A new alliance in South Asia threatens to shift regional power dynamics, raising concerns about India’s influence.
Story Highlights
- The ouster of Bangladesh’s former leader has led to a rapid thaw in relations with Pakistan.
- High-level diplomatic meetings and trade agreements mark the new era of cooperation.
- This rapprochement could challenge India’s regional influence and strengthen ties with China.
- Historical grievances remain, but strategic interests are driving the partnership forward.
Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations Thaw After Leadership Change
The diplomatic landscape in South Asia is undergoing significant changes with the recent rapprochement between Pakistan and Bangladesh. This shift follows the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, resulting in an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus. The interim government in Dhaka has emphasized diversifying foreign partnerships, in contrast to Sheikh Hasina’s administration, which had maintained limited engagement with Pakistan due to unresolved historical and political disputes. This pivot has enabled a series of high-level diplomatic engagements, breaking decades of frostiness between the two nations.
In October 2024, the first significant diplomatic contact between the two nations in over ten years took place. This was followed by the resumption of direct maritime trade between Karachi and Chittagong in November 2024. These developments have opened the door for improved travel and business opportunities, indicating a fresh chapter in bilateral relations. By August 2025, both countries had approved a visa-free entry agreement for diplomats and officials, further cementing their commitment to cooperation.
Strategic Implications for Regional Dynamics
The strategic implications of this rapprochement are profound, particularly in the context of regional power dynamics involving India and China. As Bangladesh seeks to reduce its reliance on India and the U.S., Pakistan stands to gain a strategic ally in the region. This new alliance could potentially challenge India’s influence, especially given the growing role of China as a strategic partner to both Pakistan and Bangladesh. China’s support of this trilateral axis aims to counter India’s dominance in South Asia.
While the warming of relations has been swift, historical grievances, particularly those stemming from the 1971 war, remain unresolved. According to Dr. Farzana Shaikh, South Asia expert at Chatham House, unresolved historical tensions, particularly surrounding the events of 1971, remain sensitive and could complicate efforts at long-term normalization despite current cooperation. However, the pragmatic approach of both governments reflects a shared interest in economic and strategic gains, which currently outweigh these long-standing tensions.
Economic and Political Ramifications
The economic ramifications of this renewed partnership are significant, with bilateral trade reaching $865 million in 2024-25. This increase in trade and investment is expected to boost the logistics, manufacturing, and services sectors in both countries. Socially, greater cultural and educational exchanges are anticipated, fostering people-to-people connections that could further solidify the diplomatic gains made thus far.
PM Sheikh Hasina ousted, flees Bangladesh. Army takes over, names an interim govt minus the Awami League.
Celebrations/chaos on the streets + the PM’s official residence.
How did it come to this? What next for Dhaka? What does this mean for India? Watch Vantage tonight @firstpost pic.twitter.com/ph1qDpcm68— Palki Sharma (@palkisu) August 5, 2024
Analysts such as Happymon Jacob, international relations scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, note that the warming of Pakistan-Bangladesh ties could reduce India’s relative influence in the region, potentially reshaping South Asia’s strategic balance. This strategic recalibration could lead to increased India-Pakistan rivalry and concerns about destabilization in India’s northeast. Current negotiations indicate both governments are considering additional memorandums of understanding and cooperative agreements, suggesting a likely continuation of closer ties.
Sources:
Arab News
The Express Tribune
CSCR
Economic Times
European Institute for International Relations
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