Angus Parsad-Wyatt is Chief Executive of ConservativeHome.
Welcome to the second part of week four of ConservativeHome’s Campaign Notebook – our insider snapshot from Conservative campaigns across the UK in the lead up to the general election on 4 July.
Earlier this week we brought you the latest from the campaign against Labour in Wales, and in part two today we travel from the Midlands to Mid-Devon, visiting seven seats across the Cotswolds, Somerset, and Devon where both Labour and the Liberal Democrats are hoping to unseat the Conservatives.
The Cotswolds
We start this leg of our journey in the village of Steeple Aston, in the constituency of Banbury. This seat – currently represented by Victoria Prentis, the Attorney Gneral – has returned a Conservative Member of Parliament at every election for over one hundred years. Prentis’ majority at the last election was 16,813, and the lowest Conservative majority of the past fifty years was 4,737 in 1997. This is a safe Conservative seat. But, as regular readers of ConservativeHome’s Campaign Notebook will know, at this election there is no such thing.
One of the first houses we come to demonstrates the volatility of the electorate: a man washing his car blasts one of Prentis’ team: “We voted Conservative last time, but then we went through absolute hell during Covid, whilst your lot partied in Downing Street, and she [Prentis] supported them. You should be ashamed. Never again.”
An older lady in a cottage up the hill trots out the old ‘we never see you between elections’ line; to which Prentis warmly responds “I live ten minutes down the road in Somerton, I was born locally and my family farm the land around here.” The voter is pleasantly surprised, but seems to remain undecided as to how she will vote on 4 July.
The unexpected calling of the election means teams have a lot of ground to cover over the six-week campaign. “It’s all happened quite quickly and we have lots of work to do.” Prentis tells us that “national policy announcements have, by and large, been helpful in persuading reticent voters”, with national service and the triple lock plus for pensions going down well.
However, the pace of the campaign, combined with new boundaries and new constituencies, means mistakes are made. Along with her leaflet, Prentis’ team had to deliver a letter to residents confirming that they are in the Banbury constituency, after some mailings from the neighbouring Bicester and Woodstock constituency found their way across the border in error.
Given the national polls, and how close the results in this clutch of Oxfordshire seats are expected to be, no candidate will be happy with making mistakes, nor having to spend time and money correcting others’. On the other hand, receiving an additional leaflet from the Conservatives – even if not the correct candidate – makes it harder for voters in Banbury to say they haven’t heard from the Party.
So for our next Cotswolds stop, we head a short way down the road to the source of the erroneous mailings – the newly-created constituency of Bicester and Woodstock. This seat is being contested for the Conservatives by Rupert Harrison, former economic advisor and Chief of Staff to George Osborne as Chancellor.
As a new constituency, it is difficult to predict exactly how Bicester & Woodstock will vote on 4 July, but the neighbouring seats which jettisoned wards to create this new constituency give some indication: three voted Conservative in 2019 (Banbury, Henley, Witney), and one voted Liberal Democrat (Oxford West & Abingdon). Whilst expectations are therefore that this will be a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Lib Dems; some polls suggest this could even be a finely-balanced three-way fight involving Labour too.
That uncertainty over who is the main challenger to the Conservatives is playing out on the ground too. As we drive through the constituency, we observe a very visible, very passive-aggressive battle raging between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
We are referring to alternating displays of those blighting ‘yard signs’ – annoying for two reasons: the clutter they add to the streetscape, especially in picturesque rural areas such as this; and the Americanisation of our politics which has brought them here (so much so that most people refer to them as ‘yard signs’ rather than ‘garden signs’).
In the town of Woodstock – home to Blenheim Palace, the birthplace of Winston Churchill – that split is reflected amongst voters. Outside of the Woodstock Coffee Shop – which proudly displays a sign quoting the Daily Telegraph heralding this as “the best coffee shop in Oxfordshire”(the coffee is indeed very good) – a young couple tell us that they might end up cancelling each other’s votes out: “we know we don’t want the Tories, but we’re not sure about Labour either. We like the Lib Dems but they won’t form the government, so we’re not sure. We may just do one and one”.
A little further along, in Market Place, two separate voters tell us they’ll be backing the Liberal Democrats – one “because of Brexit and all the mess that followed” – but a third voter says she will be “sticking with the Conservatives”.
Like we saw in Brecon earlier this week, this is another seat where the Conservatives’ best hope of winning will be to sneak up the middle if the left splits evenly between Labour and the Lib Dems.
However, one Cotswolds seat where the choice is much clearer is Cheltenham. In the past forty years, this seat has elected both Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs, none with a majority greater than 6,645 votes (Lib Dems, 1997). During that time, it has always been a two-horse race, with Labour never coming better than third. In fact, at the last general election this was one of five constituencies in England where the Labour Party lost their deposit having not achieved 5 per cent of the vote.
