Party conference season is nearly upon us. Here’s a tale of four cities.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…” – A Tale of Two Cities, Charles Dickens.

One week from today, Reform UK’s party conference will open in Birmingham, kickstarting a six-week long season of political party conferences. The Liberal Democrats follow in Bournemouth, Labour in Liverpool, then the Conservatives in Manchester. It is indeed a tale of four cities, and each will tell us something about where British politics may be heading next.

Aside from the four parties leading the polls, there is also the conferences of the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, and possibly an inaugural gathering of the Corbyn/Sultana gang, but ‘a tale of eight cities’ is neither as catchy nor as brief for your perusal this Friday morning. So here’s your primer on the main four:

The best of times: Reform UK – Birmingham, 5–6 September

 Reform enters party conference season as the party of the moment. This week’s  YouGov poll has Reform on 28 per cent, 8 points ahead of Labour on 20 per cent. That is Labour’s lowest rating of this Parliament and Reform’s cue to build on a busy summer of announcements, campaigns, and defections, and claim momentum heading into Birmingham. If you are Nigel Farage, these look like the best of times.

Yet the risk is obvious.

Will Birmingham prove to be a professional, policy-serious conference that reassures sceptics, or a rally that frightens the horses?

James Heale argues in The Spectator that Farage is keen to demonstrate how much his party has changed in the past year.

But on the other hand, their conference features a late-night ‘after party’, quasi-jingoistic venue names like ‘Britannia’ and ‘Nelson’, and pyrotechnics expected on the main stage (actual fireworks, not just clashes between Farage and whoever has fallen out of favour this month). This loud, brash, American-style approach to conference may generate TikTok videos, headlines, and a sense of excitement, but does it risk undermining Reform’s attempts to portray themselves as a government-in-waiting?

The test next week is whether the party can demonstrate discipline, deliver serious policy announcements, and engage soundly with the gathering media, business and public affairs sectors.

The age of foolishness: Liberal Democrats – Bournemouth, 20–23 September

Ed Davey’s announcement this week that he will boycott the state banquet for President Trump may get him headlines, and some back-patting from party members; but is it statesmanlike or student-union theatre on the eve of conference, when the party says it wants to look serious to centrist, business-minded voters? That is the Bournemouth question.

With Labour sinking in the polls and threatened from all sides, and the Conservatives pivoting right to blunt Reform’s advance, there is a space for the Lib Dems. But if they are to seize it, they need a programme, not protest. Substance, not stunt. Will Bournemouth deliver that? Judging by their conference guide featuring Ed Davey on a jet ski, it seems unlikely.

The winter of despair: Labour – Liverpool, 28 September–1 October

 Labour heads to Liverpool with party unity frayed by the welfare bill row, the painful U-turn on the winter fuel payment, and a summer dominated by small boat crossings and asylum hotel protests. Both the government’s and Keir Starmer’s personal approval ratings are deep in negative territory, and the latest voting-intention numbers are stark. Things can only get better, right?

Wrong. Starmer may be about to carry out a reshuffle of his ministers early next week. Get it right and there’s an opportunity to restore some discipline and unity, but reshuffles rarely go to plan (see Rayner’s ever-expanding job title in 2021). A misstep could prove even more problematic for the Prime Minister, with jilted backbenchers starting to sharpen their knives.

One thing we can expect to hear coming out of the conference centre in Liverpool is some early signalling on the Budget.

The Chancellor has the unenviable position of having to say something, without saying what she will say a few weeks later. However, some kites have already been flown – property taxes, landlord national insurance, inheritance tax – and we may hear of other revenue-raisers during their conference. Whilst she cannot pre-empt the Budget, Reeves will likely lay the groundwork for what is to come, and the excuses for why that is (some phrases for your bingo cards: ‘14 years’, ‘black hole’).

The danger is that Labour’s conference becomes mired in defending past decisions to themselves, in a bid to keep their party together, rather than setting out a clear and galvanising vision for the country. Beware: the electorate is not in a position to tolerate navel-gazing.

The season of darkness: Conservatives – Manchester, 5–8 October

One year on from the worst electoral defeat in modern memory, languishing third in the polls on a meagre 17 per cent, and with no leadership election to create an artificial buzz, there will be little for Tories to feel excited about when they head to Manchester.

But the Conservatives will try to use the media attention granted to the party of His Majesty’s Official Opposition to generate headlines on two key areas – the party’s policy on the ECHR, and regaining credibility on the economy.

The conclusion of the Wolfson review into whether the UK should leave the ECHR is expected to be presented at conference.

When the review was announced by Kemi Badenoch in June, some saw it as a sensible way to work out all of the problems and pitfalls of withdrawing from the Convention before announcing that you will do so; whereas others felt it was an unnecessarily slow-and-steady approach of a party not yet understanding how to be in opposition. If, as is expected, a commitment to leave the ECHR is made in Manchester, it must be supported by a credible, detailed – dare I say ‘oven-ready’ – plan that is compatible with a strong border and tough asylum system, and accompanied by a legal route map and clear safeguards. Otherwise, what will have been the point of these past three months, other than ceding further ground to Reform.

This year’s Conservative Party Conference is an opportunity for the party to start looking forward, making the case for conservatism, and sketching out for voters – or at least its own members – what and who the party is for.

If the Conservatives want to be the party of low taxes again, which taxes would they cut and how would they pay for that?

If the Conservatives want to be the party of homeownership again, how will they make it easier to build and buy homes?

If the Conservatives want a country ready for the future, what are their plans on AI, technology, energy, infrastructure, transport and more?

In the year leading up to last year’s general election, Labour went to great lengths to improve their relationships with business and, despite ‘Croissant-gate’, they won support for doing so. But they have damaged that trust, and this is now a critical moment for the Conservatives to reclaim their mantle as the party of business.

But looking past what the Conservatives might say, they need to know who they want to say it to.

They need to address both the lost and the loyal. The instinct to narrowcast to disaffected Reform-leaners is understandable, but a single-issue approach will not rebuild a national voter coalition. Voters currently see Reform as the stick to beat a flailing Labour government with. They will only see the Conservatives as the alternative to both Labour and Reform if Manchester feels like the start of a forward plan, not a group therapy session.

Kemi Badenoch likes to repeat that the Conservative Party is a changed party ‘under new leadership’. This year’s conference is the time to start showing it rather than just saying it. A good conference could see the Conservatives’ poll rating stabilise around the low-20s as we head into winter, and in turn stem some of the expected losses next May. A bad conference will not just threaten Kemi’s leadership, but also the Conservative Party’s existence.

Birmingham will tell us if Reform’s rise has substance, and whether they will continue to enjoy the best of times. Bournemouth will show whether the Lib Dems can muster gravitas, or consign themselves to the age of foolishness. Liverpool will signal whether Labour has a long-term plan beyond firefighting, or whether it tips the country into a winter of despair. And Manchester will see the Conservatives either continue in the season of darkness, or take a first step towards the season of light.

That is this season’s tale.

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