Live: NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings Drop After the Bell – Will Shares Surge?

NVIDIA’s earnings are just moments away – head to our new blog where new updates will be posted.

NVIDIA is set to report in 8 minutes. As a reminder, our live blog coverage has moved (if you’re not automatically redirected).

Simply click here to access our new earnings coverage that will cover NVIDIA’s earnings release at 4:20 p.m. ET.

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Live: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Continue To Surge After Q2 Earnings

The first tech earnings tonight (Snowflake and CrowdStrike) are about to hit.

We’ll post an update with how they look. Both stocks are rising from the AI supercycle.

As a reminder, NVIDIA earnings are expected at 4:20 p.m. and we will post immediate news and analysis the moment their earnings release. Simply stay on this page and new updates will load automatically. 

But don’t put on AC/DC’s ‘Thunder’ just yet….

Because we expect NVIDIA to drop earnings at about 4:20 p.m. ET. That’s still about 20 minutes away.

As a reminder, the moment earnings hit, we will begin posting news and analysis giving you insight into why the stock is either rising or falling. All updates will post below automatically. 

All you have to do is stay on this page. 

NVIDIA has soundly beaten Wall Street’s expectations in each of the past 8 quarters.

So it might surprise you to learn that out of those eight times, the stock was:

• Up the next day 3 times
• Down the next day 3 times
• Flat twice

Of course, the big picture is that while NVIDIA was flat the day after earnings overall in recent years, its stock has absolutely taken off in that period. That’s the importance of having a long-term perspective and not reacting too much to earnings.

On that note, if you haven’t checked out our AI Investor Podcast, you might be making a huge mistake.

Each week we break down the biggest news in the AI space and invest $500,000 to our top AI ideas. NVIDIA is one of our stocks, but we’ve also singled out winners like Credo. That stock is up 341% since we added it to our portfolio last October. Overall, the stocks we’ve added to this (free) portfolio are up more than 30% on average.

You can listen to our latest episode in the Spotify player below. Next episode we’ll be breaking down NVIDIA’s earnings in detail, so you can subscribe to make sure you get our full analysis in the days to come!

NVIDIA is in the middle of a massive ramp of its GB200 systems and will soon begin scaling GB300 systems as well.

These racks sell for millions of dollars (a GB200 NVL72 server is typically cited at about $3 million).

The question is, how high can the launch of Blackwell systems lift NVIDIA’s earnings? Estimates for this Fiscal year currently stand at $4.37. Estimates for next year stand at $6.04.

That’s 38% earnings growth, which is impressive. And yet, what NVIDIA delivers could be significantly ahead of that Wall Street figure.

In a recent note to clients, JPMorgan noted that many clients are now looking for $7 in EPS in calendar 2026, and their in house analyst Harlan Sur sees this as ‘easily achievable.’

If the whisper number for NVIDIA among institutional buyers is $7 in EPS next year, that means the company is trading for about 26X earnings. That’s not a small number for a company trading for $4.5 trillion numbers, but it’s also not unreasonable for a company that would still be growing earnings by nearly 60% ($7 in 2026 EPS versus $4.37 in expectations this year).

When AMD issued guidance, they excluded sales to China.

How NVIDIA’s guidance incorporates sales to China could have a big impact on where shares trade tomorrow.

For example, NVIDIA could report slightly over Wall Street expectations for revenue next quarter and initially drop, but then rise after commentary that the company is being conservative incorporating sales to China in its guidance.

Bottom line: How NVIDIA treats sales to China could cause a relatively large swing in its guidance for next quarter. We’ll be watching closely and providing commentary right after earnings hit. 

We’re now about 45 minutes from the closing bell and it’s a fairly sleepy day in the market.

• NVIDIA shares are now down about .3%.
• Broadcom is doing slightly better, shares are up .5%.
• The biggest winner in the technology space is software stocks. Salesforce and ServiceNow are both up about 2.4%. Blowout earnings from MongoDB and bullish comments from OKTA in their earnings report are driving stronger gains in the sector.

If you’re invested in NVIDIA because you believe AI will become technology’s largest mega-trend ever, here are a couple other stocks to watch after hours tonight:

• Snowflake: Is seen as one of the biggest beneficiaries from the growth of AI (alongside competitor Databricks). Wall Street expects sales to jump by 25%.
• Crowdstrike: Wall Street expects sales to grow 19% from last quarter. Crowdstrike’s primary competitor – Palo Alto Networks – recently reported guidance for next Fiscal year that easily surpassed Wall Street’s expectations and shares soared the next day.

If you’re looking for more AI investing ideas, make sure to check out our AI Investor Podcast. We invest $500,000 into our favorite AI stocks (NVIDIA is in the portfolio). Trust us when we say the show will quickly become your number one source for AI investing news and stock ideas.

You can also preview an episode from the Spotify podcast player below:

One note before NVIDIA’s earnings – be sure to watch what revenue growth they report for their ‘Networking’ sales. That segment had been disappointing late last year, but saw impressive growth last quarter.

Many other stocks that benefit from AI networking (examples include Astera Labs and Arista Networks) reported outstanding results already this earnings season.

With NVIDIA announcing Q/Q growth of 64% in their networking segment last quarter (versus 5% Q/Q for Compute growth), networking sales could become a powerful catalyst as NVIDIA’s B200 systems begin to dominate their revenue mix in Q3.

One reason to be cautious ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings tonight.

Headed into earnings, the company is trading for 36X forward earnings. That’s up from 29X headed into last quarter. 

A big reason for this P/E expansion is optimism building about NVIDIA’s growth in the years to come. Yet, it also raises near-term expectations. NVIDIA could report excellent earnings (we expect them to) and still see shares fall tomorrow.

As we noted earlier in the live blog, it’s likely forward guidance will need to be in excess of $55 billion for shares to see gains after-hours.

As of 1:53 p.m. ET, NVIDIA shares are little changed for the day, they’re up .09%.

The broader market is also little changed with the Nasdaq up .19%. All eyes are focused on after-hours when NVIDIA reports earnings.