Texas, California Kick off Redistricting Wars

Legislatures in Texas and California this week both advanced bills to redraw their congressional maps halfway through the census cycle, kicking off what could become a partisan redistricting war over control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which is currently closely divided.

In Texas, House Republicans on Wednesday easily (88-52) advanced a bill to redraw the congressional map in a way that shifts five U.S. House seats toward the GOP. Democratic representatives initially fled the state to deny the House a quorum, but they eventually returned after the month-long special session had expired. Governor Greg Abbott (R) immediately called a second special session, and House leaders took steps to ensure the Democrats did not flee the state again.

The redistricting bill now heads to the Texas Senate. The Senate passed the bill easily during the first special session (Democratic senators did not abscond), but it must vote again in the new session. If the bill reaches Abbott’s desk, he is expected to sign it.

In California, the Democrat-controlled legislature has moved much more quickly. On Thursday, Governor Gavin Newsom (D) signed two bills to redraw California’s congressional districts that the legislature passed earlier in the day. These bills aim to move five congressional seats from Republican to Democrat. “We’re responding to what occurred in Texas. We’re neutralizing what occurred,” argued Newsom, “because when all things are equal, we’re all playing by the same rules.”

As a matter of fact, California and Texas do not play by the same redistricting rules. In 2008 and 2010, California voters passed a ballot measure that authorized a bipartisan commission to redraw California’s state and federal legislative districts. This commission drew the lines that California has used since 2022. Thus, before the California legislature can redraw the map, they need the voters’ permission to supersede the map created by the redistricting commission. To that end, Governor Newsom has called a special election on November 4, a mere 10 weeks away.

It remains unclear whether California’s voters will approve this redistricting gambit, as contradictory early polling points in both directions. Only 15 years ago, California voters overwhelmingly approved the redistricting commission (61.2% to 38.7%); it would be a remarkable shift if they undermined its authority now.

In fact, many California voters likely have some inkling that the district map drawn by the bipartisan commission already tilts heavily in Democrats’ favor. In 2022, California Democrats won 63.3% of the congressional vote but almost 77% of the seats. In 2024, Democrats won 60.4% of the vote but 82.6% of the seats. Somehow, without an obvious partisan gerrymander by Sacramento legislatures, California Democrats have maneuvered themselves into quite a comfortable advantage.

If California voters do second the legislature’s effort to neutralize Texas’s redistricting effort, it might kick off a redistricting war that Democrats are not well positioned to win. By Punchbowl’s calculation, “Republicans can get 12 or more new seats fairly easily. Democrats can get two or three without amending a state constitution, and eight if Newsom’s California gambit works.”

A New York Times analysis helps explain why: there are 15 states with unified Democratic control and 26 with unified Republican control. But partisan gain is not possible in all these states, either because a state only has one congressional seat (like Delaware or Wyoming), or because the dominant party already holds all the congressional seats (like Massachusetts or Oklahoma).

This leaves eight Democrat-controlled states with Republican-held districts and 15 Republican-controlled states with Democrat-held districts. However, in five of these Democrat-controlled states, the legislature is not in control of drawing the map. This leaves only three Democrat-controlled states (besides California) where the legislature could potentially redraw the map to knock Republicans out of Congress, compared to 15 states where Republicans could do the opposite.

Across these three states (Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon), Democrats have already maximized their advantage, leaving a total of five Republicans in Congress across the three states. It would be extremely difficult to draw maps that would favor the Democrats any further. Maryland Democrats already tried this census cycle, but their gerrymander was struck down in court. Likewise, New York (another large, Democrat-controlled state) already tried to override its redistricting commission to enact a partisan gerrymander, which was also struck down in court.

Some analysts believe California Democrats are pushing their new map simply to oppose Trump. The Trump administration provided the impetus for Texas’s redistricting effort, in hopes of giving the president’s party a more effective House majority in Congress. California Democrats may not believe they can win a nationwide redistricting war, but they do believe their base wants to see them stand tow-to-tow with Trump.

Thus, California Assemblyman Marc Berman (D), who sponsored one of the redistricting bills, offered this half-hearted defense on Thursday, “We don’t want this fight, and we didn’t choose this fight, but with our democracy on the line, we cannot and will not run away from this fight.” Begun, the Redistricting Wars have.

AUTHOR

Joshua Arnold

Joshua Arnold is a senior writer at The Washington Stand.

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