Cheltenham is currently represented by Alex Chalk, the Justice Secretary, who had a majority of just 981 votes in 2019. Every poll shows – and the expectation amongst voters is – that this seat will turn yellow in a few weeks. But Chalk and his team are fighting hard for every vote: “I accept that I am the underdog, but then I always have been here – in 2015, ’17, ‘19” Chalk tells us, “but there is a lot of recognition and appreciation for our record of delivery locally, and we’re finding that people can be talked around on the doorstep”. Chalk’s job of convincing wavering Conservative voters to back him again is made slightly easier by Reform UK not fielding a candidate here.
Chalk’s calling card does not carry the party logo but instead features a smiling photo of him playing with his son, and a list of achievements and investments he has secured across the constituency. So does that personal brand and record of delivery cut through with voters?
Speaking to some of them in the Lansdown area of the town, it is evident he is both known and liked – “Alex is a great guy, he will definitely get our votes”, “Absolutely, good luck!” and “Yes, I think he’s been good for the town. Despite what’s happened [nationally] I will probably vote for him again.” But that response is not universal – one voter who tells us she is a Conservative Party member
When the result feels almost predictable – as it does nationally – maintaining an energised campaign and not going down without a fight can be hard. But as Chalk tells his team (and himself): “We are bloodied but unbounded, and we will fight on until the end.” A noble spirit, worth bottling.
Somerset & Devon
We start the second part of this leg in the town of Keynsham, in the constituency of North East Somerset and Hanham. This seat is another that has evolved under the recent boundary changes out of two former constituencies – North East Somerset, which for the entirety of its fourteen-year existence since 2010 has elected Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg; and Kingswood, which turned Conservative in the same year, but in February of this year fell to Labour in the by-election.
That result, especially in the context of the boundary changes, heralds a warning for Rees-Mogg: his 14,729 majority is under threat at this election.
“Labour are certainly going for me personally. Their leaflet is largely more about me rather than their own policies (or lack thereof)” the former Leader of the House of Commons tells ConservativeHome. “But both Labour and the Liberal Democrats think they can win” he explains – only 1,209 votes separated the two parties in second and third place in 2019.
Left-leaning voters may well appear divided, but the latest polling suggests they may be coalescing around Labour as the most likely route to unseat Rees-Mogg. In that scenario, does Rees-Mogg worry, as many of his Conservative colleagues do, that Reform could take away just enough votes from him to accidentally let in a Labour MP?
“Not really. My squeeze message to those thinking of voting for Reform is that I share a lot of the same views, I am 90% on your side, so you may as well vote for me instead” Rees-Mogg states, going on to praise Nigel Farage, as he has since done elsewhere.
Rees-Mogg is a marmite politician: liked by many on the right, including many ConservativeHome readers; but despised by many on the left. So, what do voters on the high street think of him and his chances? “I just moved to the area, and I am excited to be able to vote for Jacob Rees-Mogg. He speaks sense.” one middle-aged woman tells us outside Costa.
Her enthusiasm was shortly matched by another lady with the opposing view, who said she was “very excited for the election” because she is voting Labour and “they will win here, and we can final beat Mogg”.
Further along the high street, an older man angrily tells us that he has no interest at all in the election: “If that lot don’t care about us, why should we care about them?” and a young mum who votes Conservative in 2019 says she is undecided but is “not impressed with the Party recently” and thinks that “it is time for change”. There’s that word again, and it could prove fatal for Rees-Mogg.
Back on the road, we skirt around the south of Bristol and head to Clevedon on the Severn Estuary. This seaside town is in the constituency of North Somerset which, in various guises, has elected Conservatives to Parliament for over three-quarters of a century. For the past thirty-two years, it has been represented by Liam Fox, whose majority at the last election was 17,536.
However, some polls predict that this seat will go to Labour for the first time in its history on 4 July. If it does, it may well come as both a surprise and a disappointment to some of the voters in Clevedon, who seem genuinely appreciative of Fox’s work as their MP. “I never normally vote Conservative, but you’ve helped me and my family, so I will vote for you” one woman says on her doorstep.
A former postal worker has a similar story: “You helped me in my fight to get my pension, and I will never forget that, you have my support”. Fox tells us that in thirty-two years he has met and helped over 8,000 individuals at his surgeries. That sort of incumbency is difficult to pick up in headline polls.
Fox has been an effective MP, and he is up for the fight. “We’ve been campaigning more since January, and it’s certainly looking better since the campaign was called, so we’re feeling encouraged” Fox tells us, and it’s easy to see why if more voters across the constituency have personal stories of how he’s helped them.
But what of his challengers? “Labour is busy fighting to save Thangam [Debbonaire] from the Greens in Bristol; the Liberal Democrats are focusing on Taunton; and Reform is nowhere to be seen.” Fox summarises. “But we know we can’t take anything for granted, so we keep working, engaging voters on the big issues like security and the economy, and talking about our record here.”
Fox’s experience is demonstrable, and if he can keep his seat when all about him are losing theirs, he will be both a good constituency MP and an invaluable ‘elder statesman’ in the future of the Conservative Party.
