A former senior adviser to Democrat President Bill Clinton tempered hopes that the Democratic Party will see huge gains in the 2026 midterms, asserting that Republicans will be “insulated” by “structural changes” in the country’s politics.
Doug Sosnik, who was a senior adviser to Clinton in both terms, shared his analysis in a memo and in an interview with Politico published Wednesday.
Sosnik said that the best predictor of midterm elections is the approval rating of the sitting president. With Trump’s approval rating at 44.5% as of this week, according to Nate Silver, Sosnik said, “Trump and the Republicans should be headed to a really bad midterm election.”
However, “[D]ue to structural changes in our politics, which are largely due to a realignment in our politics based on education levels, even if the Democrats were to have a really great election cycle in the midterms, there’s going to be a limit to how many seats they can win back due to these structural changes,” Sosnik told Politico.
He added, “But because of these changes in our politics, due to realignment based on education, they’ll be more insulated than they would have been in the past from a tsunami-type of midterm.”
Sosnik pointed out that Republicans “enjoy significantly more control over congressional redistricting than Democrats.” Four red states are considering mid-decade reapportionment compared to two blue states. Texas completed redistricting which will likely net Republicans five congressional seats.
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Author: Faith Novak
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