other.
By the end of their 90-minute encounter, whoever has done the more effective job of countering those depictions could be judged the winner. The debate is being called Biden’s best opportunity to change the trajectory of the campaign, but both candidates have much to gain or lose by their performance.
After a lengthy discussion of the polls, which were flat for months but have ticked slightly in Biden’s direction since Trump’s conviction on multiple felony charges, Balz notes,
Stories about polls abound, as news organizations attempt to analyze different parts of the electorate. The Post recently published a major survey of what are called the “Deciders”: voters in the battleground states who are not firmly committed or whose voting history leaves open the question of whether they will vote for president in November.
That poll showed that many of these Deciders are more naturally part of Biden’s coalition but are considering a vote for one of the non-major-party candidates. These voters are less enthusiastic about the choice between Biden and Trump, are less likely to think their vote really matters and are paying less attention than those who are firmly committed.
Meanwhile, there’s this (“Trump Suggests Biden May Use Supplements to Get ‘Jacked Up’ for Debate“):
In his last scheduled rally before he takes the stage for a presidential debate, former President Donald J. Trump on Saturday mocked President Biden over his preparations, suggesting his opponent might be using medical supplements.
“Right now, crooked Joe has gone to a log cabin to ‘study,’” Mr. Trump said at a rally in Philadelphia, pantomiming quotation marks with his hands. “He’s sleeping now, because they want to get him good and strong. So a little before debate time, he gets a shot in the ass.”
[…]
“I say he’ll come out all jacked up, right?” Mr. Trump said, referring to Mr. Biden. Moments later, Mr. Trump, who has previously demanded Mr. Biden take a drug test before their debate, seemed to accuse Mr. Biden of using illegal drugs.
“I’m sure he’ll be prepared,” Mr. Trump said. He paused, then, referring to an incident in which a bag of cocaine was found in the guest lobby of the West Wing last year, added with a smirk: “Whatever happened to all that cocaine that was missing a month ago from the White House?” (The Secret Service closed its investigation into that episode after security video failed to provide any leads and no fingerprints were found on the bag.)
Though Mr. Trump built anticipation for the debate with his insistence for months that he would be willing to challenge Mr. Biden “anytime, anywhere, any place,” on Saturday, the former president criticized debate rules his campaign had agreed to, including the network hosting the event and the lack of a live audience.
“It’s like death,” Mr. Trump said. “This could be the most boring — or it could be the most exciting. Who knows?”
To the extent the matchup is seen as a test of cognitive ability, I’d bet on Trump’s incoherent ranting working against him. But one never knows.
Pretty much everything about this race is unprecedented. It’s the first matchup of two men who have been President of the United States in the modern era. No two candidates have ever been better known, with both having been household names for decades. They are, as has been constantly noted, far and away the two oldest major party nominees to face off. And this is all happening in the most bifurcated information environment in our history.*
That Trump is also the first former President and first major party presidential nominee to be a convicted felon is, of course, noteworthy and will doubtless be noted many times in the debate. I just doubt that many people who are undecided between the two men will have their minds changed based on that. That Trump is a shady businessman and a womanizer have long been baked into his public persona.Still, something has changed the dynamic of the race, if ever so slightly. The polling aggregates have moved a percentage point or so in Biden’s favor since the New York verdict.
Regardless, the expectations for both men are laughably low. If Biden can get through the night without falling down and drooling all over himself, he’ll defy expectations. Ditto if Trump can manage to avoid nonsensical rambling. If I had to bet, Biden is more likely to succeed.
*While hyper-partisan newspapers were the norm from the colonial era well into the 19th Century, they were localized.
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Author: James Joyner
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