Geopolitics 101

The first lesson of geopolitics is that no leader gets to act in a vacuum.

You make a move, and your adversary or competitor makes a countermove. It’s chess, not checkers.

Putin and Trump and now deeply engaged in the Ukraine Gambit. Vlad started it off in 2014 when he seized the Crimea in a virtually bloodless coup.

For seven years, the players maneuvered to a standoff over the center ground. And then Biden brought out his Queen, declaring US support for bringing Ukraine into NATO, something that had (rightfully) been taboo until then.

I have repeatedly warned my 12-year old grandson against prematurely playing his Queen.

“Bring her out and I will chase her,” I tell him. And of course, being 12 years old, he brings her out nonetheless. And I chase her– and it usually doesn’t end well for the kid.

How ironic that brain-dead Joe Biden was the kid playing chess. But then, as Trump has said many times, he was never very smart even when he was a young man.

And so, Putin chased the Queen by invading Ukraine in February 2022. It’s been very bloody ever since.

Trump has been trying to shift the balance since he returned to office in January. He initially thought he could maneuver Putin and Zelenskyy to the table through enticements and threats, as I have discussed many times in this space. That failed.

So then Trump deployed more pieces, and ultimately got Putin to join him for the Alaska summit on August 15.

As he announced shortly thereafter, he fully expected Putin to hold a one-on-one with Zelenskyy the very next day or shortly thereafter. That has not happened.

Remember, it’s chess. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov makes his countermove, announcing that Putin was very happy to hold such a summit, but not until the “agenda” had been agreed to by Zelenskyy.

When you learn what he means by the “agenda” – total surrender of all of the Donbas, including the parts Russia has not conquered – you understand why Zelenskyy could not agree. Those things need to be decided at the negotiating table.

Trump made his countermove over Truth Social, hinting on Thursday that the US might allow Ukraine to use American stand-off weapons to attack iconic St. Petersburg, deep inside Russian territory.

“It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country,” Trump wrote. “It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offens[e]. There is no chance of winning!”

Putin’s countered by reaching out to Indian Prime Minister Modi, one of his biggest oil clients, and sweetening his oil purchase agreement.

Now Modi wants to meet China’s President Xi to discuss joint energy policy against the United States. And Trump had been counting on his personal “friendship” with Modi…! Not in chess.

Also this week the Brits are finally rising up against the endless waves of Muslim immigration, following in part the lead — get this! — of the Swedes, who have taken steps over the past two years to limit the number of Muslim asylum seekers entering the country.

As someone married to a Swedish woman I can tell you authoritatively: when you finally manage to anger the Swedes you had better watch out.

On Friday morning, the FBI raided John Bolton’s suburban Maryland home and his Washington, DC office, in a probe ordered by FBI director Kash Patel.

I was honored when John endorsed me for US Congress in Maryland in 2012, and when we were jointly nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for our work on Iran.

But I agree with President Trump that Bolton’s tell-all book about his 17 months as national security advisor was an act of disloyalty. We will now see if the Department of Justice determines it also betrayed his non-disclosure agreement.

As always, you can listen to me discuss these topics and more on Prophecy Today Weekend live at 1 PM on Saturday on 104.9 FM or 550 AM in the Jacksonville, Florida area, or by using the Jacksonville Way Radio app. Later, you can listen to the podcast here.

Yours in freedom.

©2025 Kenneth R. Timmerman. All rights reserved.

Ken Timmerman’s 14th book of non-fiction, THE IRAN HOUSE: Tales of Revolution, Persecution, War, and Intrigue, can be ordered by clicking here or by viewing my author’s page, here. 

Raising Olives in Provence, can be ordered by clicking here.