Our next stop is Somerset’s county town of Taunton, in the constituency of Taunton and Wellington. This seat has been represented by former DEFRA minister Rebecca Pow since 2015, and her majority at the last election stood at 11,700.
Other than electing a Conservative MP for one term in 2001, this seat (or rather its pre-boundary state as ‘Taunton Deane’) was held by the Liberal Democrats between 1997 and 2015. Since then, Pow’s majority has risen and subsequently fallen, the seat’s boundaries have changed to make it ‘less winnable’ for the Conservatives. Aseries of local election results have indicated a resurgent Liberal Democrat force, including them winning 19 of the 20 seats on Taunton Town Council. This is the third successive election for Lib Dem candidate Gideon Amos.
We join Pow in the Halcon area of Taunton, where the team is delivering leaflets and speaking to voters. It is a hard fight but “there are still a lot of people who are undecided between us and the Lib Dems” Pow tells us. A few doors along we find one such voter, who “just doesn’t know yet”, to whom Pow rattles off an impressive list of her local campaigns and achievements, including a hospital upgrade, regeneration investment, and a new railway station for Wellington.
Another couple tells us they are likely to split the vote in their household – “Rebecca has been a good MP and I have always voted Conservative, so I probably will” starts the man; “but I can’t look past what’s happened nationally, so I’m thinking of going Lib Dem” the woman adds.
Amongst the uninterested and undecided, one voter says despite having been a lifelong Conservative, he will now be voting Liberal Democrat. “After everything that happened with Covid and Boris, I will never vote Conservative again. You made us all look stupid.”
Another resident says he feels hounded by the Lib Dems: “The election was called three weeks ago, and I’ve already had five things through the letterbox from them” he tells us, handing us a bundle from his hallway table. “I wasn’t sure how I was going to vote, and I still haven’t decided, but after all this, it certainly won’t be for the Liberal Democrats. What a waste.”
Whilst some voters may be put off by the Lib Dems’ approach, their very visible campaign (yes, including ‘yard signs’) will leave voters in Taunton & Wellington in no doubt as to who they should vote for if they want change from the Conservatives.
If our journey through Somerset has confirmed one thing it is that the political map of this area, stretching along the M5 from Cheltenham to Exeter, will likely look very different when we wake up on 5 July, with many seats changing hands. However, there are some areas which, with a fair wind, may offer a glimmer of blue amongst the sea of red and yellow; and the newly-created seat of Honiton and Sidmouth, could be one of them.
Much of this seat comes from the former East Devon constituency, which was carved up under the boundary changes, and which elected Conservative Simon Jupp in 2019 with a majority of 6,708. Jupp’s new seat of Honiton and Sidmouth also takes in some parts of the former Tiverton and Honiton constituency, which used to elect Conservative MPs, until the Lib Dems swung it in the 2022 by-election, triggered by the resignation of Neil Parish (of tractor fame).
As this seat neighbours Taunton and Wellington, we made a short visit to join Jupp and his team as they spoke to voters in the village of Broadhembury. This is a well-drilled, energetic team, each taking a handful of leaflets and a list of who to speak to, and striding off up each of the lanes leading out from the centre of the village.
Good organisation does make a difference in campaigning, if not in terms of outcome then certainly in terms of activists’ morale. “We’re working for every vote, and we’re encouraged and enthused by what we’re finding” Jupp says.
One gentleman tells us he has always voted Conseravtive and will do so again – “as we get closer to the day, I think more people will see Labour are offering nothing and will stick with the Conservatives too.” As we catch our breath at the top of one particular hill, a woman shares our sense of exhaustion “Oh God, is it still three weeks?!” but she is coy about who she will vote for.
Jupp knocks on the door of one couple who immediately recognise him, having visited them in April. “We were undecided then, and we still are, but less so now because we recognise how hard you’re working” the gentleman says, adding that he has previously voted Conservative. His wife adds: “Our fear is about what your party does next – we don’t want Farage or anybody like that taking over, we’d prefer someone like Tom Tugendhat”.
Jupp replies “If you vote for me and I am elected then you get a hard-working local MP who is from that One Nation wing of the party. If you vote Liberal Democrat or anyone else, it weakens the opposition and strengthens Starmer’s majority.” The lines may be familiar to regular readers and activists, but they work – the couple say they will think about it but are now more likely to vote Conservative.
Next week we’ll be reporting on two very different ‘North East’ campaigns – the North East of England, and the North East of Scotland. Remember, you can also read back on our Campaign Notebook reports from Sir Iain Duncan Smith’s campaign in Chingford & Woodford Green, Grant Shapps’ fight in Welwyn Hatfield, the key electoral battlegrounds in the Midlands, and the Liberal Democrat targets in Surrey.
The post Angus Parsad-Wyatt: Campaign notebook, week four (part two). Current and former ministers in trouble across Somerset, Devon and the Cotswolds. appeared first on Conservative Home.
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Author: Angus Parsad-Wyatt
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