US military preparing attacks against Mexican cartels: Report

The U.S. military is now preparing attacks against cartels inside Mexico, according to a report from Ken Klippenstein. Experts on the matter tell Straight Arrow News that doing so could upset the balance of cooperation between the neighboring countries in ways that extend beyond fighting cartels.

Plan for attacks

According to the report that cites three anonymous military sources, those attacks are expected to be ready by mid-September. Details on exactly what those attacks will be are scarce and it’s unclear if the U.S. plans to put military boots on the ground inside Mexico.

U.S.-Mexico relations have been strained at times during the first seven months of the second Trump administration, but there has been some cooperation between the two countries when it comes to cartels.

“Not only is Donald Trump uniquely focused on TCOs [transnational criminal organizations, the official name for cartels], having designated them terrorists in one of his first Executive Orders, but he has shown himself to be willing to take unilateral action despite potentially negative political ramifications,” one senior intelligence official told Klippenstein.

That source added that Trump may be doing this without involvement or approval from the Mexican government. Mexico’s president has made it clear she does not want U.S. military operations in her country.

“Any country would find it inappropriate if foreign soldiers without permission were being actively deployed on their territory,” Dr. Nathan Jones, associate professor of securities studies at Sam Houston State University, told Straight Arrow News.

There does seem to be some cooperation. Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, commander of NORTHCOM, reportedly met with two high-ranking Mexican military officials last month.

“What I fear is that that significant cooperation could be lost if there were to be American soldiers on Mexican soil,” Jones said. “And if that cooperation gets lost, the question is, is it worth it to have done it is targeting one high value target, or even a few, or even 10 or many high value targets. Is that worth the loss of Mexican cooperation on a whole plethora of other issues?”

CIA involvement

The CIA recently increased secret drone flights over Mexico, looking specifically for fentanyl labs, according to The New York Times. The CIA has previously been involved in operations inside Mexico.

This most recent drone program began under the Biden administration. This most recent increase in flights shows they may be part of upcoming operations against cartels.

“There’s increased intelligence that the United States can gather using DoD resources because they’ve been designated [as] terrorist organizations,” Jones said. “So you could have American law enforcement by permission, being present in Mexico, working with Mexican military units like the Mexican marines, which have historically been very, very effective at capturing high value targets with specialized vetted units.”

Targeting cartels

While it’s unclear what the military action might look like, what’s clear is the target: major cartels with connections to fentanyl trafficking.

Finding specific targets can be difficult, as we’ve seen in the past with high-value targets like Osama bin Laden. But there’s a big difference in finding someone like bin Laden as opposed to active drug traffickers.

“It took a long time to find Bin Laden, because Bin Laden wasn’t talking to anybody, and he wasn’t of operational significance,” Jones said. “He was a strategic visionary leader. He was putting out the occasional letter, but basically, he was completely cut off using a one-man courier.”

Jones said active cartel leaders leave a bit more of a trail.

“Even ‘El Chapo’ Guzman had people near him who were using phones who could be targeted by U.S. signal intelligence, be it law enforcement or military,” Jones said. “And so, he could be found once his network, you know, once there was a focus on targeting his network. And we could see this for a lot of high-value targets.”

Mexican cooperation

If the U.S. does start taking out high-level cartel members and interrupting cartel operations, having Mexico involved could help. Jones said cartels will find a way to continue to operate by any means necessary.

“We’ve seen this before,” Jones said. “The kingpin strikes happen. They fragment. The cartels end up fighting each other more violently and they become more predatory on the local population. They lose their drug source contacts, so they start using extortion and all kinds of other criminal activities to make up the difference in terms of their bottom line.”

But building up Mexican security forces could make that harder on the cartels.

“Mexican local and state law enforcement needs to be built up,” Jones said. “That state capacity needs to get better. So, when the kingpin strikes happen and these lower-level individuals come up and fill the ranks, they’re going to be combated at the local and state levels.”

The U.S. strategy at this point is unclear, but Jones said the strategy is the most important part.

“I have no doubt that if the United States were to send in, say, special operations, raids of some kind, I have no doubt that anywhere they go, they will defeat Mexican cartels,” Jones said. “It’s also completely irrelevant to the broader strategic context. You can win every battle and still lose a war. We saw that in Vietnam.”